For a player who wasn't even supposed to be here, and who barely took the field at the Triple-A level, Bryan Reynolds has quickly turned into an indispensable part of the Pirates' current and long-term plans.
A 24-year-old switch-hitter acquired from the Giants as part of the Andrew McCutchen deal, Reynolds strolls up to the plate to Johnny Cash and then proceeds to cut 'em down. Reynolds' adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS+) is 158, which ranks behind only the Mets' Pete Alonso (166 OPS+) among 2019 rookies. That's also the best OPS+ since World War II for a Pirates rookie with 200+ plate appearances in a season. Few living Pittsburghers have ever seen a first-year hitter dominate the majors this quickly, this authoritatively.
What's behind Reynolds' sudden and unexpected assault on MLB pitchers?
Here are a few key reasons why he's suddenly in contention to join Jason Bay (2004) as a Pirates Rookie of the Year award winner ...
He's opportunistic. Reynolds may be a little more aggressive at the plate than you would like, with a chase rate on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (33 percent, per Fangraphs) above the MLB average (31 percent). But he won't be confused with, say, Starling Marte in that regard. And on pitches thrown within the zone, Reynolds is both aggressive and smart. He's swinging at 73.7 percent of pitches thrown within the strike zone, well above the 68 percent big league average. On pitches that MLB Statcast classifies as "meatballs" -- pitches thrown to the horizontal and vertical middle of the plate -- Reynolds has an 86.3 percent swing rate. That's well north of the 75 percent MLB average. The bottom line: When Reynolds gets an extremely hittable pitch, he's taking a huge cut.
That aggressive, but intelligent approach is paying huge dividends on the first pitch of at-bats. Reynolds swings at more first-pitch offerings than most (32.7 percent, 28.1 percent MLB average), and he's annihilating those first pitches. He's batting .519 when he swings at the first pitch of an at-bat, with a .667 slugging percentage. For comparison's sake, the average MLB player is batting .348 when they swing at the first pitch, with a .614 slugging percentage.
He's crushing all pitch types. It's early, but Reynolds hasn't been exposed by velocity, breaking balls or offspeed stuff. Whatever opponents throw, he's raking. Fangraphs tracks a hitter's performance by pitch type compared to an average MLB player. Reynold has been an absolute terror versus fastballs, curveballs and changeups, and comfortably above average versus sliders. Check out where he ranks among MLB hitters per 100 of each pitch type seen:
He's taking care of business from both sides of the plate. Reynolds truly exploits his platoon advantage, posting a .979 OPS versus right-handed pitchers and a .990 OPS against lefties. Against righties, 52.9 percent of pitches that Reynolds has put in play have been hard hit (meaning 95 mph or faster). Against lefties, his hard hit rate is 45.2 percent. He's not a switch hitter in name only.
He elevates his game in the late innings. During the first three innings, Reynolds has an .828 OPS. That figure increases to .970 from the fourth through the sixth innings, and jumps to 1.102 during the seventh inning or later. When managers try to unleash a procession of fire-breathing relievers with nasty breaking pitches, Reynolds doesn't flinch. He has .859 OPS against starting pitchers, and a 1.191 OPS versus relievers.
Reynolds has been unquestionably awesome so far. But will the baseball gods eventually cut 'em down? He has benefited from an unsustainably high .443 batting average on balls in play. Even though he's making really hard contact, Reynolds' BABIP is going to fall significantly. No hitter who has ever walked the earth has gotten hits on balls put in play that frequently. The projection systems on Fangraphs suggest he'll be an average to slightly above average hitter during the rest of the 2019 season. I wouldn't expect Reynolds to keep up this Ty Cobb-caliber performance, but I'd take the over on those projections.
What do you think the future holds for Reynolds? Sound off in the comment section below!
