Thanks to a strange brew of injuries, underwhelming performances and real progress made by the man himself, we can legitimately ask a question that would have seemed absurd even a few months ago: Right now, is Steven Brault the Pirates' best starting pitcher?
The lefty, once swapped from the Orioles to the Pirates as the player to be named in the Travis Snider trade, has mostly bounced between spot starter and long relief duty since breaking into the majors in 2016. And, frankly, he didn't make much of a case for sticking in the rotation. But, as the 2019 season winds down, Brault has turned it on -- and potentially solidified a spot in next year's starting five with a more aggressive, fastball-heavy approach.
Brault logged 75.2 innings pitched as a starter from 2016-18, with middling results. He struck out just 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 4.3 per nine and surrendered 1.2 homers per nine frames. His ERA was 4.76, and his peripheral stats painted an even uglier picture. Brault's Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) -- a more accurate reflection of a pitcher's performance based on K's, walks and homers allowed -- was 5.07. Brault was a fringe major league starter, more or less.
He initially lost a competition with Jordan Lyles for the fifth starter's spot this spring, but has shown significant improvement since being stretched out again. In 60 innings as a starting pitcher in 2019, Brault has boosted his K rate (8.4 per nine), modestly improved his control (3.9 BB/9) and done a better job of keeping the ball in the park (0.9 HR/9). His 4.15 FIP ranks second among current Pirates starters (Joe Musgrove is first, at 4.02) and is better than the 4.52 overall average for MLB starters this season.
Brault doesn't exactly have a prototypical power pitcher's frame, pitch arsenal or reputation. But that hasn't stopped him from employing an "I dare you to hit it" approach -- and succeeding.
Brault has thrown his four-seam fastball about 51 percent of the time as a starting pitcher this season. That's up from about 46 percent of the time as a starter from 2016-18. While he nibbled with his four-seamer in years past, throwing about 55 percent of them within the strike zone as a starter from 2016-18 (according to MLB Statcast), he has challenged hitters in the zone about 61 percent of the time in 2019.
Compared to his forgettable stint as a starter from 2016-18, Brault is getting significantly better results with his four-seamer. He's limiting hard contact, pumping fastballs to the upper portion of the zone and getting strikes by the bushel:
For comparison's sake, the average opponent slugging percentage on four-seamers is .495 for starting pitchers this season.
On the surface, there's nothing all that remarkable about Brault's four-seamer. He's throwing the pitch at an average of 91.8 mph, which is about the same as his starting stints from 2016-18 (92.2 mph). Brault's spin rate on the pitch is only about 2,040 revolutions per minute, which is below the average of about 2,260 for MLB starting pitchers. Generally speaking, fastballs with higher spin rates are more effective. So, in terms of pure velocity and movement, it's ordinary. But Brault does do a good job of getting extension toward home plate and hiding the ball from batters. The perceived velocity of his four-seamer (92.9) is more than a tick higher than his actual velocity. Perceived velocity is an MLB Statcast metric that takes into account a pitcher's release point and extension toward home plate. If perceived velocity is higher than actual velocity, that means batters have less time to react to the pitch than the radar gun would suggest.
When Brault isn't chucking high four-seam fastballs, he's relying upon a 91 mph sinker (thrown about 16 percent of the time), low-80s slider (20 percent) and a mid-80s changeup (13 percent) as a starter. Those complementary pitches are proving to be effective, too. Brault has limited opponents to a .412 slugging percentage on the sinker (.511 MLB average for starters in 2019), .269 on the changeup (.400 average) and .250 on the slider (.395 average).
Brault still has some things to prove. Can he continue to succeed high in the zone without premium velocity, or will batters adjust to his new above-the-belt game plan? Can he tamp down on the walks? Can he handle a starter's workload, considering his previous career high between the minors and majors was 155 innings pitched back in 2017? With his strong work this summer, Brault has earned the opportunity to answer those questions late this season and in 2020.
MORE PIRATES
• No thanks to you: There's no disputing that the Pirates' pitching has been horrendous during the 2019 season. But it's also true that the fielders behind them aren't doing them any favors. Collectively, the Pirates defense has been -30 runs worse than average, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS measures a player's defensive value compared to an average player at his position, while accounting for factors like range, throwing arm and double plays (for infielders). Pittsburgh ranks 24th in the majors in DRS, and ahead of only the Mets among NL teams. With should-be outs turning into hits and errors, Pirates pitchers have suffered. The team has a collective 5.01 ERA, and a 4.71 FIP. So, the Pirates pitching hasn't been good, but it looks worse because of the team's clunky fielding.
• Improved Archer: Has Chris Archer turned a corner? His early departure Tuesday because of an apparent shoulder injury clouds the picture, and we've been fooled before (see September of 2018), but the Rays ace turned Pirates pariah strung together some impressive starts in August. This month going into Tuesday's start, Archer sported a 6.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.3 K/BB ratio from April-July), a .658 opponent OPS (.816 through July) and zero home runs allowed. In highly related news, Archer had not thrown a single sinker in August. Instead, he'd thrown four-seam fastballs (about 51 percent of the time), more sliders (36 percent) and the occasional changeup (11 percent). Archer ditched the sinker after batters incinerated it to the tune of a .795 slugging percentage in 2019. Now, we just have to hope he's healthy.
