Back in the summer of 2012, Alex Galchenyuk took the stage at Consol Energy Center (now PPG Paints Arena) after the Canadiens selected him third overall in the NHL Draft. Possessing size (6-foot-1, 207 pounds), strong skating ability and a lethal lefty shot, Galchenyuk was considered a future high-end scoring threat at the next level.
Seven years later, Galchenyuk is headed back to Pittsburgh having shown glimpses of that potential, but also having plateaued in his mid-20s. The principal player acquired in the Phil Kessel deal has been traded during two consecutive offseasons (the Canadiens shipped him to the Coyotes in June 2018 for Max Domi), with his offensive production having tailed off after a 30-goal campaign during his age-21 season. A quasi-reclamation project for the Penguins, Galchenyuk will look to get back to his 30-goal form while, interestingly, possibly filling the role that Kessel often held on Evgeni Malkin's wing.
Galchenyuk is coming off a 2018-19 season in which he averaged 0.57 points per game, the second-lowest rate of his seven-year career (he had 0.48 points per game as a 19-year-old in 2013-14). When he was on the ice during five-on-five situations, the Coyotes generated -2.5 percent fewer shots, -2.1 percent fewer scoring chances, and -9.7 percent fewer goals compared to when he was off the ice, according to Natural Stat Trick. That marked the third consecutive season in which Galchenyuk had negative marks in those categories. With Galchenyuk skating, the Canadiens generated -3.3 percent fewer five-on-five shots, -5.1 percent fewer scoring chances, and -7.9 percent fewer goals in 2017-18. In 2016-17, Montreal had -4.1 percent fewer shots, -6.5 percent fewer scoring chances, and -6.4 percent fewer goals with him on the ice.
It wasn't always that way. Earlier in his career, Galchenyuk had a really positive effect on his team's puck possession and scoring totals. With Galchenyuk skating at even strength, the Canadiens boosted even-strength shots by +2.7 percent in 2014-15 and +2.5 percent in 2015-16. He helped to increase scoring chances by +7.8 percent in '14-15 and +2.5 percent in '15-16. Same deal with goals (+4 percent in '14-15 and +7.6 percent in '15-16). That's the kind of player Montreal expected when they took him third overall, then signed him to a three-year, $14.7 million contract extension before the 2017 season.
So what changed?
For one thing, he has made more questionable decisions with the puck. Galchenyuk averaged about 1.5 giveaways per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time during the 2014-16 seasons. Since then, he has averaged about 2.2 giveaways per 60 minutes. His shot selection is an issue, too, as Galchenyuk took about 47 percent of his shots from either the faceoff circles or the area directly behind that in 2018-19. During his higher-scoring days with the Canadiens, he took about 35 percent of his shots from those areas of the ice that yield fewer goals than those taken closer to the net.
His defense, never considered a strong point, has been Kessel-esque. Opponents averaged about 29 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Galchenyuk on the ice during the 2014-16 seasons, and about 33 shots since then. Scoring chances against have increased from about 25 per 60 minutes with Galchenyuk skating to about 29.
With Galchenyuk's game suffering a bit on both sides of the puck, his Point Share total has plateaued. Point Shares is a Hockey Reference stat that measures how much a player's offensive and defensive production counts in the standings. Galchenyuk peaked at seven Point Shares back in 2015-16. Since then, he has posted marks under five per season -- less than the Point Share totals posted by the man he was traded for (Kessel), and less than the guy the Penguins initially tried to acquire for Phil (the Wild's Jason Zucker):
Everyone knows that the Penguins had limited leverage in dealing Kessel. In acquiring Galchenyuk, the Penguins save some cap space (he makes $4.9 million, compared to $6.8 million that Kessel would have been owed), gain contract flexibility (he's a free agent following the 2019-20 season, while Phil is under contract through 2021-22) and have the opportunity to rehab a player with offensive potential who's still in his physical prime. If Galchenyuk can resemble Kessel more with the puck, and less on defense, the Penguins could have a solid winger for Malkin.
MORE PENGUINS
• Appreciating Orpik: Brooks Orpik recently called it a career, concluding a 16-year NHL tenure that included two Stanley Cups (2008-09 with the Penguins, 2017-18 with the Capitals) and a legacy as one of the better blue liners to ever suit up for Pittsburgh. Orpik was your classic stay-at-home defenseman -- he scored all of 11 regular-season goals and had 132 points in 703 games with the Penguins -- but he managed to account for the seventh-most Point Shares in Pittsburgh franchise history at his position. With 28.5 point shares as a Penguin, Orpik trails only Randy Carlyle (35.7), Sergei Gonchar (38.6), Larry Murphy (41.4), Paul Coffey (42.7), Ron Stackhouse (54.3) and Kris Letang (83.1). No one would ever confuse him for a star, but Orpik made a difference during his decade-plus in town.
• Justice for Gonchar: Speaking of Gonchar, he recently missed out on a chance to join the Hockey Hall of Fame. That's an oversight that we hope will be rectified in 2020. Gonchar, who spent five seasons with the Penguins (2005-2010) and currently is an assistant coach for the club, ranks 16th all-time among defensemen in points (811) and 15th in Point Shares (141.9). Every player ahead of him on the career Point Shares list, with the exception of the still-active Zdeno Chara (143.8), is enshrined in Ontario. The average career Point Share total among Hall of Fame defensemen who played all or the bulk of their careers during the modern era (1967 to present) is about 134. He's worthy.
