By the time the Pirates shipped Tyler Glasnow to the Tampa Bay Rays in July as part of the Chris Archer deal, he had devolved from a former top-25 prospect into a jittery, control-challenged mop-up reliever. His final line in Pittsburgh: 141.1 innings pitched, a 5.79 ERA and 5.8 walks per nine frames. He posted the fifth-worst ERA in the 133-year history of the franchise among pitchers with 140+ innings pitched. Instead of joining Jameson Taillon atop the Pirates rotation, Glasnow was traded away at far less than his full value and in desperate need of an overhaul.
Nearly a year later, one of the pitchers involved in that deal is forging an early Cy Young Award campaign. It's just not the one that Pirates fans, and baseball pundits at large, expected.
While Archer will lug a mid-fours ERA into his next start, Glasnow looks like a superstar. The Pirates went big-game hunting at last year's deadline, making the kind of deal that they had long been criticized for avoiding. And now, it's coming back to bite them. Although the Pittsburgh version of Glasnow chucked spotty fastballs low in the zone and quickly fell behind hitters, limiting the effectiveness of his curveball, the Tampa Bay version making the most of his elite velocity and racking up whiffs with his breaking stuff. Glasnow is currently on the shelf for a month-plus with a mild forearm strain, but his performance has been breath-taking.
Glasnow began his transformation in earnest during the second half of the 2018 season, when the Rays re-inserted him into the starting rotation. He continued to strike out a boat load of batters (10.4 per nine innings), but he managed to get his walks to a manageable level (3.1 per nine). Homers were still a problem (1.6 per nine). Overall, Glasnow's Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) -- a measure of a pitcher's skill based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed -- was 4.38. Not great, but considering that Glasnow was getting throttled in low-leverage relief situations in Pittsburgh just months earlier, being an average-ish starting pitcher marked serious progress.
This year? Glasnow has been nearly unhittable. He's striking out 10.2 hitters per nine frames, while surrendering just 0.6 homers per nine. The most shocking statistic of all: The guy who used to elicit comparisons to a right-handed Nuke LaLoosh has walked just 1.7 batters per nine. With 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, which measures a pitcher's value compared to a waiver wire-type player), Glasnow ranks third among all MLB pitchers. His FIP (2.20) is the best. Let's break down some of the biggest differences between Pittsburgh Glasnow and Tampa Bay Glasnow.
• He's attacking batters with high heat. The last time we saw Glasnow as a starter for the Pirates, in 2017, he relied on a 94 mph sinker (33.1 percent of his total pitches) nearly as much as his 95 mph four-seam fastball (33.8 percent). The four-seamer wasn't all that good (opponents slugged .471 against it), but his two-seamer turned batters into Barry Bonds in his prime (.698 slugging percentage against).
In Tampa, Glasnow has discarded the sinker entirely in favor of a four-seam fastball (thrown 64 percent) that now averages 96.6 mph -- sixth-highest among all starters who have thrown the pitch at least 300 times this season. But here's the crazy part: Glasnow's four-seamer actually looks even faster to opponents. Glasnow has the highest average perceived four-seam fastball velocity (99.3 mph) among all MLB pitchers. That includes relievers. Perceived velocity is an MLB Statcast metric that measures how fast a pitch appears to batters once you account for a pitcher's release point and his extension toward home plate. Glasnow is using every bit of his 6-foot-8 frame to drive toward home plate, giving hitters precious little time to adjust.
Glasnow's four-seamer doesn't just have extra giddy-up -- he has also become much more adept at controlling the pitch. Glasnow has thrown 62 percent of his four-seamers within the strike zone in 2019, compared to about 51 percent from 2016-18. He's daring people to hit the pitch. And, spoiler alert, they can't. Glasnow is limiting opponents to a .337 slugging percentage against his four-seamer, which is eighth-best among starters.
• He has rediscovered his power curveball. Glasnow is throwing his curve 31 percent of the time in 2019, compared to around 20 percent of the time in Pittsburgh. Although Glasnow's curve sat around 80 mph with the Pirates, it's sitting 83-84 mph with the Rays, with more spin. His average curveball spin rate with the Pirates sat around 2,500 revolutions per minute. This year, Glasnow's curveball spin rate is up to nearly 2,900 rpm -- the sixth-highest among qualifying MLB pitchers. Why does that matter? High-spin curveballs tend to be more effective. That has certainly been the case for Glasnow, who boasts a .197 opponent slugging percentage against the pitch (fifth-lowest among starting pitchers) and 36 strikeouts (second-highest, behind Charlie Morton).
