For most of the 2019-20 season, the Penguins have been astoundingly resilient. Amid myriad injuries to superstars and solid role players, the team even managed to (briefly) sit atop the hyper-competitive Metropolitan Division. But the Penguins recently hit a Pittsburgh-sized pot hole in the form of a six-game losing streak, their longest since the 2011-12 season.
It's hardly time to freak out--they have a 90 percent chance of extending their playoff streak to 14 consecutive seasons, according to Moneypuck.com--but some cracks were showing. And their deficiencies were most glaring on the blue line. That's why the returns of Brian Dumoulin and John Marino couldn't have come at a better time.
With Dumoulin (lacerated tendons in his left ankle) and Marino (broken cheekbone) both out of the lineup, Mike Sullivan resorted to using some less-than-optimal defensive pairings. With those two mobile, two-way players missing, one of the game's best defensemen (Kris Letang) was dragged down. And another patched-together duo -- Marcus Pettersson and Justin Schultz -- was getting stretched.
When Letang takes the ice with Dumoulin, the Penguins dominate puck possession, scoring chances and scoring. But, with his normal partner out of commission, Letang was frequently paired with Jack Johnson. That duo has been disastrous:
Dumoulin has the passing skills and mobility to spring the offensively gifted Letang, and the recovery speed to prevent frequent odd-man rushes and prime scoring chances when Letang freelances too much. Johnson does not. With Letang and Johnson skating at even strength, the Penguins are chasing the puck and leaving Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray out to dry.
The difference might be most glaring when you look at high-danger scoring chances. These are the prime opportunities to bury the puck in the net, factoring in items like shot type, shot location and odd-man rushes. In more than 500 minutes with Letang and Johnson on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins are getting just 9.1 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Letang-Dumoulin pairing has generated 11.6 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Letang and Johnson allow a whopping 13.1 high-danger chances per 60, compared to just 8.7 with Letang and Dumoulin out there together.
Losing two of the Penguins' best defenders also had a ripple effect on Schultz and Pettersson, who took on more ice time. During Marino's absence, Schultz logged an average of 16 minutes, 56 seconds of five-on-five ice time. That was up from 16:20 prior to Marino's injury. Pettersson was on the ice 17 minutes, 45 seconds per game at even strength during Marino's absence--up from 16:38 when Marino was in the lineup
Schultz and Pettersson performed respectably (the Penguins are generating 53.2 percent of shots, 52.9 percent of scoring chances and 50 percent of goals at even strength with those two skating since early February), but they have given up more high-danger scoring chances (11.1 per 60 minutes) than they have generated (10.7) in recent weeks. Before Marino got hurt and the minutes started piling up, Schultz and Pettersson allowed 9.5 high-danger chances and generated 12 per 60 minutes. You also worry about that extra wear and tear as the playoffs approach.
With the blue line at full strength, Letang and Dumoulin are reunited. On Tuesday versus the Senators, Pettersson was paired with Marino, and that duo has been solid (they have about a 50 percent share of total shots, scoring chances and goals when skating together at even strength). Johnson, meanwhile, gets fewer minutes on a line with Schultz. Those two have been the Penguins' least effective defensemen this season, and they haven't exactly shined together (45.1 percent shot share, 45.2 percent of scoring chances and just 20 percent of goals in limited time). You could easily make the case for scratching Johnson in favor of Juuso Riikola. But bare minimum, fewer minutes for Johnson will be a positive for the Penguins.
Just how well were Dumoulin and Marino playing prior to their injuries? Among defensemen who have skated at least 350 minutes during five-on-five play, Dumoulin has the third-best shots allowed rate (25.4 per 60 minutes) in the NHL. Marino (27.9) cracks the top 30. Dumoulin also ranks third in scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes (20.6) and Marino (23.1) again clears the top 30. These guys are shutdown defenders, and have enough offensive game to drive puck possession.
Getting Dumoulin and Marino back adds two of the game's better defenders to the lineup and, most importantly, it ends the Letang-Johnson experiment. Riikola and Chad Ruhwedel become overqualified seventh and eighth defensemen who will almost assuredly be called upon again when injury strikes, or if Sullivan pulls the plug on Johnson. The Penguins' blue line blues, much like their losing streak, look like a thing of the past.
MORE PENGUINS
• Zucker-Crosby connection: It’s too early to make any sweeping judgments about the pairing, but how well has Jason Zucker fit in as Sidney Crosby’s new top-line winger? With Zucker and Crosby skating together at even strength, the Penguins are generating 52.1 percent of the game’s total shots, 48.7 percent of scoring chances and 53.9 percent of goals scored. For comparison’s sake, the Penguins are cranking out 53.2 percent of shots, 51.4 percent of scoring chances and 48.8 percent of goals when Crosby has skated without Zucker during five-on-five play. These two haven't gelled just yet, but the early returns are decent.
• Four decades of hockey: Trade deadline acquisition Patrick Marleau is no longer the near-point-per-game player that he was during his peak. But the man drafted second overall back in 1997 at the Igloo can still skate and bury an occasional goal. As Marleau chases an elusive Stanley Cup, he's also climbing the NHL's all-time games played list. With 1,719 regular-season games at hockey's highest level, Marleau trails only Ron Francis (1,731), Jaromir Jagr (1,733), Mark Messier (1,756) and Gordie Howe (1,767). He's also just the sixth Penguins skater to take the ice at age 40 or older, joining Mario Lemieux, Gary Roberts, Matt Cullen, Tim Horton and Ken Schinkel.
