Stumpf's 10 Thoughts: Why'd it take so long?

Major League Baseball and the players association do not have a deal in place for the 2020 season, but for the first time in quite a while, there is a sense of optimism that it can get done.

Well, it certainly looks better than it did earlier this week, where the union more or less gave up negotiating and Rob Manfred said he did not feel confident that there would be a season.

There are still roadblocks that need to be cleared, but the two biggest issues are taken care of. Players will get full prorated pay, and in exchange, they will waive the right to file a billion-dollar grievance that the league negotiated in bad faith. All that's left is the number of games -- and at this point, is the league really going to risk that grievance over a couple more games -- and getting both sides to agree to the final terms and sign on the line.

After a month and a half of negotiating, the winning run as on third base. But what took so long for us to get to this point?

Did it really take Manfred embarrassing himself on TV Monday, contradicting his statement from a week earlier guaranteeing a season, to spark the change?

During that same interview with ESPN Monday, Manfred said the two sides had not negotiated in over a week. Offers were exchanged during that time, but they were quickly rejected. It wasn't until after that interview that Manfred reached out to union executive director Tony Clark and fly to Arizona for a private meeting. That could have happened a month ago.

The league made several offers to the union, but this is the first for full prorated salaries. While the March agreement had a clause to renegotiate if it became clear fans would not be able to attend, the players always had the leverage here. If Manfred needed to mandate a season, they would get pro rata.

The owners really only had three options. One: Can the season. Two: Defer money, which could potentially hurt them in 2022 if there is a player strike and no revenue coming in again. Players would have a huge advantage in negotiations.

And Three: Try to run out the clock and shorten the season, thus lowering costs. The real money is going to be postseason games, so the fewer regular season ones they can play, the better the bottom line looks. It was clear players weren't going to take another pay cut, so they inched their max offer a little closer to kill time. To hedge their bet, they didn't increase the guaranteed money beyond what players would receive under a 50-game Manfred season.

It may have ultimately saved some money, but that might not be worth the damage between the league's relationship with the players, and its fans.

• Even if a deal is a reached, that doesn't mean the upcoming collective bargaining agreement talks are going to be pleasant. This was the most heated exchange owners and players have had in years, and it really stemmed from just one issue: How much should each player receive of their prorated salary? It was a matter of a couple of hundred of millions of dollars. The union is going to address stagnant player pay, the luxury tax, teams tanking and many more issues come the end of the 2021 season. These matters will be worth billions and will impact baseball's economic structure for years to come.

Before the shutdown, there was a general feeling that there could be a strike after the CBA expired anyway. If that was the case, these negotiations did not help.



• The Pirates could have a lot riding on this short season. Cherington inherited a team that finished in last place a year ago, but they were in the thick of things until the All-Star break. Instead of tearing the roster down, they revamped just the coaching instead. The players were buying into the new philosophies too, so while it may not have been the most talented roster in the National League, they weren't going to be a pushover.

What happens if the Pirates play well in this shortened season? Would Cherington try to add to his Major-League core? Would have the resources to add after the lost year? What happens if the Pirates struggle? Does he then have to try to trade away some of his veteran players like Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams, or does he give them the opportunity he planned to give them in 2020? As second year arbitration players, they will start to become pricier. How much would that impact what the Pirates could potentially get back in a trade?

The Pirates were 29-31 through the first 60 games of last season, meaning they were in the thick of things for one of those final expanded wildcard spots. They went 23-37 in their final 60 games. In both cases, their record more or less reflected the quality of their play in those stretches. The next couple years of Pirates baseball could hinge on one or two really good, or bad, weeks.

• It was a poorly kept secret that the designated hitter was coming to the National League in 2020, but with this proposal including implementing it in 2021 signals that the DH is here to stay.

A while back, I wrote that a designated hitter would probably help the Pirates' defense just as much as their offense, as it would allow someone like Colin Moran or Bell just worry about hitting while giving a minor-league gold glover, like Ke'Bryan Hayes or Will Craig, a spot in the lineup. With expanded rosters, that trade makes even more sense for 2020.

• A few hours before the union threw its hands up in the air and said, "forget it," Saturday, news broke that MLB and Turner Sports had reached a billion-dollar extension to broadcast playoff games. That money won't kick in until 2022, so it's not like MLB is hoarding a last second windfall it could give to the players. Regardless, the news was broken at a less than ideal time.

If MLB fails to reach an agreement, they will not be able to expand the playoffs until 2022 at the soonest, and it will leave hundreds of millions of dollars in extra playoff money on the table. That alone could pay most, if not all, of a couple extra weeks of player salaries this year, even at full pro rata. Not to mention that if they have a system established in 2020 an 2021, they would have a good basis for continuing it as part of the next CBA. MLB already allows the fewest amount of its teams into the postseason out of the four major sports. This could put them on a more even scale with the NBA and NHL.