MORE PIRATES
• Rookie pitchers rocked: In 2019, Pirates rookie pitchers are getting obliterated. Collectively, the club's first-year hurlers have a ghastly 7.79 ERA. Once you adjust for park factors and the overall league-wide scoring environment, Pirates rookies have an ERA that is 82 percent worse than the MLB average this season. That's not only the worst among all teams this year (Mets rookie pitchers are the closest, at 64 percent worse than average), it's also one of the most dismal marks in the 138-year history of the Alleghenys/Pirates franchise. The only Pirates rookie pitching staffs to get knocked around as badly or worse are the 1902 team (82 percent worse than average) and the 1931 squad (94 percent worse than average). Aside from Mitch Keller, don't expect to see a lot of these guys in future seasons.
• Polanco at the plate: Gregory Polanco returned from labrum surgery sooner than most expected, but hasn't come close to resembling the offensive threat that he was before his ill-fated, awkward slide in the waning days of the 2018 season. And now, he's back on the IL. Polanco's park and league-adjusted On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) was a career-high 28 percent above the MLB average last season. In 2019, Polanco's adjusted OPS is 9 percent below average. Among right fielders with at least 150 plate appearances, only Yasiel Puig (12 percent below average) and Billy McKinney (23 percent below average) have been worse at the plate. So, what's the problem? For one thing, Polanco's plate discipline is off. He has chased about 36 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone this year, which is far higher than his 28 percent rate in 2018. He's whiffing on more of those outside pitches, too (55 percent contact rate when chasing, compared to 62 percent in 2018). With more chases and less contact, Polanco's walk rate has dipped (7.2 percent in '19, 11.4 percent in '18) and his strikeout rate has soared (29.3 percent in '19, 21.9 percent in '28). All concerned are hoping he gets a better grasp of the strike zone as he gets further removed from surgery.
PENGUINS
• Kahun in context: Dominik Kahun had a fairly impressive rookie season for the Blackhawks, progressing from an undrafted player from a German professional league to racking up 37 points as a frequent linemate of Jonathan Toews. Kahun's performance is even more impressive when you consider how badly the Blackhawks -- who finished the 2018-19 season with 84 points and a -24 goal differential -- struggled. When Kahun was on the ice during five-on-five play, Chicago scored 10.6 percent more goals, generated 2.4 percent more scoring chances, and enjoyed 2.2 percent more high-danger scoring chances compared to when he was on the bench. Don't be surprised if this speedy, undersized 24-year-old flirts with 40-50 points in 2019-20.
• Appreciating Olli: Olli Maatta's tenure with the Penguins didn't end on an uplifting note, with the two-time Stanley Cup champ and 2012 first-round pick having his lack of speed exposed against the Islanders in the playoffs and then spending the rest of the series in the press box. Although Maatta's play never reached the heights that some expected, it's worth remembering the brilliance of his early work with the Penguins. Maatta was a Calder Memorial Trophy contender back in 2013-14, compiling 29 points as a 19-year-old. He tied Hampus Lindholm that year for second among all NHL rookies in Point Shares, a Hockey Reference stat that estimates the number of points in the standings that a player contributes based on his offensive and defensive play. Maatta had +6.6 Point Shares back in '13-14, which ranked behind only Nathan MacKinnon (+7.7) among rookies. Maatta's Point Share total also tied Buffalo's Rasmus Dahlin for the 17th-best single-season mark ever posted by a teenage NHL defenseman. Unfortunately, that is still Maata's high water mark for Point Shares in a season. No one is weeping for a 24-year-old with two rings and a lucrative long-term deal, but it's fair to wonder what kind of player Maataa could be today if he didn't endure so many injuries and ailments.
