The are plenty of reasons why the Penguins' once-promising Stanley Cup odds have quickly become murkier than the Monongahela River after a rainstorm. You don't drop eight out of 11 games while getting outscored by a combined 42 to 28 through bad puck luck alone. But a primary reason is a nearly pulseless power play unit. With a man (or two!) advantage, Pittsburgh has converted at a 11.9 percent clip during a wretched stretch of play that started against the Maple Leafs on February 20.
However, unlike some of the other problems that have knocked the Penguins from atop the Metropolitan Division to a more perilous third place, the power play has been off all year. The team is converting just 19.9 percent of the time on the season, which ranks 16th in the NHL. This, from a group that cashed in 24.6 percent of the time in 2018-19 (fifth in the league) and a franchise and league-best 26.2 percent in 2017-18. Here are a gloveful of reasons why the typically stellar Penguins PP is failing to rack up goals in 2019-20.
• They're not pulling the trigger enough. Yes, shoot the puck! is the most common, and overly simplistic, refrain among hockey fans. But there's some truth to it here. Pittsburgh is taking about 50.5 shots per 60 minutes of power play time this season, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's 21st in the league. For comparison's sake, the Pens took 51.3 shots per 60 on the PP in 2018-19 and 56.8 per 60 during their historically great '17-18 season. The team's to megastars have been particularly reticent, with Sidney Crosby taking an average of just 7.7 shots per 60 minutes of PP time (down from 10.6 in 2018-19) and Evgeni Malkin taking 14.7 per nine (15.5 last year).
• They're not converting enough prime scoring chances. The Penguins rank sixth in the league in generating scoring chances while on the power play (54.3 per 60 minutes). Pittsburgh placed 12th in chances last year (49.4), and fourth back in 2017-18 (59.2). But they're not cashing in on as many of those chances. The Penguins have notched a goal on just 18.6 percent of shots that qualify as scoring chances on the power play this year, which is 13th in the NHL and down from 21.8 percent in 2018-19 (fourth in the league) and 22 percent in 2017-18 (also fourth). Is it bad luck, or a lack of finish?
• They're careless with the puck at times. Malkin and Kris Letang, in particular, are culprits here. While Geno has generally made better puck decisions during five-on-five situations, that hasn't extended to the power play. He's committing 5.2 giveaways per 60 minutes on the PP this year, up from 3.4 in 2018-19. Letang's giveaway rate has climbed to 4.0 per 60 minutes from 2.5 last year. With more turnovers from key members of the unit ...
• They're serving up prime scoring chances for the opposition. The Penguins have given up the sixth-highest rate of scoring chances against while on the power play (8.6). This was a problem last year, too (they gave up 9.2 per nine, sixth-most in the league) and even in '17-18 (a league-worst 10.6). Luckily, Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray have done a good job of bailing out their teammates when they give up juicy shots while holding the man advantage (Penguins goalies have the ninth-best scoring chance save percentage while their team is on the power play this year). But you can't score if you're chasing the puck, and too often, that's exactly what Pittsburgh is doing.
• They really miss Jake Guentzel. Losing Phil Kessel via trade this past offseason was one thing. But one Guentzel went crashing into the boards in late January, the team's power play suffered another major blow. Among Penguins players who have received at least 100 minutes of PP time since the start of the '18-19 campaign, Guentzel ranks third in goals per 60, and second among guys still on the squad.
Guentzel has buried 24 percent of his power play shots over that time, third-best behind Rust (33.3) and Crosby (24.6). He has created 14.2 individual scoring chances per 60, ranking behind only Patric Hornqvist. Guentzel was another net-front presence on the PP, and his Jedi-like tip-ins and deflections are sorely missed.
The Penguins aren't converting near enough on the PP, and they'are also not getting near as many opportunities as they did just a few seasons ago. The team places 15th in power play opportunities in 2019-20, after ranking 21st in '18-19 and eighth in '17-18. From reluctant shooting to questionable puck management to a key injury, there are a number of reasons why this PP has been mediocre. That will have to change if the Penguins have higher aspirations than just sweating out securing a playoff spot.
MORE PENGUINS
• Top line producing: So far, so good for the Penguins' newly-constructed first line of Jason Zucker, Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary. With those three skating at even strength, the Penguins have taken 55 percent of the game's total shots, 53.8 percent of scoring chances and 50 percent of goals scored, according to Natural Stat Trick. Of course, Sheary getting the Crosby bump is nothing new. During his first stint with the Penguins from 2015-16 through 2017-18, Sheary a higher shot share (54 percent) and goals-for rate (59.3 percent) when playing with Sid than without (51.9 percent of shots, 52.4 percent of goals).
• Long odds, long career: Patric Hornqvist has turned in a very Hornqvistian season--which is to say, he's crashing the net, infuriating goalies and nearing 20 goals. The last pick in the 2005 draft has also turned in one of the most impressive careers for a player drafted in the seventh round. Hockey-Reference has a metric called Point Shares (PS), which measures a player's offensive and defensive contributions in terms of points added to his team's total in the standings. With 59.9 PS, Hornqvist ranks behind only Lyle Odelein (60.4), Pavel Kubina (64.1), Rabim Vrbata (69.1), Robert Lange (70.3), Andrew Brunette (73.4), Cliff Ronning (78.1), Joe Pavelski (98), Henrik Zetterberg (109.3) and Doug Gilmour (118.6) among former seventh-rounders.
