If Jim Rutherford had his druthers, the Penguins would have acquired Jason Zucker during this past offseason in a mega-deal involving Phil Kessel. Instead, Rutherford took a more circuitous route to obtain the speedy Minnesota winger--one that involved packaging the guy who was supposed to soften the blow of losing Kessel's scoring touch (Alex Galchenyuk), a prized defensive prospect (Calen Addison) and a future first-round pick.
Zucker has already experienced the benefits of playing on Sidney Crosby's wing, burying goals off seemingly telepathic passes from No. 87. But long-term, what are the Penguins getting in the 28-year-old Zucker, who's signed through the 2022-23 season with a cap hit of $5.5 million per year?
Offensively, Zucker has been more of a pure goal scorer than a play maker who sets up his teammates with prime scoring chances. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, he has averaged 0.33 goals, 0.32 assists and 0.65 points per game. Among the 306 NHL forwards who have played in at least 150 games over that time frame, Zucker ranks 72nd in goals per game, 136th in assists and 106 in points per game.
Digging deeper into his offensive game, Zucker isn't shy about peppering goals with shots (he has averaged 8.8 per 60 minutes of five-on-five play over the past three years, which ranks 40th among NHL forwards). He's fairly responsible with the puck, averaging 1.4 giveaways per 60 minutes since '17-'18 (61st-lowest among forwards).
With his speed and decidedly un-Galchenyuk-like, north-south style, Zucker creates some havoc for defenders. He has created 8.4 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes of even-strength play since 2017-18, according to Natural Stat Trick, which ranks 63rd among NHL forwards. And when opponents get caught flat-footed, Zucker frequently gives his team the man advantage. He has drawn 1.1 penalties per 60 minutes over the past three years, which places him in the top 25 among all forwards.
Overall, Zucker has been a net positive offensively. Since '17-'18, he has boosted his team's share of overall shots taken at event strength by 3.9 percent (35th among forwards), scoring chances by 5.4 percent (22) and goals by 1.9 percent (109) when he's on the ice compared to when Zucker is on the bench.
After Zucker was acquired, Mike Sullivan also cited his new winger's defensive conscience. The numbers are a little more mixed on that front. But again, he's decidedly un-Galchenyuk-like on D. Zucker's speed also helps put pressure on opponents, allowing him to average 2.4 takeaways per 60 minutes at event strength over the past three seasons (56th among forwards). With Zucker skating, his teams have allowed 1.3 percent more shots and 0.8 percent more scoring chances, but -0.5 percent fewer goals. In the ways that we can measure, Zucker has been about neutral on defense.
With above average offense and passable D, Zucker has helped drive puck possession. With him on the ice at even strength, his teams have taken +2.3 percent more of the game's overall shot total (for and against) since 2017-18. That ranks 69th among NHL forwards over that time frame.
Judging by Point Shares, a Hockey Reference stat that measures a player's offensive and defensive value in terms of points contributed in the standings, he qualifies as a top-six winger on his new Stanley Cup-contending team:
Zucker isn't a superstar, and he won't completely replace the production lost when Jake Guentzel crashed into the boards in late December. But he is a quality two-way player who fits Sullivan's playing style and is under contract for three years beyond this season. That's far more than you can say for the man he directly replaced in the lineup, and it makes the Penguins a better bet to avoid another early-round playoff exit this spring.
MORE PENGUINS
• Playing the wrong way: With injuries continuing to mount and Sullivan basically down to three effective lines before the Zucker deal, the Penguins' once-stellar defensive play has slipped a bit. Over the past calendar month, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play (34.2), while ranking 19th in scoring chances allowed (27.7) and 16th in high-danger chances allowed (11), according to Natural Stat Trick. High-danger chances are those with the best odds of turning into a goal, based on shot type, shot location and odd-man rush situations. From October through mid-January, the Penguins allowed the fourth-fewest shots per 60 (28.6), and ranked second in scoring chances (22.8) and third in high-danger chances allowed (9.1). The occasional defense lapses haven't hurt the Metropolitan Division-leading Penguins, and they may be resolved with a functional fourth line. But this a trend worth watching as the playoffs approach.
• Murray rebounds: After slumping badly in November and December -- and falling behind Tristan Jarry on the depth chart in the process -- Matt Murray has been steady since the start of 2020. Since January, Murray has a .936 save rate during five-on-five play. That's not elite, but it ranks 12th out of 49 goalies who have logged 300+ minutes at even strength over that time frame. With the defense slipping in front of him, Murray has seen the 14th-highest rate of odd-man rush attempts against (1.8) since the start of January. But he has shrugged off most of those prime scoring chances, posting the best high-danger save rate (.930) during the New Year. Murray faltered earlier this season, but he has at least played his way back into a time-share with Jarry.
PIRATES
• Dyson's dicey bat: Ben Cherington didn't sign longtime Pirate killer Billy Hamilton, but he did bring in someone with an identical skill set in Jarrod Dyson. The 35-year-old, who likely becomes the team's starting center fielder, delivers serious baserunning and defensive value. Last year with the Diamondbacks, Dyson swiped 30 bases in 34 attempts (88 percent success rate, compared to the 73 percent MLB average) and took an extra base on 58 percent of opportunities (41 percent league average). Dyson's baserunning was worth about +9 runs more than an average player, according to Fangraphs. He also saved +13 runs compared to an average defensive outfielder in 2019 while playing mostly center field, with some time in both corners as well. But the bat? It's so bad that it wipes out most of his value. His park-adjusted batting line was 31 percent worse than the overall MLB average last year--and that was actually an improvement over 2018 (52 percent below average). Dyson has the sixth-worst adjusted batting line among players with 600+ plate appearances over the past year. By signing the likes of Dyson, Luke Maile, JT Riddle and JR Murphy, the Pirates are doing everything they can to boost their run prevention in 2020 -- hitting be damned.