• Expectations for Poulin: GM Jim Rutherford held onto the team's 2019 first-round pick, selecting power forward Samuel Poulin with the 21st overall selection. Poulin, by his own admission, may take a couple of years to be NHL-ready as he works to refine his speed and skating ability. But the 18-year-old son of longtime NHL player Patrick Poulin instantly becomes one of the best and most watched prospects for a team that's running short on future NHL talent. So, what's a reasonable expectation level for a player like Poulin? Here's what the average NHL career of a player selected 21st overall during the post-expansion era (1967-present), according to Hockey Reference (excluding players who didn't sign with their teams, and the past few first-rounders who either haven't debuted or haven't played much): 381 games played, and 164 points. The most productive 21st overall picks include Dennis Maruk (878 career points), Saku Koivu (832), Bryan Smolinski (651), Pat Flatley (510) and Marco Sturm (487). But essentially, the average career trajectory is something like Riley Sheahan (who himself was selected 21st overall in the 2010 draft). This isn't to throw cold water on Poulin, but rather a recognition that it's hard to find a superstar in the late first round.
STEELERS
• Playmakers, post-AB: Antonio Brown may be getting ready for his close-up on Hard Knocks with the Raiders, but the Steelers aren't completely bereft of big-time playmakers. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Pittsburgh has a few of the best receivers when it comes to turning modest gains into splash plays. Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called expected yards after the catch (expected YAC), which gauges how many extra yards that a receiver should gain on a pass based on factors such as the receiver's speed, his separation from defenders, and the pass location. Tight end Vance McDonald gained +2.1 more yards after the catch than expected on his receptions in 2018, which ranked behind only George Kittle (+3.2), D.J. Moore (+3), Josh Gordon (+3) and Evan Engram (+2.9) among all players. Free agent signee Donte Moncrief wasn't far behind, ranking ninth in the NFL in expected YAC (+1.3). JuJu Smith-Schuster (+0.3) had a modest mark overall, but he also turned a Week 1 reception against the Browns that had an expected YAC of 16 yards into a 67-yard touchdown. No one's replacing arguably the most productive receiver of all time over a six-year period, but the Steelers still have some after-the-catch weapons.
• Fading in the fourth: The Steelers missed the playoffs in 2018 in part because they squandered late leads and allowed teams to drive down the field when time was running short. How much worse was the '18 Steelers defense late in games? In 2017, when the team went 13-3, Pittsburgh allowed an average of 4.6 points per game in the fourth quarter (tied for fourth-best among NFL teams). Last year, when the Steelers limped to a 9-6-1 record and missed the playoffs, they allowed 7.7 points per game in the fourth quarter (24th among all teams). The big difference was pass coverage. In 2017, the Steelers allowed a 54.9 completion percentage and a 57.8 quarterback rating in the fourth quarter. Last year, they surrendered a 65 percent completion rate and a 91.5 quarterback rating.
• Nose for the ball: The Steelers defense produced just 15 turnovers last season (tied for 29th in the NFL), but T.J. Watt certainly did his part. Watt forced six fumbles in 2018, which tied Khalil Mack for third among all defenders. Only Dee Ford and T.J.'s brother, J.J. Watt, caused opponents to cough it up more often (seven forced fumbles apiece). Watt's six forced fumbles are the second-most in a season for a Steelers player since Football Reference began tracking that stat back in 1993. Greg Lloyd (1991 and 1995) and James Harrison (2010) also had seasons with six forced fumbles. Harrison holds the single-season record, with seven in both 2007 and 2008.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Downsizing the NHL: From Jack Hughes to Alex Turcotte to Cole Caufield, some of the top prospects in the 2019 NHL draft class are on the small side. In today's NHL, where speed and skill often trump brute force, that's not as much of a problem. Indeed, the NHL has actually been downsizing in recent years. Back in 2008-09, the average NHL forward was 72.9 inches tall and weighed 203 pounds, according to Natural Stat Trick data. In 2018-19, the average forward was 72.6 inches tall and weighed 196 pounds. Same deal on the blue line, too, as NHL defensemen have become somewhat shorter (73.8 inches in '08-09, 73.6 in '18-19) and lighter (209 pounds in '08-09, 202 pounds in '18-19). The lone exception is in the net: goalies have gotten taller (73.5 inches in '08-09, 74.3 in '18-19) and heavier (197 pounds in '08-09, 200 pounds in '18-19).
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