PIRATES
• Frazier's lumber: Considering he was once viewed as a bat-first prospect without a true defensive home, it's ironic that Adam Frazier has developed into a Gold Glove candidate at second base who's looking to bounce back at the plate. In 2018, Frazier's offensive production was about 16 percent better than the overall MLB average once adjusting for park and league factors. Last year, he was three percent below average. What changed? During his breakout 2018 campaign, Frazier slugged .541 off breaking balls and .489 against off-speed pitches, according to MLB Statcast. For comparison's sake, the MLB averages are .380 for breaking stuff and .384 for off-speed offerings. Last year, Frazier slugged just .357 versus breaking balls and .351 against off-speed pitches. It's possible that playing through injuries--including a broken finger and a separated shoulder--took a toll on his offense. If Frazier can combine his quality second base D with the kind of bat he demonstrated in '18, that's a highly valuable player.
• Short end of the shift: Defensive shifting has become a staple of the modern game. Back in 2011, teams deployed a shift during 2,974 at-bats, according to Fangraphs. Last year, that total climbed all the way to 53,707. No Pirates hitter was affected more in 2019 than Gregory Polanco. Teams shifted against Polanco 51.2 percent of the time (above the 41.9 percent average for lefty batters, per MLB Statcast). His Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)--an advanced stat that measures total hitting production by placing a run value on every offensive event--was just .280 when teams shifted against him. That ranked 129th out of 156 left-handed hitters who were shifted against in at least 50 at-bats in 2019. When teams didn't shift against Polanco, his wOBA was .332. Unless Polanco proves he can beat the shift by finding holes or clearing the fence altogether, that shift percentage may rise even further in 2020.
• Countering Reynolds: As Bryan Reynolds looks to prove that his superb 2019 rookie season was the start of a long and fruitful career, he should expect pitchers to adjust their approach against him. Reynolds saw fastballs 55.9 percent of the time last year, and he gobbled up those pitches like Pac Man. The switch-hitter put fastballs in play at an average of 92.9 mph, which was well above the 89.2 mph MLB average and was one of the 25 highest exit velocities among MLB batters. Against other pitch types, his performance was more modest. Reynolds put breaking balls in play at an average of 86.3 mph (below the 86.8 MLB average) and off-speed pitches at 81.3 mph (85.7 mph average). In the cat-and-mouse game that is MLB, Reynolds will likely have to prove he can make loud contact against non-fastballs in 2020.
STEELERS
• Sutton ascends: Cameron Sutton was one of the Steelers' most improved players in 2019--so much so that it might spell the end of restricted free agent Mike Hilton's time in Pittsburgh. In limited time (25 percent of the Steelers' total defensive snaps), Sutton allowed just a 56 percent completion rate and a 54.1 passer rating when targeted in coverage, according to Pro Football-Reference. In 2018, by contrast, Sutton surrendered a 69 percent completion rate and a 122.3 passer rating. Hilton was no slouch--he allowed a 54.5 percent completion rate and an 84.8 passer rating last year while again blitzing and tackling effectively--but the Steelers could choose to give Sutton more snaps next year, let Hilton go elsewhere and save some money against the cap.
• Burns busts: In the span of a couple of seasons, Artie Burns went from a serviceable starting cornerback to a frequently burned backup to a part-time special teams player. As his Steelers tenure reaches an end, let's take stock of where Burns ranks among 2016 first-round draft picks (Burns went 25th overall that year) and first-round cornerbacks overall. Pro Football-Reference tracks a stat called Approximate Value (AV), which attempts to gauge a player's overall value across eras and across positions on the field. Burns has compiled 15 AV during his NFL career, which ranks tied for 19th among first-round picks from 2016. The average career AV for 2016 first-rounders is 22.5. Among all cornerbacks taken in the first round of the draft since 2000, Burns ranks 44th out of 80 players in AV during his first four NFL seasons. The average AV among that group during their first four years is just 18.5. Burns ended up being a busted pick, but he's hardly alone.
• Big play James: James Washington is still refining his game, as evidenced by his 55 percent catch rate (113th among all NFL receivers who were targeted at least 50 times last year) and his 6.3 percent drop rate (117th among qualified receivers). But when he did haul in a pass, it was often game-altering. Washington ranked tenth among all receivers in yards per reception (16.7, up from 13.6 as a rookie) and he ranked 20th among receivers in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) stat. DVOA measures a player's per-play value compared to an average player at his position while accounting for the game situation (down, distance, score) and quality of opponent. Washington was +12.7 percent better than an average NFL receiver last year, a marked improvement from -25.1 percent below average in 2018. Washington is inconsistent, but he's shown some home run-hitting potential.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Cup odds: If you're inclined to put a wager on who's taking home the Stanley Cup this year, going with an Eastern Conference club looks like a smart bet. According to the Moneypuck.com website, the Eastern Conference accounts for four of the six teams with the best odds of hoisting Lord Stanley: the Flyers (13.6 percent), Capitals (9.5), Lightning (8.5) and Bruins (6.3). Fans won't be happy with the Penguins' 1.8 percent odds, which ranks 16th in the NHL.
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