Analysis: Why 2021 might (finally) be time to find future QB taken on the North Shore (Steelers)

Steelers quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger (7) and Mason Rudolph (2) -- MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

The Patriots' signing of Cam Newton earlier this week likely was the final piece of the puzzle to fall into place in the NFL's offseason quarterback market.

Colin Kaepernick still is out there, but he's been available the past few offseasons and has gone unsigned. And nobody is going to offer him a starting job, so he likely will go unsigned this offseason, as well.

The interesting thing about New England's situation is that Newton, at 31, could be their long-term replacement for Tom Brady, even though he is signed to a one-year, incentive-laden deal. And if that's the case, it would take the Patriots out of the quarterback market for 2021 since they wouldn't likely turn to Jared Stidham and Brian Hoyer.

Which isn't a bad thing for the Steelers.

With Ben Roethlisberger now 38, they'll be in that market, so every team that isn't makes it more likely they could get a talented quarterback in the first round if they so choose.

So, with the smoke having cleared on the current quarterback market, let's take a look at teams that will be comfortable with their quarterback situation in 2021 and teams that won't:



Tier 1 -- Happy with their QB (17)

Bills (Josh Allen), Dolphins (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tua Tagovailoa), Jets (Sam Darnold), Ravens (Lamar Jackson), Bengals (Joe Burrow), Texans (Deshaun Watson), Titans (Ryan Tannehill), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Chargers (Tyrod Taylor, Justin Herbert), Cowboys (Dak Prescott), Giants (Daniel Jones), Eagles (Carson Wentz), Packers (Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love), Vikings (Kirk Cousins), Cardinals (Kyler Murray), Rams (Jared Goff), Seahawks (Russell Wilson)

This group either has an established star, a young player who was drafted early and will be given every chance to prove himself, or a young quarterback who was just drafted. Of the group, the Cowboys and Rams could move out of this group if Prescott can't be signed to a long-term deal or if Goff has a subpar season.

Tier 2 -- Good but aging starter (6)

Steelers (Roethlisberger), Colts (Philip Rivers), Lions (Matthew Stafford), Falcons (Matt Ryan), Saints (Drew Brees), Buccaneers (Brady)

Again, the Steelers could be in the market, though Roethlisberger still will have a year left on his contract. They'll have a pretty good idea after this season if they think Mason Rudolph is a potential starter or long-term backup. Rivers is playing on a one-year deal, so the Colts are not married to him. Stafford and Ryan are talented but getting up in age. The Lions and Falcons have to start thinking about long-term replacements. Brees and Brady both are on the wrong side of 40. They are year-to-year players.

Tier 3 -- QBs at a crossroads (6)

Patriots (Newton), Browns (Baker Mayfield), Raiders (Derek Carr), Bears (Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles), 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo), Redskins (Dwayne Haskins)

These teams could be in the market if things don't work out. It seems weird to see Mayfield on this list given he was selected in the same draft as Allen, Darnold and Jackson, but he is in a situation in which the coaching staff and general manager in place didn't have a hand in drafting him. That's always tenuous. Carr is in a similar spot with the Raiders, and Jon Gruden constantly is in love with a quarterback not on his roster. The Trubisky/Foles pairing is one in which neither might prove to be trustworthy. The 49ers, meanwhile, could easily walk away from Garoppolo after this season if he doesn't play well, even though he had the team in the Super Bowl last season. He's just not a dynamic quarterback, more of a placeholder than he a star. Haskins is the youngest player on this list. Ron Rivera and his staff didn't select Haskins in the first round last season. And he has enough power in Washington that he could easily move on from Haskins if he doesn't like what he sees this season.

Tier 4 -- Placeholders

Jaguars (Gardner Minshew), Panthers (Teddy Bridgewater), Broncos (Drew Lock)

All three of these players could prove to be long-term starters for their respective teams, but there is a minimal investment in each. Minshew was a sixth-round draft pick, while Lock was a second-round selection a year ago. Both will get full opportunity to sink or swim this season, but the Jags and Broncos easily could move on. Bridgewater was signed to a three-year, $63-million deal, but he only got $33 million guaranteed, and the Panthers can buy him out after 2021 with only a $5 million cap charge for 2022.

It wouldn't be surprising to see each of the three teams in Tier 4 be in the market for a new quarterback in next year's draft. Or, all three could stick with what they have if their quarterback plays well.

Of the Tier 3 teams, half of the six in that group likely will be looking for a new quarterback after this season, while the other three probably will be happy enough to stick with the status quo.

The six teams in Tier 2 all should be looking toward the future, though the Lions and Falcons could choose to wait another year. The other four teams -- the Steelers, Colts, Saints and Bucs -- should not, though the Colts did use a fourth-round pick on Jacob Eason this year and have Jacoby Brissett on their roster.

All told, that should mean at least seven to 10 teams could be looking to draft their quarterback of the future in 2021. That seems like a lot, but it's really not, especially if it's on the low side of that number.

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State's Justin Fields, Trey Lance of North Dakota State and Jamie Newman of Georgia -- a Wake Forest transfer -- are considered first-round talents as of this writing. That obviously can change, as Kellen Mond of Texas A&M and K.J. Costello of Mississippi State and formerly of Stanford, could push their way into the first round with strong seasons.

The 2021 quarterback draft class is considered a good one. It's one Steelers fans should be watching closely if/when the 2021 college season is played.

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