With JuJu Smith-Schuster out, Duck Hodges in, and the Steelers’ playoff hopes on the line, James Washington picked the ideal time to have a breakout game.
The second-year wideout hauled in all four passes thrown his way versus the Browns, for a career-best 111 yards. And they weren’t just catches — they were explosive, improbable and spectacular. He made a contested, toe-tapping catch. He snagged a deep TD pass, despite getting tackled to the ground before the ball arrived. And he burned a former top-five NFL pick at corner for good measure. He was everything the Steelers hoped for when they selected him out of Oklahoma State with the 60th overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Washington’s big game and strong 2019 season are even more remarkable when you consider the depths to which he had fallen last year. After an historically bad rookie year, Washington has the look of another shrewd wide receiver draft pick for the Steelers beyond the first round.
Plainly spoken, Washington had a brutal first year.
In the new millennium, there have been 148 wide receivers selected within the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Washington ranked 84th among that cohort as a rookie in yards per reception (13.6), 119th in receiving yards (217), 123rd in receptions (16) and 130th in catch rate (42.1 percent). While some hoped that Washington could make a JuJu-like impact as a rookie, he instead tumbled down the depth chart while drawing the ire of Ben Roethlisberger. Entering 2019, Washington looked like the fourth man behind Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and Diontae Johnson.
Instead, with Smith-Schuster ailing, Washington has become the No. 1 target. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards (578), and is on pace to finish the 2019 season with about 800. Despite the QB carousel, he has boosted his catch rate (55.6 percent) and has emerged as one of the league's big-play threats:
Washington is making more happen after the ball is in his hands, increasing his average yards after the catch from 3.3 as a rookie to 5.0. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he's averaging about one more yard after the catch per reception than an average NFL receiver based on factors like the passing distance, game situation and the location of the nearest defenders on the field.
You can make the case that on a per-play basis, Washington has been one of the league's better receivers this season. Football Outsiders keeps track of a stat called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA compares the value that a receiver creates per play based on factors like the game situation and the quality of competition. Washington has been about 13.5 percent better than an average NFL receiver per play, which ranks 17th in the league among those targeted with at least 48 passes this season. That's the best on the team, and it's not even close (Smith-Schuster sits at -5.5 percent worse than average per play, and Johnson is -12.7 per play). For comparison's sake, Washington was 25 percent below average in DVOA as a rookie.
Fans, analysts and the Steelers' front office all seemed down on Washington entering 2019, and understandably so. But, amid unimaginable injuries and roster churn on offense, he has emerged as a game-breaking--and potentially season-saving--weapon.
MORE STEELERS
• He didn’t kill them: Mike Tomlin set a pretty low bar for Devlin Hodges leading up to the Browns rematch, and it’s safe to say the Duck cleared it. The undrafted, undersized, previously-waived FCS quarterback completed 14 of 21 passes for 212 yards versus Cleveland, with a TD and an interception apiece. Hodges wasn’t exactly quick in getting rid of the ball, with an average time to throw of 3.1 seconds according to NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth-longest among QBs in Week 13), but the offensive line protected him well (just one sack allowed). While previous starter Mason Rudolph mainly stuck to short passes and screens, Hodges aired it out more often. The average completed air yards on his passes was eight, ranking third among QBs in Week 13. On throws of at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, he was four of six for 133 yards and one touchdown.
• Hargrave’s gonna get paid: Javon Hargrave is playing a more prominent role in the team’s scheme, taking 58 percent of the Steelers’ defensive snaps in 2019 after being on the field 44 percent of the time last year. That uptick in playing time is paying dividends for Pittsburgh now, and will surely help Hargrave’s bank account as he negotiates his next contract. While his sack total is in line with his 2018 output (four so far in 2019, 6.5 in 2018), he has already surpassed his 2018 totals in tackles for loss (seven in '19, six in '18) and quarterback pressures (12 in '19, 10 in '18) and will soon do so in tackles (45 in '19, 49 in '18). Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Hargrave ranks 11th among all defensive tackles in sacks (10.5), 16th in tackles for loss (13) and 23rd in QB hits (13). Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt (before his injury) get the headlines, but don't underestimate the havoc Hargrave creates, too.
PENGUINS
• Jarry excelling: Once again, the Penguins seemingly have a strong option to take the load off Matt Murray in net. Tristan Jarry, who had a so-so performance in the AHL last year and who was subject to trade chatter this past offseason, has looked the part of a quality NHL goalie so far. His adjusted goals allowed rate is 23 percent better than the overall league average, compared to four percent worse than average during his last extended NHL playing time in 2017-18. His rebound control has been solid (he's allowing 2.5 per 60 minutes of even-strength play, which is sixth among goalies with 300+ minutes in such situations), and he's bailing out the Penguins on the rare occasions when they allow a juicy scoring chance. Jarry has an .846 save rate against high-danger shots, which are those with the best odds of turning into goals based on shot location, type, and odd-man rush situations. That's in the upper third among goalies with 300+ minutes of five-on-five time in the net. Let's not get carried away with the goalie controversy stuff, but Jarry has been surprisingly good.
• Instant chemistry: They weren't supposed to be skating together, and they don't (yet) have a catchy name like HBK, but the improvised line of Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust has been awesome. At least, they were before Rust was felled by injury again. With those three on the ice together during five-on-five play, the Penguins have generated 55.8 percent of the game's total shots, 63 percent of scoring chances, 67.7 percent of high-danger scoring chances and 63.6 percent of goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. This line might be a fleeting memory in a few months, especially when Sidney Crosby returns, but man, it has been fun to watch.
