Whether the Penguins open the playoffs next week at home or on the road is out of their hands. All they can control, as Mike Sullivan likes to say, is what they can control.
For them, that means a win tonight against the Rangers would seal a first-round matchup against the Islanders. Which team has home-ice advantage will depend on what the Islanders do against the Capitals in Washington. And should the Penguins lose and the Hurricanes beat the Flyers, the Penguins would face the division-champion Capitals.
That is why the Penguins are leaving nothing to chance against the Rangers tonight. All expected players will be in the lineup, Sullivan confirmed after Saturday's morning skate at PPG Paints Arena. Given his team's track record against the Blueshirts this season, winning shouldn't be a problem, right?
To review, the Penguins have gone 3-0 against New York this season, outscoring the Rangers 18-9. That includes a convincing 5-2 win at Madison Square Garden just a dozen days ago. The power play has gone 3-for-9 (33.3 percent) against New York, while the penalty kill has killed off six of eight chances. Tonight's starting goalie, as usual, is Matt Murray. He is 6-0 against the Rangers in his career. Oh, and want to talk about some symbolic numbers? Sidney Crosby has 87 points in 66 games against New York.
Cakewalk, right?
Well, maybe you didn't see the third period of Friday night's game against the Blue Jackets. With Columbus desperately needing two points to clinch a playoff spot and holding a 2-1 lead late in the third period, New York's Pavel Buchnevich struck with seven seconds remaining to send the game into overtime. Though the Rangers eventually lost in a shootout, their third loss in a row, that didn't look like a team that had nothing to play for.
"They're going to come out hard, they're going to empty the tanks," Bryan Rust was telling me Saturday morning of the Rangers. "I guess everybody on that team is playing for something. They've got some young guys trying to make a statement. They're going to come out and work hard and we have to be ready for that."
On Friday night, the Rangers jumped out to a 1-0 lead on the Blue Jackets on Chris Kreider's 28th goal of the season. The Penguins should be familiar with how that works. They had to overcome an early, two-goal deficit in their Feb. 25 meeting at MSG. That was one of just eight games that the Penguins have won this season when trailing after the first period.
And then there's this: David Quinn is 0-3 against Sullivan this season. Don't think the Rangers' coach wouldn't like to beat his mentor and friend one time in his first NHL season? It was Sullivan who went to bat for Quinn, his former Boston University teammate, to get the Rangers job last summer.
"He can't go 4-0, can he?" Quinn joked Saturday night before the opening faceoff. "No, listen, obviously, he's got a heckuva team and has done a heckuva job. They've got a lot at stake. We want to win the hockey game."
As expected, Quinn's team has gone through some growing pains this season. After a surprising 12-8-2 start, reality has set in. Continuing last year's rebuild, they jettisoned popular veterans Mats Zuccarrello and Kevin Hayes at the Feb. 25 trade deadline and are now 31-36-14 and will miss the playoffs for the second straight spring.
"He knows the game. He's a good student of the game. He's a good communicator," Sullivan said of Quinn. "His team plays hard. They're competitive. The game tonight, we expect no different. We know it's going to be a competitive game. They've got a lot of good, young players that play with a lot of enthusiasm. And, to a certain extent, they're a reflection of their coach and their coaching staff. He's a competitive guy."
•The Rangers didn't hold a morning skate but Quinn spoke at 5:20 p.m. He announced that forward Vinni Lettieri is out and Boo Nieves is in the lineup. Defenseman Tony DeAngelo is out with a lower-body injury and Fredrik Claesson will skate in his place. John Gilmour is also out.
• Alexandar Georgiev, who started last night vs. the Blue Jackets, will start again. Henrik Lundqvist is 29-24-11 with a .911 save percentage and 2.60 goals-against average vs. the Penguins in his career. However, his last win against them came on Feb. 10, 2016. Quinn said the conversations about not playing his future Hall of Fame goalie haven't been difficult.
"Hank has been unbelievable," Quinn said. "He's got a lot of hockey left him, in my opinion. But it's been a hard year for him. He's acknowledged it. But every conversation I've had with him, we've been on the same page about what's happening and needs to happen. It's been a lot of fun coaching ing him."
• The Penguins have four players who will have played every game this season: Jake Guentzel, Jack Johnson and, of course, Phil Kessel. And having played two extra games with the Ducks, Marcus Pettersson will be the only player to appear in 84 games this season and will become only the 10th to do so since the NHL adopted an 82-game schedule. Guentzel, who is one goal shy of 40 for the season, will have played in every game for the second-straight season. Despite his rugged style of play, like taking Tyler Bertuzzi's stick to his face Thursday night, Johnson will play in all 82 for the fifth time in his career. Kessel has played in 773 consecutive games, the eighth-longest streak all-time.
"Everyone goes through bumps and bruises," Sullivan said of the four. "There are nights where guys could say 'I can't go tonight,' but they don't. They continue to play because they want to play. They love the game and want to help our team win. I think it's just a credit to the individuals."
• A day after holding an extremely optional practice in Cranberry, the Penguins held an extremely optional skate at their home arena. Sullivan said that all the players who didn't practice Friday were on the ice this morning. That list includes Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, Matt Cullen and Kessel.
• Brian Dumoulin was on the ice prior to Saturday's skate along with Zach Aston-Reese and Chad Ruhwedel. Sullivan called Dumoulin's progress "encouraging from our standpoint." The defenseman will miss his third straight game with a lower-body injury, while Aston-Reese (hip) will miss his 13th and Ruhwedel (upper-body) his 19th.
• Beginning with their last game against the Rangers, the Penguins' 19th-ranked penalty kill has yielded a power-play goal in each of the last five games. Sullivan didn't sound overly-concerned but allowed there needs to be greater "detail and execution."
BRADFORD'S VIEW
Sullivan is 1-2 in Game No. 82 during his four-year Penguins tenure. The only regular-season finale he's won was last year's 4-0 victory over the Senators. The Penguins closed out the previous two seasons with losses to the Flyers and Rangers, respectively, and still went on to win the Stanley Cup in 2016 and '17.
That's not to suggest the Penguins tank this one for superstitious reasons. Quite the opposite. The Penguins have alternated wins and losses the past four games. When they've been good, they've been quite good. When they're not, they are meh.
Besides the opportunity for home-ice advantage in the first-round, the Penguins should want to enter the playoffs on a high note and feeling good about themselves. In addition to the return of Malkin and Letang combined with Kessel's even-strength goal, Thursday night's win over the speedy, young Red Wings was one to build on.
One prediction: Guentzel will get his 40th tonight.