PIRATES
• Polanco's expanded zone: The Pirates are clearly counting on Gregory Polanco to prop up an offense that has serious power limitations outside of Josh Bell. For Polanco to deliver, he'll need to make better strike-zone decisions now that he's further removed from a shoulder injury that affected all aspects of his game last season. He chased 29.2 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2019, well above his 24.4 percent rate during his breakout 2018 campaign and above the 28.2 percent MLB average (per MLB Statcast). In particular, he must show more restraint versus breaking and off-speed pitches. Polanco chased 31.5 percent of breaking balls in '19, up from 25 percent in '18. His offspeed chase rate spiked to 45.5 percent from 32 percent the previous year. His whiff rate on breaking stuff increased from 30.9 percent to 38.9 percent, and his came up empty on more offspeed pitches, too (38.3 percent in '19, compared to 27.5 percent in '18). It will be hard for Polanco to re-discover his power if he's down in the count or making weak contact on off-the-plate pitches.
• Crick’s heat: Kyle Crick endured a brutal 2019 season. He continued to miss bats (11.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), but he lost control of the strike zone (6.4 walks per nine, up from 3.4 in 2018) and became homer-prone (1.8 HR/9, compared to 0.45 the previous year). To avoid falling into middle-relief purgatory, Crick will have to fix what ailed his mid-90s fastball. In 2018, he surrendered one home run off a fastball and limited batters to a .316 slugging percentage, according to MLB Statcast. Last year, opponents went yard five times off Crick’s fastballs while slugging .506. Batters chased Crick's fastball outside of the strike zone less often (29.3 percent in '18, 23 percent in '19) and, when he did put his heat in the zone, his location suffered. Crick threw his fastball belt-high about 24 percent of the time last year, compared to about 20 percent in '18. When he threw a belt-high fastball, batters posted a .676 slugging percentage. The slider is world-class, but even a reliever (not named Mariano Rivera) is going to be hard-pressed to survive with one pitch.
• Base running breakdown: The Pirates' new coaching staff has talked about the importance of smart, aggressive base running for the 2020 club. There's plenty of room for improvement on that front. Last year, the Pirates' base running cost them about five runs compared to an average team, according to Fangraphs' Base Running Runs (BsR) stat. BsR factors in stolen bases, caught stealings, taking extra bases when possible and avoiding outs. Pittsburgh ranked 20th in BsR last year. The Pirates took an extra base 42 percent of the time--right around the 41 percent MLB average--but they made the second-most outs on the bases (60) among all teams. Only the Cubs ran into more outs (64). The Pirates traded their best base runner (Starling Marte, who had +3.4 BsR in 2019) while bringing in another burner (Jarrod Dyson, +8.9 BsR last year). Among other players who figure to get significant playing time this season, only Bryan Reynolds, Cole Tucker (+0.7 BsR apiece) and Polanco (+0.2) ranked above average. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Bell (-5 BsR) and Colin Moran (-3.4) are plodding base runners.
STEELERS
• Epic passing problems: Why is a fan base collectively breaking down video of a bearded man throwing a Nerf ball? That's how bad the passing game became last year with Ben Roethlisberger on the shelf. Pittsburgh's passing "attack" was -18.3 percent worse than an average NFL offense in 2019 on a per-play basis, according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) stat. DVOA accounts for the down, distance, score and quality of opponent. Only the Jets (-21.9 percent below average) and Panthers (-20.9) had worse passing games last year. In 2018, the Steelers were +25.5 percent above average when passing the ball, which ranked eighth in the NFL. The last time Pittsburgh featured a worse passing game was 1987, when they were -41.8 percent below average on a per-play basis.
• Hargrave's payday: A former third-rounder out of an FCS school, Javon Hargrave turned out to be an outstanding middle-round pick. He has played so well that he may well price himself out of Pittsburgh. The Spotrac website estimates NFL players' market value based on their age, contract status and statistical production. Hargrave's market value is estimated at $14.7 million. Even if you think that's too high, teams are going to bid for a guy who has the 14th-most sacks among defensive tackles over the past two seasons (10.5) and a guy who ranked as the eighth best interior defender in the NFL in 2019 according to Pro Football Focus' grading scale, which accounts for pass-rushing and run-stuffing ability.
• Watt through three: Speaking of massive pay days, T.J. Watt will soon earn a stratospheric one for his All Pro-level production. How good has Watt been during his early NFL tenure? He has the 11th-most sacks in NFL history through his first three seasons (34.5) since that stat became official in 1982, the sixth-most quarterback hits (70) and the third-most forced fumbles (15). Last year, Watt ranked as the best value among all outside linebackers when comparing his production to his cap hit ($2.53 million). It wouldn't be a shock to see that salary increase nine or ten-fold in the near future. Three outside 'backers--Khalil Mack, Von Miller and Chandler Jones--all carry cap hits above $21 million.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Dead Time Era: Despite trying a variety of pace-of-play initiatives in recent years, the average time of an MLB game climbed to an all-time high of three hours, ten minutes in 2019. There are plenty of reasons why the average baseball game is approaching the run times of Godfather movies, but here's one: there's more down time between pitches than ever before. An average of 22 seconds elapsed between pitches a decade ago, according to Fangraphs. By 2019, that number climbed to an all-time high of 24.9 seconds. On the pitching side, the biggest culprits in 2019 were Kenley Jansen (31.6 seconds between pitches), Emilio Pagan (31.4 seconds) and Cory Gearrin (30.7 seconds). All three are relievers, which highlights another part of this trend. With teams making more calls to the bullpen these days, the game is slowed down not just by the pitching change, but also because relievers take more time between pitches (25.7 seconds) than starting pitchers (24.4 seconds).
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Have a question? Post it in comments below!
