For at least one glorious evening, Trevor Williams re-captured that second-half magic from 2018. Williams threw six scoreless innings versus the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 24, limiting the Pirates' division rival — and occasional pro wrestling opponent — to three hits. Despite his modest velocity, he pumped fastballs to the corners of the zone and induced feeble contact. He looked like the breakout pitcher who conjured up memories of Jake Arrieta circa 2015 while posting a 1.38 ERA after the All-Star break last season.
Unfortunately, Williams has rarely been in top form in 2019. His ERA has ballooned by more than two full runs (from 3.11 in '18 to 5.35), and he has been throttled since returning from a side injury that shelved him for about a month. Pitchers with Williams' stuff — low-90s heat, a decent slider, a show-me changeup — have to be surgical on the mound. And too often this season, his command has been off just enough to get crushed.
Williams' strikeout and walk rates are virtually unchanged between 2018 and 2019. He whiffed 18 percent of batters last year, and 17.1 percent this season. He issued walks in 7.9 percent of plate appearances in '18, and 6.7 percent in '19. Williams doesn't miss many bats, but he's stingy with free passes. What has changed — and changed dramatically — is his home run rate. Williams surrendered a homer on 8 percent of fly balls hit against him last year, and 14.2 percent this season. The league average is 15.2 percent.
You could make a case that Williams got lucky on fly balls last year, and that has reversed this season. You could also say the same about his batting average on balls in play (which has climbed from .261 in '18 to .303 in '19) and his strand rate (76.6 percent of base runners left on last year, 67.7 percent this year). On the whole, pitchers have less direct control over home run per fly ball rate, BABIP, and strand rate. Williams was an outlier on all three last year, and he has regressed toward the average this year. His luck ran out.
That's true, but there's more at play here. Williams was exceptional at inducing weak contact in 2018, limiting batters to an average exit velocity (85.6 mph) that was about two ticks below the MLB average (87.5 mph). This year, batters are putting balls in play at exactly the league average exit velocity. Opponents are hitting Williams harder, and those higher-velocity balls in play are doing more damage. One of the main reasons is that Williams' command has been off — particularly on his bread-and-butter four-seam fastball.
Williams throws his four-seamer about 53 percent of the time, at an average of 91.6 mph (according to MLB Statcast). It's his primary weapon, but it's not exactly drawing comparisons to Gerrit Cole or Noah Syndergaard's gas. Pitchers with Williams' kind of profile — particularly those who don't have plus secondary pitches — typically need to avoid the heart of the strike zone and hit the corners to be effective. Last year, he did that reasonably well. And when he did leave one over the middle, opponents didn't take full advantage. This season? Not so much.
In 2018, Williams threw about 23 percent of his four-seam fastballs to the horizontal middle of the strike zone, according to Statcast. This year, he's tossing belt-high fastballs about 26 percent of the time (the league average is about 22 percent). Williams threw 20 percent of his four-seamers to the vertical middle of the zone last year — right around the league average — but that rate has increased to 23 percent in 2019.
So, Williams is leaving more four-seam fastballs over the heart of the plate. Remarkably, he didn't get burned when he did that last season. But this year, batters are doing way more damage when Williams fails to hit the corners of the zone:
In 2018, opponents slugged a measly .338 against his four-seamer. That was well below the .493 MLB average for starting pitchers. This year, with Williams displaying inconsistent command, batters are slugging .538. They have already taken Williams deep 11 times on a four-seamer, after doing so just seven times in 2018.
Last year, Williams was both extremely lucky and good. This year, his pitch execution has suffered and opponents aren't letting him off the hook when he serves up a middle-of-the-plate pitch.
Williams' Aug. 24 start versus the Reds offers a blueprint of what he needs to do to succeed. He threw his four-seamer nearly half of the time (46 percent of total pitches). Just 5 percent of those four-seamers were thrown to the absolute middle of the zone — meaning both belt-high, and in middle of that plate. That's half of his rate with the pitch for the 2019 season. Williams displayed sharp four-seam fastball command, and zeros followed.
With the Pirates suffering so many injuries and the farm system lacking close-to-the-majors prospects who can make an impact (aside from rotation regular Mitch Keller), Williams has an opportunity to finish the season strong and prove he deserves to be part of the team's starting five in 2020. He's not the guy who went on an historic tear during the second half of 2018, but he's also probably not the guy who got completely shelled over the past couple of months. If he's back to full health and has indeed rediscovered his fastball command, Williams is at least a passable starter on a team that has often lacked even that performance level this year.
MORE PIRATES
• Striking early: In the batter's box, Starling Marte is not a patient man. The Pirates' center fielder has swung at 40.4 percent of first pitches, which is well north of the 28.2 percent league average (according to MLB Statcast). And when he takes a cut at the first pitch, he's lethal. Marte has launched seven first-pitch home runs this season and boasts a .677 slugging percentage in those situations. He's in the top 15 in first-pitch homers and slugging percentage among all MLB hitters. For comparison's sake, the average big leaguer slugs .633 on the first pitch. Marte's career first-pitch slugging percentage is .636.
• Launching point: Few players have taken advantage of the injuries and under-performance that have plagued the 2019 Pirates more than Jose Osuna. During his first two years in the majors, Osuna's park- and league-adjusted batting line was 23 percent worse than the overall MLB average. This year, Osuna's adjusted batting line has rocketed to 35 percent above average in limited (but growing) playing time. It's too early to say whether the 26-year-old, who compiled a good-not-great resume at Triple-A (career .842 OPS), has made a true breakthrough. But his swing this season is more conducive to power hitting. Osuna's launch angle — the vertical angle at which the ball leaves the bat after contact — has climbed from about 8.5 degrees in 2017-18 to 11 degrees this year. To put that in context, MLB Statcast notes that balls hit with a launch angle under 10 degrees are likely ground balls. Balls in the 10-25 degree range are line drives, and the 25-50 range are fly balls. With a more uppercut swing, Osuna has decreased his ground ball rate from 51 percent in 2017-18 to 45 percent in 2019. His batted balls, and perhaps his MLB career, have achieved lift off.
