Pittsburghers are a proud, protective bunch. We’ll ardently defend the merits of Primanti Brothers over any cheesesteak pretender. Think Wawa’s better than GetGo? Get outta here. Heinz over Hunt's ketchup all day. And if you say the Brady/Belichick dynasty trumps the 1970s Super Steelers? Well, those are fighting words.
It’s no surprise, then, that some Pittsburghers are grumbling about Alex Ovechkin recently passing Mario Lemieux on the all-time goals scored list. That has prompted some to question whether the Great Eight is the greatest scoring talent of this generation—or any other.
Does Ovechkin really match up with Le Magnifique?
And what about other Penguins legends past (Jaromir Jagr) and present (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin)?
It’s time for a Steel City showdown.
First, let's define the rules of engagement. Lemieux and, to a lesser extent, Jagr played in a different and higher-scoring era than Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin. So, to account for that difference and make an apples-to-apples comparison, we're going to measure these guys using a Hockey-Reference stat: adjusted points. Adjusted points scales a player's goal and assist totals based upon the offensive environment in which he played, allowing for a more direct comparison across different NHL eras. We'll consider the full scope of Jagr's career, though he obviously played many years outside of Pittsburgh. No word on whether a hair adjustment is made. That'd be a clear advantage for the mullet-rocking, early-90s Penguins stars.
Once you adjust for the overall offensive environments in which they played, Lemieux and Ovechkin are in a class all their own in terms of goal scoring. Lemieux averaged 0.67 adjusted goals per game during his brilliant-but-injury curtailed career--nearly dead even with Ovechkin (0.7 per game). Crosby (0.53 adjusted goals), Malkin (0.52) and Jagr (0.49) have also given goalies nightmares, but not to the same extent as Ovi and Mario.
What separates Mario, though, is his play-making ability. During his career, Lemieux averaged 1.01 adjusted assists per game. That blows Ovechkin's rate (0.55 per game) out of the water. The Capitals star may have the most lethal shot of his generation, but he doesn't set up his teammates for success like Lemieux did. Crosby (0.89 adjusted assists per game), Malkin (0.81) and Jagr (0.71) also have better assist rates than Ovechkin.
Overall, Lemieux is a step above Ovechkin and other Penguins legends in total offense. He boasts the fourth-best adjusted points per game rate in NHL history among guys with 500 or more games played. And, if you limit the list to Modern Era players (1967-68 to present), he ranks first--just ahead of Wayne Gretzky (1.66 per game). Crosby, Malkin and Jagr all rank in the top 20 in NHL history, too.
Of course, this showdown wouldn't be complete without considering career longevity. Lemieux played in only 915 career regular-season games--a total already surpassed by Ovechkin (1,133) and Crosby (965), and soon to be surpassed by Malkin (889). And then there's the martian that is Jagr, who played in 1,733 games, is still skating with Kladno in the Czech Republic, and probably will be doing so 50 years from now. Volume matters. Jagr ranks third all-time in total adjusted points (2,080), trailing only Gretzky (2,745) and Gordie Howe (2,190). Lemieux (1,540) places 11th, with Ovechkin (1,421) checking in at 18th, Crosby (1,375) 26th and Malkin (1,182) 49th. Ovi, Sid and Geno will all pass Lemieux in adjusted points in the not-too-distant future.
So, who's the best? It depends how you measure it. On a per-game basis, Lemieux may well be the best player who has ever taken the ice. Jagr was also prodigious, and had nearly unprecedented longevity. Among the current players, Crosby and Malkin hold a slight offensive edge over their Washington nemesis through this point in their respective careers.
So puff out your chest, Pittsburghers. No matter how you measure it, the Penguins legends are (slightly) greater than the Great Eight.
MORE PENGUINS
• Stopping shorties: One of the best ways to demonstrate the difference between the fast-and-loose 2018-19 Penguins and the disciplined-but-dangerous 2019-20 version is the number of short-handed goals allowed. Last year, Pittsburgh coughed up 15 short-handed goals--tied for the most in the NHL. This year, though? The Penguins have allowed just three short-handed goals, which is tied for the third-lowest total in the league. And on the penalty kill, the team remains opportunistic. After scoring 12 short-handed goals in '18-19 (fourth-most in the league), the Penguins again rank toward the top with six goals scored with the man disadvantage (tied for seventh-most).
• A helping hand: Malkin is scoring goals at a rate (0.41 per game) that's consistent with his career average (0.46), but he has been an even better play-maker than usual in 2019-20. Malkin has 0.95 assists per game this year, which ranks fifth among qualified skaters and is tied with his 2008-09 season for the best mark of his 14-year career. The last Penguin to post more assists per game in a single season was Crosby (1.06) back in 2006-07. In franchise history, the only players with a higher single-season assist rate than Geno this year are Lemieux, Ron Francis, Paul Coffey, Jagr, Rob Brown and John Cullen. Lemieux has the top six single-season assist rates in Penguins history, with his 1992-93 campaign (1.52 per game) topping the list.
