With the 2019 NHL Draft in the rear-view, we take a dive into some stats and analytics affecting the upcoming Penguins season:
• Kahun in context: Dominik Kahun had a fairly impressive rookie season for the Blackhawks, progressing from an undrafted player from a German professional league to racking up 37 points s a frequent linemate of Jonathan Toews. Kahun's performance is even more impressive when you consider how badly the Blackhawks -- who finished the 2018-19 season with 84 points and a -24 goal differential -- struggled. When Kahun was on the ice during five-on-five play, Chicago scored 10.6 percent more goals, generated 2.4 percent more scoring chances, and enjoyed 2.2 percent more high-danger scoring chances compared to when he was on the bench. Don't be surprised if this speedy, undersized 24-year-old flirts with 40-50 points in 2019-20.
• Appreciating Olli: Olli Maatta's tenure with the Penguins didn't end on an uplifting note, with the two-time Stanley Cup champ and 2012 first-round pick having his lack of speed exposed against the Islanders in the playoffs and then spending the rest of the series in the press box. Although Maatta's play never reached the heights that some expected, it's worth remembering the brilliance of his early work with the Penguins. Maatta was a Calder Memorial Trophy contender back in 2013-14, compiling 29 points as a 19-year-old. He tied Hampus Lindholm that year for second among all NHL rookies in Point Shares, a Hockey Reference stat that estimates the number of points in the standings that a player contributes based on his offensive and defensive play. Maatta had +6.6 Point Shares back in '13-14, which ranked behind only Nathan MacKinnon (+7.7) among rookies. Maatta's Point Share total also tied Buffalo's Rasmus Dahlin for the 17th-best single-season mark ever posted by a teenage NHL defenseman. Unfortunately, that is still Maata's high water mark for Point Shares in a season. No one is weeping for a 24-year-old with two rings and a lucrative long-term deal, but it's fair to wonder what kind of player Maataa could be today if he didn't endure so many injuries and ailments.
• Expectations for Poulin: GM Jim Rutherford held onto the team's 2019 first-round pick, selecting power forward Samuel Poulin with the 21st overall selection. Poulin, by his own admission, may take a couple of years to be NHL-ready as he works to refine his speed and skating ability. But the 18-year-old son of longtime NHL player Patrick Poulin instantly becomes one of the best and most watched prospects for a team that's running short on future NHL talent. So, what's a reasonable expectation level for a player like Poulin? Here's what the average NHL career of a player selected 21st overall during the post-expansion era (1967-present), according to Hockey Reference (excluding players who didn't sign with their teams, and the past few first-rounders who either haven't debuted or haven't played much): 381 games played, and 164 points. The most productive 21st overall picks include Dennis Maruk (878 career points), Saku Koivu (832), Bryan Smolinski (651), Pat Flatley (510) and Marco Sturm (487). But essentially, the average career trajectory is something like Riley Sheahan (who himself was selected 21st overall in the 2010 draft). This isn't to throw cold water on Poulin, but rather a recognition that it's hard to find a superstar in the late first round.