Glasnow's curveball has also played a big role in curbing his tendency to cough up home runs. He is generating ground balls on 72 percent of curveballs put in play, compared to slightly better than 50 percent with Pittsburgh. He has yet to serve up a homer on a breaking ball in 2019.
Granted, we need to see Glasnow perform at a high level for more than a couple of months before declaring him an ace. Maybe his forearm injury is a precursor to further health problems. But man, does this look like a fluke? He has been rebuilt from the ground up with the Rays, ditching a terrible sinker in favor of high fastballs and streamlining his delivery to make the most of his NBA-sized frame. His breaking stuff is absolutely wicked, too. Glasnow is a totally different pitcher than the guy who routinely got clobbered with the Pirates. And, with Morton and Gerrit Cole also reaching new heights in other cities thanks to a similar transformation (ditching two-seamers/sinkers in favor of high four-seamers and power breaking balls), it's enough to make you wonder: Could the Pirates have unlocked ace-level production from these guys if they just let them be themselves?
MORE PIRATES
• A black hole at third: With Jung Ho Kang looking every bit like a guy who missed two MLB seasons and Colin Moran still mostly collecting singles and errors, the Pirates have received precious little production from third base in 2019. As a whole, Pirates third basemen have been worth -0.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season. WAR is a measure of a player's overall hitting, fielding, and base running ability compared to that of the kind of player who hits the waiver wire or gets the dreaded Quad-A label. No other team has been worse at the hot corner. Top prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes hasn't exactly taken Triple-A Indianapolis by storm (.260 average/.349 on-base percentage/.394 slugging percentage), but at least he provides hope that better days are ahead at the position.
• A Nightmare for the ages: Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez just keeps getting nastier. The lefty with triple-digit heat is punching out a career-best 14.5 batters per nine innings, ranking sixth among qualified MLB relievers. His ERA+ is a league-best 857. ERA+ adjusts a pitcher's ERA for park factors and the league-wide run-scoring environment. The average is 100, and anything north of 100 means the pitcher is better than most. Dating back to the beginning of the 2017 season, Vazquez has the best ERA+ (206) among any reliever with 150+ innings pitched. So, his adjusted ERA over the past three seasons is 106 percent better than average. You could make the case that no Pirates reliever has ever been this dominant. Vazquez's career 189 ERA+ as a Pirate is the second-best in franchise history for a reliever with 150+ innings pitched in black in gold, trailing only the man for whom he was traded (Mark Melancon, 210) and besting the likes of Mike Gonzalez (184), Joel Hanrahan (151), Tony Watson (143) and Kent Tekulve (139). Nightmare, indeed.
STEELERS
• Sutton needs to step up: Artie Burns isn't the only Steelers cornerback who should be a little nervous about his long-term job security. With Pittsburgh signing Steven Nelson in free agency and drafting Michigan State's Justin Layne in the third round of the 2019 draft, Cameron Sutton might be sweating. Sutton, a third-round pick out of Tennessee in the 2017 draft, is coming off a mediocre campaign. According to the Player Profiler website, Sutton allowed receivers to catch 75 percent of balls thrown in his coverage area in 2018, at an average of 17.7 yards per catch. Those are Jerry Rice in his prime-type of numbers. Opposing quarterbacks had a 147.9 passer rating when targeting Sutton. For comparison's sake, Drew Brees led the NFL in passer rating at 115.7. Sutton has something to prove at St. Vincent this summer.
• Grading the MAC: The Steelers continued their longstanding habit of acquiring talent from the Mid-American Conference, selecting three MAC players in the 2019 draft: Toledo wide receiver Diontae Johnson (third-round pick), Northern Illinois linebacker Sutton Smith (sixth round) and Akron linebacker Ulysees Gilbert III (sixth round). The selection of stars from a non-Power 5 conference always raises questions about the quality of competition. Are they legitimate NFL contributors, or did they beat up on lesser college teams? If you believe in College Football Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), these MAC prospects do have something to prove. SRS takes into account the average point differential and strength of schedule for each college team. When you aggregate those at the conference level, you get a clearer picture of each conference's competition level. The MAC ranked 11th out of 12 conferences in SRS last season (-6.0), beating out only Conference USA (-7.2). For comparison's sake, the SEC blew everyone else out of the water with a +10.7 SRS. Maybe that means Alabama's Isaiah Buggs can puff out his chest when he's around his fellow Steelers sixth-round picks.