STEELERS
• Historically bad QB play: Everyone knows that the Steelers endured some rough quarterback performances after Ben Roethlisberger was lost for the season. But just how bad? During the post-merger era (1970-present), the Steelers have had 61 quarterbacks throw at least 100 passes in a season. Of that group, Devlin Hodges had the fourth-worst adjusted passer rating (27 percent below the overall NFL average). Only Mike Tomczak (48 percent below average in 1995), Terry Bradshaw (36 percent below average in 1970) and Mark Malone (36 percent below average) were worse than the Duck. Mason Rudolph, meanwhile, had the 13th-worst adjusted passer rating at 13 percent below the league average.
• Bullied in the run game: Overall, the Steelers' 2019 defense was elite. The team ranked near the top of the league in a smorgasbord of categories, including turnovers (38, first), yards allowed per game (304.1, fifth) and points per game (18.9, tied for fifth). But there was one area where they didn't excel--stopping the run in short-yardage situations. The Steelers ranked tied for 30th among defenses in Power Success Rate, a Football Outsiders stat that measures how often a team allows a first down or a touchdown on third or fourth down when the opposition needs to gain two yards or less. The Steelers allowed teams to convert 76 percent of the time in such situations, which tied with the Browns. Only the Colts (83 percent) allowed teams to win the line of scrimmage more often.
• Multi-talented menace: As you ponder T.J. Watt’s case for Defensive Player of the Year, here’s a fun fact about how many ways he wrecked offenses in 2019. Watt became only the third player in NFL history to compile at least 10 sacks, eight forced fumbles and two interceptions in a single season, according to Pro-Football Reference. The other two players? Jason Taylor (13.5 sacks, nine forced fumbles and two INTs in 2006) and Tony Brackens (12 sacks, eight forced fumbles and two INTs in 1999).
PIRATES
• First-pitch problems: When batters decide to swing at the first pitch of an at-bat, trouble ensues. Overall, MLB hitters slugged .630 last year off those offerings—which tend to be meatballs (otherwise, they would take the pitch). But even by those standards, Chris Archer got pummeled. Opponents teed off to the tune of an .840 slugging percentage against Archer on the first pitch in 2019, with seven homers. Archer had the ninth-worst first-pitch slugging percentage among all pitchers last year (minimum 50 first-pitch batters faced), and he gave up the 15th-most home runs. Archer threw a majority of fastballs on the first pitch (59 percent of his total pitches). And his location suffered, with 24 percent of his first-pitch offerings catching the horizontal middle of the zone, according to MLB Statcast (19 percent MLB average). If Archer’s going to rebound in 2020, he’ll need to lay off the cookies.
• Going upstairs: Steven Brault doesn’t exactly boast elite fastball velocity—he averaged 92.1 mph last year with his four-seamer—but he nonetheless managed to get power pitcher results. Brault limited opponents to a .296 slugging percentage on four-seam fastballs thrown to the upper third of the zone, per MLB Statcast. That ranked in the top 40 among all MLB pitchers who threw at least 100 upper-zone fastballs (starting pitcher or reliever) and outpaced the .387 big league average in that location by a wide margin. Deception and extension play a big role for Brault. The perceived velocity of Brault’s fastball—which factors in how close to the plate that he releases the ball—is more than a tick higher (93.2 mph) than his actual velocity. That means Brault's fastball looks, well, faster to opposing hitters.
• Can Tucker stand the heat? If Cole Tucker is going to hack it in the majors, he'll have to prove that he can handle fastballs. The switch-hitter saw far more fastballs (62.1 percent of total pitches, according to MLB Statcast) than the average MLB hitter (58.3 percent), and he mostly flailed against the heat. Tucker batted .198 and slugged .383 off fastballs, while the average MLB player posted a .274 average and a .476 slugging percentage. He whiffed 28.3 percent of the time that he swung at fastballs, far north of the 20.3 percent league average. Tucker got rushed to the majors, so it's not surprising that he was overmatched in 2019. But he has a long way to go to be an asset at the plate.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• But he's no Honus: Want to start a fight with Yankees fans? Tell them that our first-ballot Hall of Fame shortstop is better than theirs. New York's Derek Jeter was recently elected to Cooperstown, and his credentials are sterling. During his career, Jeter was about 20 percent above average offensively and he posted the sixth-highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total all-time among shortstops at 73.1, according to Fangraphs. WAR measures a player's offensive, defense and base running value compared to a fringe major-leaguer. That's awesome, but consider that Honus Wagner was about 40 percent above average offensively and he had the highest WAR total (138.1) ever at the position (and the fifth-highest among all position players). You can argue about the level of competition between the drastically different era in which these legends played. But The Flying Dutchman dominated his era more than The Captain.
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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