STEELERS
• Watt vs. the run: T.J. Watt has established himself as an elite pass-rusher, but don't mistake him for a one-trick pony. Watt is also one of the best linebackers out there when it comes to shutting down the run game. In 2019, Watt ranked fifth among all NFL edge rushers in Stop Rate, according to Football Outsiders. Stop Rate measures how often a defender stops a play in a situation that increases the odds of his team ending the opponent's drive. Defenders are credited with a stop if they finish a play with the opponent gaining less than 45 percent of yards needed on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Watt had an impressive 90 percent Stop Rate last year, and he tackled runners an average of 1.8 yards past the line of scrimmage (28th among edge rushers).
• Spare a dime: With the the team mostly lacking linebackers who could drop into pass coverage, the 2018 Steelers relied upon the dime defensive package (six defensive backs) more than any other team in the NFL. Pittsburgh used the dime on 33 percent of defensive snaps, according to Football Outsiders. For comparison's sake, NFL teams used the dime package just 13 percent of the time overall. The dime wasn't kind to the Steelers, either, with the club performing about 15 percent worse than average on a per-snap basis when they deployed that formation. With Devin Bush and Mark Barron in the fold, the Steelers shouldn't have to use the dime package as much in 2019. And, with the secondary getting reinforcements, they shouldn't be as exposed when they do choose to put six defensive backs on the field.
• Powering up: For an offense that features a quality line and a running back in James Conner who's fully capable of trucking people, the Steelers were surprisingly reluctant to play smashmouth football in situations where it made sense. On average, NFL teams ran the ball 57 percent of the time last season in scenarios where they had to gain a yard or two on third and fourth down, or were within two yards of the end zone. The Steelers, by contrast, ran just 45 percent of the time in power situations (29th among teams). When they did try to outmuscle the defense, they often succeeded. Pittsburgh gained a first down or scored a touchdown 71 percent of the time in power running situations, which ranked fifth among NFL teams. With Benny Snell joining Conner in the backfield, and the Steelers seeking greater offensive balance this season, they could rely more on the running game in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
PENGUINS
• Clone Pettersson? The Penguins face an interesting decision with defenseman Marcus Pettersson in 2019-20 -- and I don't just mean in creating enough cap room to get him inked to a longer-term contract. Pettersson's swift skating, puck handling and defensive prowess show that he's ready for top-four minutes next season. But if they split up Pettersson and Jack Johnson, and have a third-line pairing of Johnson and fellow big man Erik Gudbranson, things could get ugly. When Johnson skated with Pettersson during five-on-five play last season, the Penguins scored half of the game's total goals and had 48 percent of total shots generated. When Johnson skated with another defensive partner at even strength, the Penguins scored just 41 percent of total goals and generated 45 percent of shots. If you take Pettersson off Johnson's line, an already slumping player falls further into the abyss. On the other hand, Pettersson deserves more minutes, and you can make the case that Johnson may have dragged down Pettersson's game. Pettersson's goals-for rate jumped to 65.7 percent when he skated with a defender other than Johnson, with the Penguins generating 54.3 percent of total shots.
• Sid's two-way game: Some players who compile 100 points would be perfectly content to mail it in defensively. Sidney Crosby is not one of those guys. As he enters his 15th NHL season, and as he climbs the all-time scoring list, Crosby has is stepping up his defensive game. Last year, Crosby racked up the second-highest number of takeaways (54) of his career, ranking behind only his 2008-09 campaign. He also posted the second-best Defensive Point Share (DPS) total of his career. DPS measures the value of a skater's defensive contributions in terms of his team's overall points total in the standings. Crosby chipped in 2.4 points with his strong defensive play in 2018-19, which places behind only his 2.8 DPS in 2013-14. Sid ranked 14th among all NHL forwards, and ninth among centers, in DPS last year.
• Carrying the load: Here's another interesting part of Crosby's game in his thirties: He's creating a ton of offense, but he's spreading the wealth more often. Crosby posted his lowest shots per game total (2.8) of his career last season, and his highest assists per game total (0.82) in five seasons. Thanks to stat-cruncher Corey Sznajder, who recently created a public database of zone entries and exits, we can see just how well Crosby generated offensive chances in certain situations. Last year, Crosby carried the puck while transitioning between zones an average of 15.7 times per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. The NHL average for forwards is about 10 carries between zones per 60 minutes. So, Sid possesses the puck a ton when the Penguins are in transition. But he then passes the puck 43 percent of the time when transitioning between zones, which is the highest rate among all forwards and is nearly two and a half times above the NHL average (17.7 percent). Somewhere, Jake Guentzel is grinning.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• A great divide: If it seems like most of the MLB playoff race action is centered on the wild card, you're on to something. Right now, there aren't all that many compelling division races outside of the NL Central. According to Fangraphs' Playoff Odds, five of the six divisions have a team with at least a three in four chance of raising a banner: The NL West (Dodgers, 100 percent chance of winning the division), AL West (Astros, 99.8 percent), AL East (Yankees, 99.2 percent) NL East (Braves, 81.7 percent) and AL Central (Twins, 76.2 percent). Only the NL Central (where the Cubs have a 61.2 percent chance and the Cardinals a 26.4 percent shot) is seemingly up for grabs.
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