The 2019 Pirates were supposed to be driven by high-quality starting pitching and high-leverage relief aces. Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and Chris Archer fronted a rotation that some considered to be the class of the National League, certainly the Central Division. Felipe Vazquez and Keone Kela were there to slam the door shut in the late frames. If the offense could just manage to scrape together three or four runs, the thinking went, the Pirates would be quasi-contenders.
Instead, the pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries and the replacements have performed about as well as Bugs Bunny did against the Gas House Gorillas. Taillon and Williams are on the IL, with Williams nearing a return and the outlook seemingly more bleak for Taillon. Archer has underachieved, and Joe Musgrove has been hittable since a superb April. Jordan Lyles, the early-season ace, started to fade recently and was just placed on the IL with a hamstring problem. Vazquez has held up his end of the bargain in the bullpen (as have Kyle Crick and Francisco Liriano), but Kela is still sidelined with a shoulder ailment. Richard Rodriguez has morphed back into a pumpkin. And the rest of the bullpen? Full of rookies and DuRapaus and Hartliebs who should be in Triple-A.
You know that the pitching has been bad. But just how bad? Let's take a look at where the 2019 Pirates rank in the annals of the franchise's all-time worst pitching staffs.
Once you adjust for park factors and the league-wide offensive environment, Pirates starters and relievers have allowed 20 percent more earned runs than the MLB average in 2019. That 120 adjusted ERA (on a scale where 100 is league average) is the worst in the NL in 2019, third-worst in the majors (behind the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles), and is tied for the second-worst mark in the history of the franchise. To find a time when the Pirates' staff got crushed this badly, you have to go back to two seasons at the depths of fans' despair -- when the team was busy extending the longest consecutive losing season streak in major North American pro sports history. Before that, you have to go back to the mid-1950s:
There's plenty of blame to spread around, as the starting rotation has a 114 adjusted ERA (tied for second-worst in the NL, and seventh-worst in the majors) and the bullpen has a 128 adjusted ERA (second-worst in the NL and MLB, ranking ahead of only the historically inept Washington Nationals). Among pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, only Vazquez (55 adjusted ERA), Liriano (56), Crick (63), Williams (79), Lyles (87) and Taillon (98) have a better than average adjusted ERA.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the recently DFA'd Nick Kingham (235 adjusted ERA), Geoff Hartlieb (232), Michael Feliz (184), Rookie Davis (161), Rodriguez (130) and Archer (124) have been drubbed the worst. Kingham's adjusted ERA is the 12th-worst single-season mark for a Pirates pitcher to throw 20-plus innings. The guys in front of him (or is it behind?) mostly pitched in the early 20th century. The others are John Van Benschoten and Steve Blass, when he had devolved from a World Series winner to a pitcher who couldn't find the strike zone.
Things have to get better, right? Presumably, whatever Walking Dead-style epidemic that is putting nearly every pitcher on the IL will subside. Maybe you could make the case that the pitching staff has been a little unlucky, too, as their collective ERA (5.04) is a half-run higher than their fielding-independent ERA (4.49), which is calculated based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Mitch Keller can't be confined to Tripe-A forever.
But so far, the 2019 Pirates staff has been one of the worst and most injury-prone that we have ever witnessed. We're left watching a team that often doesn't know who will start in a few days, and there isn't enough Dubble Bubble in the world to calm manager Clint Hurdle's nerves when he has to turn to his middle relief corps. If this team stays anywhere near .500 with the pitching staff performing like this, it will be a miracle.
MORE PIRATES
• Moran's last stand: With top-50 prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes closing in on the majors, Josh Bell well-established at first base, and the outfield corners probably not being a realistic defensive destination, Colin Moran has limited time to show that he's an everyday player -- for the Pirates or eventually another franchise. He doesn't add much defensively or on the bases, so he has to rake to have real value. Thankfully, he has started to do just that. With his torrid start to June, Moran has raised his slugging percentage 70 points compared to 2018 (.477 this year, .407 last year) and he looks poised to eclipse his full-season home run total from 2018 by the All-Star break (nine so far, 11 in 2018). He is pulling the ball much more often this season (46 percent of balls put in play, compared to 37 percent in '18), and he's smoking more pitches down the line on fastballs. In 2018, Moran slugged .432 against the heater with eight home runs. This year, he's slugging .580 with six homers already.
• Filthy Frankie returns: After a turbulent 2018 season as a starting pitcher with the Detroit Tigers, Francisco Liriano returned to Pittsburgh on a minor-league deal in hopes of reviving his career in the bullpen. So far, so good: The 35-year-old lefty has struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings pitched while posting a 2.35 ERA. In shorter stints, Liriano has regained velocity on his slider (84 mph as a starter in 2018, 86 mph in 2019) and has reduced his opponent slugging percentage against the pitch from .350 in Detroit to .067 with the Pirates. Overall, he's doing a great job of missing bats and inducing weak contact. Hitters are putting the ball in play at an average of 84.9 mph, according to MLB Statcast. That's nearly three mph below the 87.4 big league average, and ranks in the top seven percent among all MLB pitchers.