• To shift the conversation a bit to what is happening elsewhere in baseball, the undrafted free agent period opened up Sunday, and the Pirates have been fairly quiet so far, signing just one player: right-handed pitcher Parker Brahms. Brahams was drafted by the Dodgers last year, and after a strong senior season, it seems reasonable to think he could have gone somewhere between the 15th-20th rounds. It's a decent pickup, but there has not been much quantity to speak of so far.

So far, the clear winners of the post-draft market are the Royals, Astros and Reds. Those three teams promised to pay their minor-league players through at least August, without any cuts. It's clear the players signing with them noticed and appreciated that.

While the Pirates guaranteed to pay the stipend and provide health benefits to all of their minor-leaguers, including the 39 who were recently cut, through the end of June, it's fair to wonder if those recent cuts are scaring players away now. All of these players have 30 different clubs to choose between, and there is a limit on how much they can earn. Right now, it's about reputation and trying to convince players that the Pirates organization is the best fit for them. It's going to be a long recruiting process, but it's off to a slow start.

• Traditionally, teams sign their top draft picks very close to the deadline, sometimes not until the last hour, so it's interesting that the Pirates have already signed second-rounder Jared Jones.

Terms of the deal are not yet known, and while he won't be the highest-paid player in this class, it originally looked like he would be the most difficult player to sign. He was committed to play for Texas, and while his draft slot still carried a $1.69 million, it didn't look like that would be enough to convince him to forgo college. After all, he could have potentially made millions more in a couple years if he went to college, and it wouldn't be deferred like this year's bonuses are. For him to be the first player signed, they must already feel very confident about the money they'll spend on their other picks, or he signed for a smaller overslot amount than some high schoolers taken in his spot would.

The abbreviated draft is likely one of the main reasons why the Pirates aren't waiting until the deadline to sign their picks. It won't be just five rounds again, but it will never be 40 rounds again, either. Will these shorter drafts signal a change in how teams approach contract negotiations?

• The Pirates are still hoping to get some sort of group instruction together --  likely in an extended spring training format -- for their minor-leaguers in 2020, but the priority was on making sure there is a Major-League season first. It's not known whether or not that extended spring is contingent on there being a Major-League season, but if it isn't, the clock is ticking. The minor-league season usually ends in the beginning of September. As ridiculous as this might sound, making sure players have a full offseason is going to be important. They already lost most of a season. Losing part of another could really hurt a whole generation of players.

• Is it really a forgone conclusion that owners really want a salary cap as part of the next CBA? Under the current system, owners have an excuse not to go over the luxury tax too often or by too much: They would be docked draft picks. It could be argued that spending too much money could put them at a competitive disadvantage in the long run. Also, the luxury tax has increased very slowly. Between 2014-2021, the tax limit was raised from $189 to $210 million, an increase of 11%. From 2014-2019 -- a shorter window of time -- the NFL's salary cap has gone from $133 million to $188.2 million, over 40%, and the NHL has gone from $69 million to $81.5 million, an 18% increase.

Player salaries have been stagnant for five years while league revenues have taken off, meaning they now make less than 50-percent of the league's revenue. The owners have set up a system where they have a soft cap and no floor. While some owners, like Tom Ricketts of the Cubs, have spoken in favor of a cap, and it would benefit small market clubs like the Pirates greatly, on the whole, it seems like it would benefit the players more. Plus, it would only take a handful of owners to shut down any revenue sharing talks. Speaking of which...

• There is a report circulating that there are at least six owners, and as many as eight, who do not want a season to be played. That is significant, as it would only take eight owners to shut down any proposal and officially kill the season. Manfred still needs to get at least 23 owners on board for whatever proposal the league and union ultimately agree to. If that doesn't happens, then this has all been for naught.

Bob Nutting is not one of those six. He is "100%" pushing to play, per a source.

He needs to make his voice heard. Not just for this matter, but over the next few years.

Back in November, when DK and I got to sit down with Nutting during Travis Williams' introduction, he discussed that he needed to speak up more.

"I need to be a more effective advocate for Pittsburgh and the Pirates as we head into labor negotiations," Nutting told us. "I need to be a more effective advocate for small markets as we head in, because the playing field not only is not level, but got worse in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement. We took a significant step back. We need to do that."

This is the time for Nutting to be that advocate for small markets. The time. He has enjoyed nothing but labor peace since he bought his first stake in the franchise. As a result, he has been very willing to go along with whatever the commissioner at the time is willing to do.

Baseball's financial landscape is going to change, regardless of if there is a cap, revenue sharing, a strike or a new CBA. It will impact small market teams greatly. The question is will it be a positive change, or will things continue to get worse.