STEELERS
• Third down rebound: The 2018 Steelers defense was decent overall, ranking sixth in yards allowed per game (327.2) and 15th in points (22.5). But they struggled to get off the field in third-down situations. The Steelers defense was 6.6 percent better on a per-play basis than the average NFL defense on first downs last season, according to Football Outsiders. That ranked seventh-best among all clubs. They were a middle-of-the-road defense on second down (-0.3 percent worse than average per play, 17th among teams), and a lower-tier defense when they could have forced a punt. Pittsburgh's D was 10.3 percent worse than the NFL average on third down, ranking 22nd. The hope in 2019 is that with continued front-seven pressure and improved pass defense, the Steelers can squelch the kind of long drives that dogged them last year.
• Secondary depth: Why was bolstering the cornerback position such an imperative over the offseason? Because, while Joe Haden typically locked down their opponents' top receiving target, other pass-catchers had a field day. On a per-play basis, the Steelers were 6 percent above average against opponents' No. 1 wide receiver (10th among NFL teams). But they ranked 19th among No. 2 receivers (2.4 percent worse than average), and 25th versus third receivers (10.8 percent below average). With Haden still going strong, Steven Nelson and Justin Layne in the fold, and perhaps some growth from Cam Sutton (and who knows, maybe a return from the dead from Artie Burns), the Steelers are looking to contain secondary receiving options that torched them in 2018.
• 'Backer coverage: The hoped-for improvements in pass defense won't just come from the secondary. With first-round pick Devin Bush and free agent Mark Barron (a converted safety) getting lots of snaps in 2019, the Steelers will almost assuredly improve a glaring weakness in pass coverage at middle linebacker. In 2018, the since-released Jon Bostic allowed an average of 9.8 yards per reception on plays where he was targeted, according to Football Outsiders. That ranked 75th among NFL linebackers. Vince Williams — who may see a reduction from the 745 snaps that he took last year — was better, but hardly a standout (7.3 yards allowed per reception, 52nd among 'backers). Bush, meanwhile, was considered one of the rangiest linebackers available in the 2019 draft, and Barron ranked 43rd in pass coverage last year at 6.9 yards allowed.
PENGUINS
• Turnover talk: Every year, many fans and analysts seem to ask the same existential question: Is Kris Letang just too reckless? Despite Letang coming off a mostly brilliant 2018-19 campaign — one in which he posted 0.86 points per game (fifth among all NHL defensemen who played 40+ games) and helped the Penguins generate 6.8 percent more shots at even strength when he skated compared to when he was off the ice (second among blueliners) — the question remains. Letang has undoubtedly had some high-profile missteps in the playoffs and does occasionally try to play the hero, but he's not really all that much more turnover-prone than most defensemen. Last year, Letang committed 2.2 turnovers per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick. That was only the fifth-highest giveaway rate among Penguins defensemen, and it ranked 100th-highest among 209 NHL defensemen who skated 500+ minutes in five-on-five play. His playoff mistakes have been magnified, but Letang might not be as reckless a player as you think. And on the whole, he remains one of the best in the game.
• Quality netminding: The Penguins enter 2019-20 with two goalies who are coming off high-caliber campaigns — Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith. And while some are anxious about trying to pass Tristan Jarry through waivers and have floated the idea of shopping DeSmith, that looks dicey to me. You want a strong backup, given Murray's injury history and the grueling nature of the NHL season, and DeSmith earned his keep in 30 starts last season. DeSmith had an expected save percentage of .919 during five-on-five play, according to Corsica Hockey. Expected save rate is based on the quality of scoring chances that a goalie must combat — things like shot location, shot type and odd-man rush situations. DeSmith's actual save rate during five-on-five play was .929. So, DeSmith stopped more shots than expected based on the caliber of chances he faced. His five-on-five save rate tied for 12th among all goalies with 1,500+ minutes in such situations. Considering that strong work, DeSmith's reasonable contract ($1.25 million annually through 2021-22) and Murray's injuries, do you really want to give 20-30 starts to Jarry?
• Dirty work: At 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds, newly acquired winger Dominik Kahun isn't a big guy. But he's not afraid to park himself in front of the net and take the requisite punishment that entails. About 47 percent of Kahun's shots came either within the goal crease (20 percent) or in the area directly in front of the crease (27 percent), according to the Icy Data website. The NHL average is about 12 percent of shots within the crease, and 22 percent of shots directly in front of the crease (34 percent total in those areas). Eighty-four percent of Kahun's goals came in those two down-low areas, compared to the 61 percent league average. If Kahun manages to get top-line minutes, he could get some of the brilliant passes and juicy rebounds close to the net that Sidney Crosby so often generates.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Sayonara, Sinker: In this power-centric MLB era, where even middle infielders come to the plate ready to rip, the sinker is practically going extinct. Back in 2015 (the first year of Statcast), pitchers threw sinkers 9.7 percent of the time. Batters slugged a collective .434 against the pitch. Jump just a few years to 2019, and pitchers are using sinkers only 7.5 percent of the time. And with good reason, considering the more upper-cut swing that players are taking has led to them slugging .481 off the pitch. These days, it doesn't pay to pound hitters at the knees.
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