Colin Moran, still defensively challenged and lacking top-shelf power, may soon be supplanted at third base by top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes. Reliever Michael Feliz is still more arsonist than fireman. Outfielder Jason Martin is on the fourth outfielder track. And Joe Musgrove hasn’t exactly built upon his promising first season with the Pirates.
Musgrove hasn’t been terrible, mind you. But by most measures, he’s either treading water or backsliding. While his strikeout rate has remained about the same between 2018 (20.6 percent of batters faced) and 2019 (20.5 percent), he’s issuing more walks (4.7 percent in ’18, 5.5 percent in ’19) and — more important — he has become more homer prone. Last year, Musgrove surrendered just 0.94 homers per nine innings pitched. This year, he’s serving up 1.3 blasts per nine. His Fielding Independent ERA — a more accurate measure of performance based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed — has jumped from 3.59 last year to 4.24 in 2019.
Many of Musgrove’s problems this year can be traced back to his fastball. Musgrove is ultra-aggressive with the pitch, but he’s not showing the kind of power stuff needed to make that approach work.
Musgrove threw his four-seam fastball 32.5 percent of the time in 2018, according to MLB Statcast. This year, he’s relying upon the pitch 37.1 percent of the time. He’s not bashful with the fastball, locating it within the strike zone 60.6 percent of the time in ’18 and 57.7 percent so far his season (per Fangraphs). Musgrove uses his fastball to jump ahead in the count and, on occasion, challenge hitters high in the zone to generate swings and misses.
That approach served Musgrove well last year. In fact, he boasted one of the more effective four-seamers among starting pitchers. But in 2019, he’s struggling to find the same zip on his fastball. And, with less velocity, Musgrove’s I-dare-you-to-hit-it philosophy isn’t working. That’s especially the case on fastballs located to the upper third of the strike zone:
Last year, Musgrove’s opponent slugging percentage on four-seam fastballs ranked 41st out of 196 MLB pitchers who had at least 100 batted ball events with the pitch, according to MLB Statcast. This season, he ranks 107th out of 132 big league pitchers in four-seam slugging percentage against. He went from the upper 20 percent in four-seam performance to the bottom of the barrel. And his work on high four-seamers has really taken a hit, with his opponent slugging percentage skyrocketing by more than 300 points. That’s a big problem, considering that Musgrove is throwing more four-seamers to the upper third of the zone (24 percent) in 2019 than in 2018 (20 percent).
Overall, Musgrove is surrendering contact on in-zone fastballs 89.4 percent of the time. That’s up from 85.8 percent last year. After giving up three homers on four-seamers last year, he has already served up six in 2019.
Musgrove has some other challenges on his plate. He’s pushing into new territory in terms of workload, having already thrown more innings this year (124.2) than he did in 2018 (115.1). It’s a major positive that he has avoided the shoulder problems that put him on the shelf last year, but it’s worth watching how the Pirates manage Musgrove down the stretch and whether there’s any further decline in his velocity. He also has to prove that he can hold up not just late in the season, but late in games. Musgrove has allowed just a .620 OPS the first time through the lineup — far better than the .725 average for all MLB starting pitchers. But that figure jumps to .820 the second time through the lineup (.778 MLB average) and .846 versus batters the third time around (.795 average).
Challenging hitters high in the zone with four-seamers works when you’ve got the zip to make them miss or make weak contact. It doesn’t work as well when you’re sitting at 92 mph, you’re fatigued, and you’re trying to fool batters for a third time in the game. Maybe it’s time to break out the slider more often. He has thrown his low-80s slider 23.5 percent of the time, while limiting hitters to a .268 slugging percentage and generating whiffs 38 percent of the time. If Musgrove is going to remain a starter over the long term, he may need to re-think his pitch mix and approach — not to mention prove he can stay effective past the first few innings of the game.
MORE PIRATES
• Archer in reverse: Conventional wisdom says that most starting pitchers lose effectiveness as the game progresses. As the pitches pile up and batters get their second and third looks at a starter, they make harder contact. Chris Archer flips that conventional wisdom on it head. He gets crushed early on, and then settles in to be (modestly) effective. Archer has surrendered an .872 OPS the first time through the lineup this season, which is the 12th-worst mark among 125 starters who have at least 100 ABs against in that situation. He allows a .788 OPS versus batters the second time around, and a .731 OPS the third time. The big-ticket 2018 trade deadline acquisition can’t get out of his own way in the early frames.
• Hayes at the bat: Pirates fans don’t need any more bad news these days, but highly-touted third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t exactly raking at Triple-A Indianapolis this season. Sure, Hayes has matched his home run total from 2018 already, with seven. But that International League is a power hitter’s paradise this year, with teams averaging 5.3 runs per game and slugging a collective .451 after the league switched to a major league-style baseball. In 2018, teams scored 4.2 runs per game and slugged .389. Hayes is slugging just .409 this year, and his park and league-adjusted batting line is 11 percent worse than the overall average. Last year, at Double-A Altoona, Hayes was 29 percent above average at the plate. At 22, he is considered a future Gold Glove contender, and has shown hitting talent in the past. His numbers this year could be hampered by a left hand injury, but Hayes needs to step it up offensively to earn his prospect ranking.