PIRATES
• The Cole Deal: The Pirates faced Gerrit Cole for the first time on June 25, providing a natural point to revisit the trade that sent the first overall pick in the 2011 draft to the Astros for Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Jason Martin and Michael Feliz. So far, Houston has extracted more present-day value from the deal. Since the trade, Cole has been worth 9.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a measure of a player's overall value compared to that of a Quad-A type player. The Pirates, meanwhile, have received a combined 5.4 WAR from Musgrove (4.1 WAR), Moran (1.0), Feliz (0.4) and Martin (-0.1). We won't be able to fully score this one for a while, though. Cole hits free agency after the 2019 season, while all four of the players acquired by the Pirates have years of team control remaining. If Musgrove stays healthy and becomes an above-average starter, or if Moran taps into the power that he displayed at Triple-A but not often enough in the majors, the perception of this trade could change. Maybe Feliz and Martin manage to chip in something, too. Of course, it's also possible that the Pirates traded an ace for a guy best suited as a power reliever, a defensively-challenged and doubles-hitting third baseman, and spare parts. Neal Huntington seemed to prioritize quantity over quality in the Cole deal, and the results so far reflect that approach.
• Bats back from the dead: In short order, the Pirates have transformed from a team that couldn't scrape together more than a couple of runs to a mini Lumber Company. In March and April, Pittsburgh had a park and league-adjusted offense that was 25 percent worse than the overall MLB average (25th among all clubs). In May, the Pirates' bats improved to 3 percent below the MLB average (13th). Then, in June, they bludgeoned pitchers for an adjusted batting line that was 11 percent above the big league average (seventh). The biggest difference? Extra-base thump. In April, Pittsburgh's isolated power (ISO, a measure of pop found by subtracting slugging percentage from batting average) was .137. That improved to .151 in May and .189 in June.
• Surprising power: As a prospect, Kevin Newman was known as a contact-oriented batter who rarely went deep. The Pirates' 2015 first-round pick was a singles hitter in the minor leagues (.387 slugging percentage in more than 1,800 plate appearances), and he aspired to be a singles hitter after a disastrous 2018 MLB cameo (.231 slugging percentage). In 2019, though, the franchise's new rookie hitting streak record holder has slugged .482 -- far north of the .442 average for big league shortstops this season. With five home runs, Newman has already eclipsed his full-season minor league total of four in both 2017 and 2018. Newman has been especially potent versus off-speed stuff, with a .720 slugging percentage. In a half-season, Newman has gone from a guy close to being pegged as a long-term utility player to a guy who isn't about to concede playing time to Cole Tucker, Adam Frazier, Kevin Kramer, Erik Gonzalez or any other middle infield option.
STEELERS
• Does size really matter? Devin Bush is nearly universally praised for his blend of run-stuffing, pass coverage, and pass rushing ability. About the only knock you'll hear about the Michigan star and 11th overall selection in the NFL draft is his size. But is it really that uncommon to see a player like Bush (listed at 5-foot-11 and 235) at linebacker? In today's NFL -- where the demands of the position have evolved to include chasing down fleet-footed tight ends and running backs -- it's not as rare. In 2018, there were 40 linebackers who checked in at 6 feet or shorter and 240 pounds or less, according to Pro Football Reference. In 2013, there were 28 linebackers who met those measurables. As the linebacker spot is redefined, so are the types of players who man the middle of the defense. Bush's perceived lack of size shouldn't stop him from succeeding.
• Best in class: Three potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks -- Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers -- were selected in the 2004 NFL draft. On draft day, we debated which of the three would have the best career. Fifteen years later, we're debating which QB has carved out the best legacy so far. So, who you got? Rivers holds the edge in TD passes (374) over Roethlisberger (363) and Eli (360). Ben leads in passing yards (56,194) over Eli (55,981) and Rivers (54,656). Rivers (64.5 percent completion rate) just edges out Ben (64.4) in accuracy, with Eli a distant 60.3. If you measure by Pro Football Reference's Passer Rating Index, which adjusts for different offensive eras and uses a scale where 100 is league average, then Rivers and Ben are nearly neck-and-neck. Rivers ranks 17th all-time with a 112 Passer Rating Index, while Ben comes in tied for 18th at 111. Eli, meanwhile, is just 113th all-time with a 98 index. Of course, Ben and Eli can flash of pair of Super Bowl rings that Rivers would kill for.
• Extending Davis: Considering that a number of free agent safeties cashed in this offseason, and that he's entering the final year of his rookie deal, Sean Davis is facing a pivotal season in 2019. The Steelers' second-round pick in the 2016 draft has bounced around from cornerback to strong safety to free safety, where he seemed to find some traction in this past year. Davis has another year to play his way into a big payday, but how strong is his case right now? Since 2016, Davis ranks tied for 21st among safeties in Approximate Value (AV), a Pro Football Reference stat that tries to measure a player's overall contributions across different positions and different NFL eras. He's not far off from the much more heralded and better compensated Earl Thomas (17 AV) in that regard. He also ranks 11th in tackles (239). On the other hand, Davis hasn't been much of a ball hawk (five interceptions, tied for 32nd at the position since '16). If the Steelers' center fielder can pick off a few more passes, he could cash in too -- in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• I'm waiting: Despite MLB's focus on increasing pace of play, the average length of a game in 2019 (three hours, seven minutes) has increased compared to 2018 (three hours, four minutes). A decade ago, the average was a tidy 2:55. There are no shortage of reasons, including fewer balls being put in play, a surge in strikeouts and walks, and the continued specialization of pitching staffs. But there's another reason: Players seem to be contemplating the meaning of life between pitches. On average, there are 24.8 seconds between pitches thrown this season. A decade ago, it was 22 seconds between pitches. What in the name of Nomar Garciaparra and Mike Hargrove is going on here?
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