• Grading Smith: Pro Football Focus metrics are divisive subject for some fans, but their evaluators love Smith. The MAC defense player of the year, who racked up 29 sacks over the past two seasons, ranked in PFF's top 10 among edge defenders in run defense (first), pressures (second, with 65 total) and pass rushing (seventh). Smith was rated as the second-most productive edge defender among draft prospects, trailing only Kentucky's Josh Allen (who went seventh overall to the Jaguars). The undersized end-turned-linebacker will have to earn a roster spot this summer and prove he was more than a creation of the MAC, but no one can doubt his college productivity.
PENGUINS
• Dumoulin breaks out: Lost amid all the hand-wringing over Kris Letang's postseason turnovers and the boatload of money that the Penguins owe so-so defensemen was the superb 2018-19 season turned in by 27-year-old Brian Dumoulin. He raised his points per game total for the fifth consecutive season (to 0.3) while becoming even more of a shutdown defender. With Dumoulin on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins allowed 24.5 scoring chances per 60 minutes (down from 25.9 in 2017-18), 11 high-danger chances per 60 (11.3 in '17-'18) and 2.3 goals against (three the previous year). With a better blend of offensive production and defensive responsibility, Dumoulin tilted the ice in his team's favor like few other defensemen in the league. The Penguins generated +4.1 percent more of the game's overall shots when Dumoulin skated at even-strength, which bests his career average (+1.5 percent) and ranked 14th among blue liners who played in at least 60 games in 2018-19.
• Give and take (but mostly give): The Penguins played a less structured, sloppier brand of hockey this past season, which led to the team increasing its giveaway total from 734 in 2017-18 to 825 in 2018-19, according to NHL.com. Two of the biggest culprits are star players coming off pedestrian (by their standards) years: Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. Malkin committed 4.1 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time during even-strength situations -- a dramatic increase from his rate in 2017-18 (3.1) and 2016-17 (2.6). Kessel, meanwhile, had 2.9 giveaways per 60 minutes of even-strength play -- up from 2.3 in 2017-18 and 2.0 in 2016-17. Malkin had the seventh-highest giveaway rate among all NHL players who skated 800+ minutes during five-on-five play, while Kessel had the 47-highest rate. When GM Jim Rutherford pointedly says that players need to buy in to coach Mike Sullivan's system, he's looking at these two.
• Teddy's ready: Teddy Blueger toiled in the AHL for a large portion of the 2018-19 season, racking up 39 points in 45 games for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, before ascending to Pittsburgh. He made a good impression in the NHL -- one that should earn him a regular NHL paycheck in 2019-20 as a bottom-line center or winger. The Penguins generated 62.5 percent of total goals scored when Blueger skated during even-strength situations, the second-highest rate on the team among players with 250+ minutes of five-on-five ice time in 2018-19 (Sidney Crosby was first, at 65.6 percent). Pittsburgh allowed 22.9 scoring chances against per 60 minutes of even-strength play with Blueger skating, the second-lowest mark among forwards (Dominik Simon was first, at 19.8). With Matt Cullen likely moving on, Blueger is deserving of more ice time.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Honus would be proud: While you wouldn't know it by watching the local club, the shortstop position is in the midst of an offensive renaissance across MLB. Overall, MLB shortstops have a park- and league-adjusted batting line that is six percent above the overall league average in 2019. In other words, shortstops are batting six percent better than the average MLB hitter. According to Fangraphs, that is the highest adjusted offensive line for shortstops in MLB history. The only other time that shortstops have outhit the league average was back in Honus Wagner's heyday in 1904 (1 percent above the MLB average). In 2019, the shortstop wrecking crew is being led by Jorge Polanco (63 percent above average), Paul DeJong (+61 percent), Javier Baez (+56 percent), Carlos Correa (+51 percent), Tim Anderson (+43 percent) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+43 percent). In case you're wondering, the Pirates' shortstops have been 37 percent below average at the plate (third-worst among MLB teams).
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