STEELERS
• Samuels' soft hands: With the Le'Veon Bell era officially over and the Steelers poised to spread the ball around more in 2019, Jaylen Samuels could take on a more prominent role. The former N.C. State star, known as more of a pass-catcher in college, displayed his soft hands as a rookie in 2018. Samuels ranked third among all NFL running backs in receiving Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a Football Outsiders metric that measures the per-reception value of a player based on the game situation (down, distance, score) and the quality of the opposing defense. Samuels was 36.4 percent more effective than the average NFL running back on receptions in 2018, trailing only the Chiefs' Kareem Hunt (79.4 percent) and the 49ers' Matt Breida (44.8 percent). The last time Bell took the field, in 2017, he was 2.5 percent above average as a pass-catcher.
• Switzer on the bubble? Ryan Switzer's roster spot could be in peril, considering that rookie Diontae Johnson is now in the fold as a receiver and return man Eli Rogers is back from a knee injury. Switzer didn't stand out on special teams in 2018, averaging 8.4 yards on punt returns (8.5 NFL average) and 20.2 yards on kickoffs (22.9 average). And, although Ben Roethlisberger targeted him a surprising amount, Switzer wasn't all that effective as a receiver. He showed reliable hands, hauling in 81.8 percent of passes thrown his way, but Switzer averaged only 7 yards per reception. Among receivers who were targeted at least 40 times last season, Switzer had the lowest yards per reception rate in the game. Granted, he was often targeted close to the line of scrimmage, but Switzer didn't make anyone miss and break off big plays. This former Cowboy and Raider could be pushed off the roster if he doesn't elevate his game.
• Big Ben milestones: As Ben Roethlisberger enters his 16th year in the NFL, he's on the verge of climbing even higher on some of the game's all-time passing-record lists. With 56,194 career passing yards, Roethlisberger is potentially one epic season away from surpassing Dan Marino (61,361) for fifth all-time. He could also crack the top five in game-winning drives (Ben has 42, Brett Favre had 43). Roethlisberger is tied with John Elway for sixth all-time in comeback wins (31), with Marino (33) next up on the list. On a less sanguine note, he is closing in on the all-time sacked record. Roethlisberger has been taken down 501 times during his career, more than anyone else aside from Elway (516) and Favre (525).
PENGUINS
• ZAR on D: Zach Aston-Reese was a point-per-game player and a Hobey Baker finalist at Northeastern, but the 24-year-old winger has been cast mainly into a role in Pittsburgh that emphasizes defensive responsibility and physical play. And, so far, it has been a great fit. With Aston-Reese on the ice during five-on-five play last season, the Penguins allowed 30.2 shots per 60 minutes (fourth-lowest on the team among wingers), 23.7 scoring chances (third-lowest) and 1.7 goals (second-lowest). Add that quality defensive work to Aston-Reese's 0.4 point per game pace in 2018-19, and you have a young, quality, low-cost winger. That's no small thing, given the Penguins' limited financial wiggle room.
• Lucky or good? By at least one measure, the 2018-19 Penguins were fortunate to reach the 100-point mark during the regular season. The Hockey-Reference.com website tracks stats called expected goals for and allowed. Essentially, they adjust a team's goal total for the quality and location of shots taken and allowed, as well as the game situation, during five-on-five play. According to those stats, the Penguins actually scored fewer goals than anticipated (197 expected goals for, 182 actual). But they also gave up way fewer than expected (179 expected goals against, 150 actual). The Penguins outperformed their expected goal differential during even-strength play by +14, which was the 10th-highest positive differential in the NHL. These stats don't know that Sidney Crosby was the one taking impossible-angle shots, or that Matt Murray was channeling Dominik Hasek down the stretch last season, but it's an interesting way to look at which teams are overachieving or under-achieving.
• Phil and penalties: From prolonged goal-scoring droughts to persistent trade rumors, Phil Kessel has had a weird year for a guy who still managed to rack up a point per game in 2018-19. Here's one more weird Kessel nugget: Just about no one headed to the penalty box for an offense against Phil. Kessel drew just 0.16 penalties per 60 minutes of five-on-five play this past season, which was by far the lowest rate among Penguins forwards (the since-departed Derick Brassard had the second-lowest mark, at 0.35). During his previous three seasons with the Penguins, Kessel drew between 0.37 and 0.49 penalties per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. Missed calls? A sign that Phil wasn't as explosive? Dumb luck? We'll find out in 2019-20 -- wherever Kessel ends up playing.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Sea of empty seats: Given the massive amount of revenue that MLB teams rake in from regional sports networks and other digital media rights, you could argue that filling the ballpark with paying fans has never been less important. That said, the decline in attendance across the game is still striking. The average attendance per game across MLB is 26,861 in 2019, down by nearly seven percent compared to last year's total (28,659). Over the last three years, MLB attendance has dipped by 11 percent. The Pirates have managed to at least modestly stop their years-long decline in attendance, averaging 17,404 per game in 2019 (up 7 percent from 16,293 in 2018).
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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