Pirates management has been roasted for two high-profile trades that have, to this point, turned sour (shipping Gerrit Cole to the Astros, and acquiring Chris Archer from the Rays). It's only fair, then, to give them some praise for the Andrew McCutchen deal. In exchange for one year of McCutchen's services, the Pirates acquired six years of team control over both reliever Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds.
Crick has emerged as a high-leverage reliever in an otherwise flammable Pirates bullpen. And Reynolds? A switch-hitting 24-year-old drafted in the second round by the Giants in 2016, Reynolds has emerged as a stealth NL Rookie of the Year candidate despite having practically zero experience at the Triple-A level. He's not just raking, either. Reynolds is flashing the kind of well-rounded skill-set that could make him a quality contributor even if his bat cools off a bit. How is Reynolds doing this, and what might the future hold? Let's break it down.
As a prospect, Reynolds was known as more of a contact-oriented hitter who controlled the strike zone well but lacked more than average power. He batted a cumulative .312 with a .374 on-base percentage and a .472 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, including .302/.381/.438 at Double-A Altoona in 2018. His proponents saw a guy capable of playing every day, given his solid defensive reputation. Skeptics saw a classic "tweener" -- a player who might be stretched in center field, and didn't have the kind of impact bat needed to play a corner outfield spot.
In 2019, Reynolds has crushed the ball from the jump. He slashed .367/.446/.735 in 57 plate appearances to start the year at Triple-A Indianapolis, and hasn't stopped raking after getting pushed to the majors to cover for a rash of injuries in the outfield. Reynolds boasts a .350/.409/.575 line as a Pirate. His on-base plus slugging percentage, once adjusted for park factors and the league run-scoring environment, is a whopping 60 percent better than the MLB average. Reynolds has the 12th-best adjusted OPS among all big league hitters with at least 130 plate appearances this season, and the best mark among all rookies meeting the same criteria (the Mets' Pete Alonso is second, at 51 percent above average). Only two Pirates rookies in franchise history have posted a better adjusted OPS while getting 130+ plate appearances, according to Baseball Reference: Bill Salkeld (1945) and Fred Nicholson (1920), both 63 percent above the league average.
Reynolds has demonstrated decent plate discipline in the majors, drawing walks in 9.1 percent of his plate appearances (8.8 percent MLB average this season) and striking out 21.2 percent (22.9 percent average). Given his minor league track record, that's not terribly surprising. What is surprising is Reynolds' power-hitting prowess. His Isolated Power -- a measure of extra-base thump found by subtracting slugging percentage from batting average -- is .225 (.177 MLB average). After hitting only seven home runs in Double-A last year, Reynolds has already clubbed five homers in Pittsburgh. He appears to be fully healed from a broken hamate bone in his wrist that may have curtailed his power in 2018, and he's using every bit of his 6-foot-3, 205 pound frame. Reynolds has the second-best percentage of balls put in play at 95+mph among Pirates batters, posting a rate that nearly matches that of MVP candidate Josh Bell:
For comparison's sake, the MLB average for hard-hit rate is about 38 percent. Reynolds' hard-hit rate ranks in the top 30 among all batters with 130+ plate appearances. He's doing most of his damage off fastballs, batting .403 and slugging .708 according to MLB Statcast. All five of Reynolds' homers have come against the heat.
In addition to scorching pitches, Reynolds has performed well in the field and on the bases. He has saved five runs compared to an average left fielder according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric, which measures a fielder's value based on factors that include range, arm and errors. That's tied with McCutchen for second-best among MLB left fielders.
Reynolds has already been worth 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a measure of a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to that of a waiver wire-caliber contributor). That WAR total is tied with the Dodgers' Alex Verdugo for second among NL position player rookies, and is close to Alonso's 1.9 despite Reynolds not making his MLB debut until April 20. On the pitching side, the Braves' Mike Soroka (1.7 WAR) and Padres' Chris Paddack (1.1) are other strong early NL ROY contenders.
Before you pencil in Reynolds as the Pirates' first Rookie of the Year since Jason Bay in 2004, there are some caveats. Even when you consider how hard he's hitting pitches, there's no question that Reynolds has benefited from some great luck. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .425, which is 130 points above the MLB average in 2019 and is the second-highest clip among MLB hitters with 130+ plate appearances (the Rockies' David Dahl has a .454 BABIP). He might be able to post an above-average BABIP if he continues making such quality contact, but he's not going to keep getting hits on balls in play like Ty Cobb. Reynolds has also been highly aggressive at the plate, chasing about 36 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the MLB average is about 31 percent). Pitchers could start to exploit Reynolds if he continues to expand the zone. Defensively, we need a larger sample size before we can say for sure that Reynolds is a major asset in the outfield.
Nobody should expect Reynolds to keep batting .350, but he has exceeded all expectations in 2019 while solidifying a long-term lineup spot. With Crick pitching high-leverage innings and Reynolds looking like a capable everyday outfielder -- if not more -- at least one recent high-profile trade looks like it will have a happy ending.