• Kahun catching on: After a slow start, winger Dominik Kahun is providing the Penguins with everything they could have hoped for when they acquired the 24-year-old from the Blackhawks in exchange for Olli Maatta. Kahun has managed 0.58 points per game with the Pens, up from 0.45 as a rookie in 2018-19, while pestering opponents on the defensive side. With Kahun skating at even strength, Pittsburgh is allowing just 23.9 shots per 60 minutes. That’s the lowest shots against rate on the team, and the fifth-lowest among all NHL forwards who have skated at least 250 minutes at even strength. He’s opportunistic defensively (2.7 takeaways per 60 minutes, third-best on the team) and he rarely makes mistakes when he gets the puck (0.4 turnovers per 60 minutes, lowest on Pittsburgh and the fifth-lowest rate among all NHL forwards). Credit Jim Rutherford for picking up another fast, well-rounded and inexpensive winger who fits Mike Sullivan’s playing style.
PIRATES
• The Polanco project: Considering his hitting-centered background, new manager Derek Shelton may invest some extra time this spring with Gregory Polanco. After clubbing a career-high 23 home runs and slugging nearly .500 in 2018, Polanco slogged through an injury-shortened 2019 while not yet fully recovered from left shoulder surgery. Polanco’s plate discipline took a step back last year, with his walk rate tumbling from 11.4 percent in ’18 to 7.2 percent and his strikeout rate climbing from 21.9 percent to 29.3 percent. He chased more pitches outside of the zone (24.4 percent in ’18, 29.2 percent in ’19) and rarely connected on those chases (58.8 percent contact rate in ’18 and 45.4 percent in ’19). Polanco, now 28, is getting into the portion of his long-term deal where he’s starting to make some real money by Pirates standards ($8.6 million in 2020, $11.6 million in 2021, and club options worth $12.5 million in 2022 and $13.5 million in 2023). Maybe Shelton, who received some credit for helping Twins morph into sluggers, can help a healthier Polanco re-calibrate his strike zone and re-discover his power.
• The heat's on Tucker: After getting rushed to the majors because of a litany of middle-infield injuries in 2019, Cole Tucker was overmatched. The team's 2014 first-round pick had a park- and league-adjusted batting line that was 39 percent worse than the overall MLB average. That ranked 380th out of 411 big leaguers who had at least 150 plate appearances. Pitchers fed Tucker plenty of fastballs (62.5% of total pitches seen), and the switch-hitter struggled to turn on them. Tucker batted .198 versus the heat (.274 MLB average), and he slugged .383 (.476 average). He also struggled to make contact, swinging and missing at 8.5 percent of fastballs seen (5.6 percent average). Tucker's still just 23, and he acclimated himself well defensively. But the front office that considered him a first-round talent is gone, and his Triple-A hitting was lackluster too (five percent worse than the overall league average). Tucker needs to make some strides at the plate, and close some holes against fastballs, to prove worthy of being one of the Pirates' starting middle infielders over the long term.
• Kuhl returns: As a new front office and coaching staff tries to improve the wasteland that was the 2019 Pirates pitching staff, they may benefit from the return of Chad Kuhl. The 27-year-old righty, set to return from Tommy John surgery performed in September of 2018, could be an option as a back-end starter or a power reliever for Pittsburgh next year. He's also a fascinating project for whomever becomes the Bucs' next pitching coach. Pre-Tommy John, Kuhl sported dominant breaking stuff. He limited batters to a .295 slugging percentage off his upper-80s slider in 2018, compared to the .380 league average, and his low-80s curveball was even more wicked (.188 opponent slugging percentage, nearly 200 points below the .383 league average). But his fastball, despite sitting in the mid-90s, was a batting practice pitch. Kuhl threw a sinker about 37 percent of the time in 2018 and allowed a .600 slugging percentage (.479 average). Against his four seamer, thrown 22 percent of the time, batters slugged .547 (.487). Kuhl had plenty of velocity, his four-seamer in particular had a below-average spin rate (meaning the pitches had less movement than average heaters). With his four-seamer, Kuhl had an average spin rate of 2,186 rpm (2,287 rpm league average). Why does that matter? On the whole, four-seamers with more spin are more effective. The higher the spin rate, the less hard contact. For example, opponents slugged .473 off four-seamers with a spin rate above 2,300, .463 off four-seamers with a spin rate above 2,400 and .441 off four-seamers with a spin rate above 2,500. Kuhl's sinker doesn't sink much (16 percent less sink that the league average sinker), and his four-seamer is too true. The next pitching coach must help Kuhl find a better balance of fastball velocity and movement.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Diminishing returns: While big punt and kick returns can still alter the outcomes of games, you could argue that these aspects of special teams play have never been less relevant. Thanks in part to rules changes designed to reduce injuries, teams are returning fewer punts and kicks and getting less out of those returns. A decade ago, teams returned an average of 2.2 punts per game and gained 9.6 yards per return. This season, they're returning 1.7 punts per game and averaging 7.2 yards per return (the lowest average return since 1972). Teams averaged four kick returns per game a decade ago, with 22.3 yards per return. The average return hasn't changed much (22.5 in 2019), but clubs are running out just 1.8 kicks per game this year. If you make your living in large part as a return man, rent, don't buy.
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