• Williams vs. lefties: In 2018, Trevor Williams was one of the most pleasant surprises in the majors. He posted a park and league-adjusted ERA that was 26 percent better than the average MLB pitcher. Last year, Williams was pummeled (his adjusted ERA was 21 percent worse than average, which was the sixth-worst mark among all pitchers who tossed at least 120 innings in 2019). A major difference between Williams in '18 and '19 was his performance versus left-handed batters. During his breakout season, the righty starter allowed a measly .637 on-base-plus slugging percentage (OPS) to lefty hitters. That was the 13th-best OPS allowed by a righty pitcher against lefties in 2018 (minimum 200 at-bats). This past year, Williams was crushed for a .952 OPS versus lefties. That was the third-worst mark among all right-handed pitchers meeting the same criteria, ranking ahead of only Jordan Zimmermann (.990) and Jorge Lopez (.980). Digging deeper, Williams gave up a .512 slugging percentage to lefties off his fastball and a .557 mark off his changeup. In 2018, lefties slugged .277 off his fastball and .347 off his changeup, according to MLB Statcast.
• Santana returns: The 2019 Pirates had one of the game's worst bullpens by almost any measure. Forced to use a never ending procession of DuRapaus and Neverauskas', Pittsburgh ranked 21st in the majors in relief fielding independent ERA (FIP, at 4.80) and 25th in Wins Above Replacement (WAR, at 0.6). FIP is a more accurate measure of performance that estimates ERA based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. WAR measures a pitcher's value compared to a replacement-level--or DuRapau level--player. Edgar Santana, set to return in 2020 following Tommy John surgery, should help. Back in '18, Santana had a 3.58 FIP out of the 'pen and compiled 0.7 WAR. He hasn't missed many bats, despite mid-90s velocity (7.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2018), but he also refuses to walk anyone (1.6 walks per nine) and he keeps the ball in the park (1 HR/9). If he's healthy, Santana could pitch higher-leverage innings in 2020.
STEELERS
• Old QB excellence: As 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger rehabs from a career-threatening elbow injury, let's take a look at what history tells us about seasoned quarterbacks. During the post-merger era (1970-present), there have been 41 seasons when a quarterback who was age 38 or older started at least eight games. If you're optimistic, more than half of those seasons (24) have come during the new millennium. The best of the bunch, in terms of adjusted passer rating, were Drew Brees (34 percent above the overall NFL average in both 2018-19) and Tom Brady (33 percent above average in 2016). The worst seasons include those authored by Peyton Manning (32 percent below average in 2015), Ken Stabler (17 percent below average in 1983) and Brett Favre (16 percent below average in 2010). The median passer rating among the group (meaning half are above that mark and half are below) is 106--just a tick above average. If you stick around the league this long, you're extremely accomplished. But excelling at such an advanced age--never mind coming off a severe injury--is exceptionally rare.
• Foster falters: Don't be surprised if the longest-tenured Steeler this side of Roethlisberger is a cap casualty this offseason. Left guard Ramon Foster is coming off one of his least productive seasons of his 11-year career. Foster allowed four sacks in 2019, according to Pro Football Focus, compared to just one allowed in 2018. And when the Steelers ran in his direction, the results were middling. Pittsburgh ranked 23rd in adjusted yards gained on rushes that were directed up the middle in 2019, and 26th on rushes to the left, per Football Outsiders. It can be difficult to evaluate an O-lineman's individual performance--particularly in a year when the offense around him was abysmal. But, considering that Foster is now 34 years old and carries a $5.75 million cap hit in 2020, he isn't likely to get the benefit of the doubt.
• A little help? Mason Rudolph's first foray as an NFL starter was hardly great--his adjusted passer rating was 13 percent worse than the league average, his completion rate was eight percent below average and throws more than ten yards past the line of scrimmage were often disastrous. But it's also true that his receivers didn't exactly have his back. Steelers receivers dropped 5.9 percent of passes thrown by Rudolph. That tied him with Brady for the seventh-highest drop rate for all qualified NFL quarterbacks in 2019. Jaylen Samuels (8.8 percent drop rate), JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson (6.5 percent) were the biggest culprits--aside from the infamously butter-fingered Donte Moncrief (26.7 percent).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Let that sink in: As we move on from the Ray Searage era and see how the Pirates' philosophy evolves under new pitching coach Oscar Marin, let's take stock of how radically the game has changed in recent years. During the Pirates' (relative) glory days, teams pounded the bottom of the strike zone with sinkers. League-wide, pitchers threw a sinker 21.6 percent of the time in 2013, according to Fangraphs. By 2019--when hitters were emphasizing power and launching low-zone pitches into orbit--that sinker rate fell to 14.7 percent. In place of sinkers, pitchers are throwing more sliders (13.9 percent in 2013, 18.6 percent last year). That makes plenty of sense when you consider that MLB hitters slugged .479 off sinkers last season, but just .380 off sliders, per MLB Statcast.
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