So, we now know the NFL is going to move forward with playing the 2020 season under what is essentially a new one-year CBA agreed to Friday by the league and the NFLPA.
One of the key points in this new deal is that the 2020 salary cap won't be adjusted down from the previously announced $198.2 million. But, the deal also stipulates that the 2021 cap can't fall below $175 million if revenues drop this season as expected.
The decrease in revenue would be spread out over the next four seasons as opposed to all being counted in 2021.
That's the worst-case scenario. To drop down to $175 million, all teams would likely have to play this season with no fans in their stadiums. The money the league gets from the TV networks for the additional two playoff games from the expansion to seven teams earning postseason spots would have to be less than the $150 million estimated to come from those additional two games.
OK. Let's say that does happen, or at least something close to it. Then what?
Well, a lot of teams, including the Steelers, are going to have some housecleaning to do.
According to Spotrac, 14 of the league's 32 teams would have to release players or renegotiate some contracts just to get under that $175 million number. Six other teams would be under the cap, but by less than $10 million, which would likely only give them enough cap space to sign their draft picks.
This has caused a lot of panic for the fan bases for a lot of teams. The Eagles, for example, would need to trim nearly $100 million. The Saints ($70 million), Falcons ($49 million) and Chiefs ($34 million) also all would be painfully over the cap.
The Steelers would be $13.6 million over the cap, which had been expected to be in the $215 million range in 2021 had this been a normal year. The Steelers would have had $27 million in cap space had that been the case.
Obviously, it's a considerable difference, especially for a team with players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, three of the four offensive tackles and many others headed into the final season of their contract.
But just because that is what the NFL and NFLPA have agreed to at this point, doesn't mean that is what the rules for 2021 will be.
There will be a lot of pressure from both sides of the table for this to be renegotiated again in the offseason. The NFL isn't going to want 20 of its teams to have to release a bunch of players just to be able to operate in 2021. And the NFLPA isn't going to want to see dozens of veteran players released -- most of whom were playing on good contracts -- with no real landing spots available since just a handful of teams will have cap space to sign them to new deals. It would, after all, be a buyer's market.
The feeling is that this agreement is now in place to ensure that a 2020 season takes place. It's the worst-case scenario. But it's more realistic to think the two sides will work something out so that the cap stays at or much closer to the $198.2 million at which it currently sits.
• The new deal ensures that teams won't be taking the practice field in pads until mid-August.
For the Steelers and most teams, that means they can't have their first practice in pads until Aug. 17. From there, they'll have a maximum of 14 padded practices before they play their first game.
The feeling throughout these extreme circumstances is that teams with less turnover and more continuity were going to be in a better spot than teams who made coaching changes, signed a bunch of free agents or were counting on rookies to play key roles this season.
If teams having just 14 padded practices doesn't drive that point home, nothing does.
• The Steelers have held off having any long-term contract negotiations with players who are heading into the final seasons of their contracts because of the unknowns involved.
Now we know why.
The Chiefs, for example, just handed Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones big deals. Those two players will now count $46 million against the team's salary cap in 2021. If the cap is at $175 million, those two players will account for 26 percent of the team's salary cap next season.
But what about the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, you might ask?
Well, his cap hit is $41.25 million in 2021 after he and the team restructured his current deal this season to clear some cap space.
The Steelers can add a year or two to Roethlisberger's current deal to lower that cap hit next season. In fact, this now all but guarantees that will likely happen.
• Even teams that are under that $175 million threshold have issues.
The Cowboys, for example, are $10.8 million under that number. That's great, right?
Realize that number doesn't include quarterback Dak Prescott, who is playing under the franchise tag this season and isn't under contract in 2021.
In fact, the only quarterback the Cowboys have under contract in 2021 is Clay Thorson. It's reasonable to expect the Cowboys aren't going to play in 2021 with Thorson as their starting quarterback. It's also reasonable to expect that a starting quarterback is going to cost the Cowboys more than $10 million next year.
• The same goes for the Patriots.
They have $48 million in cap space next year, so they're a little better off than most. But the only quarterback on the roster is Jared Stidham. Guard Joe Thuney, whom they placed the franchise tag on this year, also will be a free agent.
That sweetheart deal they got with Cam Newton coming off two injury-plagued seasons won't be in place. Newton won't be playing for peanuts again in 2021, assuming he proves he's healthy. He'll cost them upwards of $25 million.
The Patriots will have cash on hand, but not the windfall some have been chortling about on social media.
And you know who has a TON of open cap space next season when teams wont be able to afford their big $ players? That's right, the New England Patriots https://t.co/WEaixiITV5 pic.twitter.com/4XxhVjRwkp
— AWLSabermetrics (@awlsabermetrics) June 15, 2020
Hey, maybe having $15 to $20 million next year -- once Newton and Thuney are presumably signed -- will be a lot of money. But it's certainly not a ton of space.
• Here's the other issue. Because of the new CBA signed earlier this year, base salaries are going up around $100,000 per player. So, in reality, even if the cap stays the same, teams will have around $5 million less to work with, anyway, because even the cheapest players on their roster are getting a $100,000 raise each.
Cap space will dry up quickly.
• A number of readers on this site have properly pointed out that the camp battles series I've been writing here haven't included many starting spots.
In fact, the Steelers realistically only have two open spots in their lineup -- right tackle and nose tackle.
And in both of those cases, the team will be looking at players who have been in their system for several years to fill the void.
So, while other teams are running some pretty vanilla stuff early in the season, the Steelers should have their full arsenal of plays -- both offensively and defensively -- available.
That should be a pretty significant advantage.
• With only 14 padded practices, injuries could be a major issue across the league this year. And not the usual ones.
While teams will spend the first part of their camps conditioning and getting guys ready for the rigors of a season, it's not going to be enough to prepare them for the contact they'll face once the season starts.
I expect soft-tissue injuries, ie. hamstring and groin pulls and strains, to be an issue, especially early on. You can't go from running at 75 percent speed in practice to full speed in a game and not expect things like that to happen.
That's why training camps and preseason games are important.
• It seems a lot of teams are talking about keeping a third or fourth quarterback around and having that player isolate from the rest of their roster to ensure they have one available should their other quarterbacks happen to test positive for coronavirus.
If that spot doesn't have Devlin Hodges written all over it for the Steelers, I don't know what does.
Hodges proved last season that he can come in on short notice and win a game. Practice squads are expanded to 16 players. The Steelers can put a quarterback on the practice squad and keep him in the loop virtually while having him isolate at home.
• The interesting thing will be what happens with kickers and long snappers. While every team will have multiple options at other spots -- even if they obviously aren't as talented as the starters -- it's been rare for teams to keep an additional placekicker, punter or long snapper on the practice squad.
But what happens if your kicker tests positive on a Friday? You might not have time to get a new kicker in, get him tested and properly vetted with quarantine rules in place.
The new deal agreed to allows for players to be placed on a temporary IR from which players will have to be deemed clear of coronavirus before they can return.
That's likely to take at least two weeks every time. So if a player tests positive, he's likely out two weeks.
It's going to be a very different season from anything we've ever seen before.