MORE PIRATES
• Triple-A Time for Tucker? The Pirates view Cole Tucker as the club's long-term answer at shortstop, and understandably so. The 24th overall pick in the 2014 draft is a switch hitter with speed, a slick glove and burgeoning power in his lanky 6-foot-3 frame. But it might be time for this 22-year-old, pressed into major league duty due to injuries at the position, to get more ABs at Triple-A. Tucker has struck out six times as often (28.3 percent of his plate appearances) as he has walked (4.7 percent), and his park and league-adjusted On Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS+) is 70 percent worse than the overall MLB average. Tucker's adjusted OPS is among the ten worst in Pirates history among rookies who received at least 100 plate appearances in a season. He's actually performing well versus breaking pitches (a .407 slugging percentage off curveballs and sliders, per MLB Statcast), but he's getting overwhelmed by fastballs (.294 slugging percentage) and offspeed stuff (.111 slugging percentage). Tucker is promising, but he needs more than 66 plate appearances at Indianapolis before he's ready for prime time.
• Blowouts galore: Considering that the 2019 Pirates have been outscored by 63 runs and possess the third-worst run differential in the National League, the club is incredibly fortunate to have a record that's hovering around .500. Pittsburgh's Pythagorean Record -- its expected win-loss total based on runs scored and allowed -- is a paltry 21-33. No team has outperformed its expected win-loss record more in 2019 (+6 games). The Pirates' run differential is so poor in part because when the team loses, it loses big. The Pirates are 4-14 this season in blowouts (games decided by at least five runs), with 62 runs scored and 149 allowed in those contests. And many of those blowouts have come against the game's best teams. Pittsburgh is 16-8 against sub-.500 teams this year, but just 11-19 versus clubs with winning records. With a negative run differential and a poor track record against winning teams, the Pirates have the worst odds of making the playoffs among NL Central competitors, according to Fangraphs (just 7 percent).
PENGUINS
• Scouting success: With the NHL draft coming up in June, most Penguins fans are focused on the fact that GM Jim Rutherford actually held on to his first-round selection this year. And rightly so. But let's not forget about the franchise's success in developing low-round picks or undrafted players. Here's the list of fairly recent players who were selected by the Penguins in the third round or later, or signed as undrafted free agents, who have racked up at least 10 career Point Shares (PS). Point Shares is a Hockey Reference stat that measures the estimated point value of a player's offensive and defensive contributions. Conor Sheary (11.5 career PS) was acquired as an undrafted free agent in 2015. Bryan Rust (11.4 PS) was a third-rounder in 2010, and breakout star Jake Guentzel (18.2 career PS) was selected in the same round in 2013. Matt Murray (30.5 career PS) was a third-rounder in 2012, too. Without these late-round or undrafted guys, the Penguins likely wouldn't have a fistful of championship rings.
• Riikola, year two: Last year, Finnish defenseman Juuso Riikola generated buzz by showing speed, puck-handling skill and surprising physicality during training camp and the preseason. The Penguins recently re-signed the 25-year-old restricted free agent, but he enters 2019-20 seemingly perceived as more of a depth piece than a long-term, top-six option. Among the 10 Penguins blue liners who skated at least 200 minutes during five-on-five play last season, Riikola ranked last in percentage of total shots generated when he was on the ice (45.2), ninth in shots allowed per 60 minutes (36.1) and seventh in scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes (26.2). There's still some upside here, but it will be hard for Riikola to develop his game from the press box or in the AHL.
STEELERS
• Up the middle improvement: In a post-Antonio Brown landscape, look for the Steelers to seek greater balance offensively. Last year, the team had the NFL's second-lowest rate of rushing plays (32.6 percent, compared to 40.3 percent in 2017) and the eighth-worst yards per carry total (4.2). The Steelers really need to improve when it comes to rushing the ball up the middle. Football Outsiders tracks a stat called Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), which measures a team's success in running the ball while adjusting for variables like down, distance, score and the quality of the opposing defense. Pittsburgh was excellent when running outside, ranking first in ALY on rushing attempts around the right end of the offensive line and 11th around the left end. But on rushing attempts behind the guards and the center, they ranked just 24th. Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro, and some combination of Ramon Foster and B.J. Finney will look to open up more midfield holes for James Conner, Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell in 2019.
• Starting from behind: Another improvement area for the Steelers? Giving their offense a shorter field to work with. On average last year, Pittsburgh began its offensive drives on its own 26.2. That ranked 31st in the NFL, surpassing only the 49ers (25.4). In 2017, the Steelers ranked 12th in average starting position (28.8). They'll surely be looking for more out of the kick return game, as the Steelers placed 31st among teams with an average return of 19.3 yards.
• A Bud breakout? Few players generate more divergent opinions than Bud Dupree. His detractors point out that the 22nd overall pick in the 2015 draft has compiled just 20 sacks in 54 career NFL games. That's middling production for a purported pass-rushing specialist. Those who still believe in Dupree see a guy who has left some sacks on the table and could start to translate near-misses into double-digit QB take down totals. For what it's worth, Dupree ranked just 82nd among all NFL edge defenders in Pro Football Focus' pass rushing grade in 2018. With a 61.1 grade on Pro Football Focus' 0-100 scale, Dupree ranked well behind fellow starting outside 'backer T.J. Watt (78.7) and just ahead of backup Anthony Chickillo (56.1). At some point, potential must become production.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• No country for old ballplayers: In case you're wondering why teams are passing on signing or extending veteran MLB players, consider this: Hitters in their twenties have an adjusted OPS that is 2 percent better than the overall big league average this season, according to Baseball Reference. Hitters in their thirties, by contrast, have an adjusted OPS that is 5 percent below the MLB average. Position players in their thirties have accounted for 26.5 percent of total plate appearances in 2019, down from 33.2 percent a decade ago. Older position players are getting fewer opportunities, and doing less with those opportunities.
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