The expansion draft that will stock the new NHL franchise in Seattle with players is still more than a year away, so it's understandable that Jim Rutherford doesn't know precisely who the Penguins will protect -- or, more to the point, expose -- in it.
After all, there will be trades between now and then. Some free agents will join the organization, others will depart. Contracts now in effect will be replaced, or allowed to expire.
"You can't get too far ahead of yourself," Rutherford said. "Because there's a lot of time between now and then (and) with not knowing who your (protected) players are going to be. We have another season."
There is, however, at least one thing of which he is certain: The Penguins will do everything possible to avoid a situation like the one they were in three years ago, when Vegas constructed most of its roster via a similar draft.
They ended up not only losing goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to the Golden Knights, but bribing Vegas with a second-round draft choice to make sure it claimed him.
It's not that the Penguins were unhappy with Fleury, but his contract, which was worth $5.75 million per season, was a strain on their efforts to stay under the salary-cap ceiling and Matt Murray, who is nine years younger, had supplanted Fleury as the franchise's go-to goalie.
"I certainly hope we're not in a position to do what we had to do last time," Rutherford said. "Personally, it wasn't comfortable, and team-wise, it wasn't comfortable. The fact that, because of the cap, with Marc-Andre's contract, we had to make sure that was the contract that went out, and we paid for that. But we kept a goalie who was making $2 million less."
Of Fleury, Rutherford added, "That was a very difficult decision, because we all love the guy and he had a great career in Pittsburgh. But those are the things that happen when you have these kinds of drafts. ... But I don't believe we'll be in that position for this next draft."
Fleury had a no-movement clause in his contract and could have vetoed being offered to Vegas, but agreed to go, at least in part because he still wanted to be a No. 1 goalie and Murray seemed to have a firm grip on that role with the Penguins.
Rutherford said the Penguins have been confident that salary-cap considerations would not be a factor in who they protect next year, but acknowledged that the current league shutdown could have an impact on those decisions because it's impossible to predict how it will affect the cap ceiling in the future.
"If we were tracking to where we were prior to the shutdown, we would have been in good shape, cap-wise," he said. "But I don't know where that's all going."
The rules for the draft that will provide players to Seattle are the same as those in effect in 2017.
Seattle will pick one player each from 30 NHL clubs (Vegas does not have to lose a player in this draft) and teams can choose between two protection formats: Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters (in any combination of forwards and defensemen) and one goalie.
The Penguins opted for the latter three years ago and Rutherford said "I would suspect" they'll take the same approach in 2021, although that obviously is far from certain at this point.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, Justin Schultz and Murray were on their protected list in 2017.
First- and second-year pros and unsigned draft choices do not have to be protected.
Because players with no-movement clauses in their contracts cannot be made available to Seattle, Crosby, Malkin and Letang presumably will be on the Penguins' protected list, although Letang's modified no-trade clause means he could be sent to any of 18 teams before the list is finalized. (Crosby and Malkin have total no-trade clauses, and thus would have to approve any deal.)
In addition to exposing at least one goalie who is under contract for the 2021-22 season, teams must make available one defenseman under contract for that season who appeared in 40 or more games in the previous season or at least 70 in the previous two, as well as two forwards who meet the same criteria as the defenseman.
Rutherford confirmed that the expansion draft will be considered when the Penguins are making personnel moves until their protected list is submitted.
"We know the guidelines," he said. "We know that we will have the proper number of players available by the expansion guidelines. Everything we do, we're conscious of the expansion draft coming. But just to set a plan out that we're going to know exactly who we'll protect and what players would be available, it's too early to do that."
Vegas was a phenomenon during its inaugural season, advancing to the Stanley Cup final. Replicating the Golden Knights' success probably isn't a realistic objective for Ron Francis, the former Penguins center and Rutherford protege who is GM in Seattle, but Rutherford said Francis should be able to construct a competitive team.
Especially if salary-cap constraints caused by reduced revenues stemming from the NHL shutdown forces teams to expose players they otherwise would have protected.
"There will certainly be higher expectations because of (Vegas' success), but it's too early to say (if Seattle can match)," Rutherford said. "If, for whatever reason, the cap didn't keep going up, he'll be in a position to get some better players."
Maybe even a goaltender with a pedigree like Fleury's.