The Pirates opened Wednesday with back-to-back home runs and made that early lead hold, winning their second straight over the Cubs at PNC Park, 2-1.
After watching two balls fly out of the ball park early, Gregory Polanco came to bat looking to add to the Pirates’ early lead.
He took some mighty cuts, but the result was something to familiar for this year. Whiff for strike one. Two pitches later, a whiff for strike two. Shortly after that, a whiff for strike three.
That was the start to another hitless game for Polanco, his 31st out of the 47 he has played this season, lowering his slash line to .152/.219/.317.
Polanco traces those problems back to when he missed the end of summer camp and the beginning of the regular season after testing positive for COVID-19.
“That took away [from] my swing, because I was ready,” Polanco said Wednesday. “I was feeling good every day, feeling better and better. Then those two weeks, 12 days that I was home doing nothing, that took away a lot from my timing on my hitting.”
Nearly two months after returning from the virus, Polanco has still not found his timing, and he has routinely had a hard time catching up to fastballs. For a prototypical slugger, Polanco kept his strikeouts under control throughout most of his career. This season has been a noticeable outlier in that regard, striking out in just under 40% of his plate apperances.
It’s not for a lack of effort. Polanco and hitting coach Rick Eckstein worked in the cage again Wednesday, looking for something to click. No one knows exactly what is wrong.
If they did, Polanco wouldn’t be flirting with an on-base percentage so low that only one other Pirate over the last 100 years has played as much as he has and done worse: Doug Strange had a .217 in 1998. It is, quite seriously, one of the worst offensive seasons in franchise history.
Yet he has still been a regular in the lineup all year. Why?
“It’s important because he’s going to be a big part of our club next year,” Derek Shelton said recently. “He’s going to get a blow here or there, but to give him an extended period of time off doesn’t do us any good. We have to figure out something that’s going to help him going into the offseason and going into next year.”
This has been a year of extremes for Polanco. Per Baseball Savant, when he makes contact, his exit velocity ranks in the top 1% of hitters. Making contact is far from a guarantee, though, and he ranks in the bottom 1% of hitters in strikeout rate.
Polanco’s shoulder injury was a result of his base running, and the surgery greatly affected his defense. While neither has been exemplary, Polanco has done some good work on the basepaths, including swiping three bases on three attempts, and has graded out as being fairly average in the field.
The results have been terrible, but many of the underlying peripherals have been good. The thing is, those peripherals don’t come into play enough for it to be worth it when he whiffs and strikes out at the rate he does.
But again, he’s coming back next season.
“I'm really encouraged about all those other things — the strength, the way the ball’s coming off the bat, how he’s moving,” Ben Cherington said earlier this month. “Frankly, his energy and attitude … it's been a frustrating year.
“Nobody doesn't want to perform; certainly, he doesn't. He's coming in here every day, getting back after it with his work and has been a good teammate. He's still really young and at a point in his career where there's no reason to think that he can't be a really good player again. I would expect him to be. I look forward to him doing that in a Pirates uniform next year.”
Polanco’s 2021 return is due in very large part to the fact that he is owed $11.6 million next year. That is too much to trade after the season he had, and too much to waive without at least taking one last look and hoping for an improvement.
His future with the organization is less certain after that.
Polanco’s contract could potentially run through 2023 based on two club options, but next year is the final one that is guaranteed. That leaves three options for how the next year goes:
A. He plays out his contract and the Pirates decide to exercise a buyout rather than pick up an option
B. He is traded at some point between now and the 2021 trade deadline
C. The Pirates pick up his club option
Of those three, C. seems the far least likely. He is either going to play well enough that a team will trade for him, or he will continue to struggle. If it’s the latter, he will have no trade value, and no team, least of all the Pirates, will pay $12.5 million for a sub-replacement level player, regardless of his ceiling.
The Pirates are in a damned if they do, damned if they don’t position with Polanco. They’re at least being firm with their stance. He’ll be back in 2021. It’s hard to see it happening in 2022.
So is there any hope for a bounce back in 2021, even if it is just to flip him?
Well, for one, he’s healthy.
Yeah, we’ve heard that before.
But he did get through the season without an injury, the virus excluded. The left shoulder has held up, even as he has made longer throws than just hitting the cutoff man, like he originally planned to do all season.
“That's a testament to the work that Gregory put in all offseason and then during the pandemic with the work he put in there,” director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said. “You look at some of the informatics out there, the in-game informatics, and his arm velocity, arm strength isn't quite what it used to be, and we haven't given up on that hope… Very encouraged that he was able to withstand the rigors of the season, albeit in 60 games, without any therapeutic intervention.”
But being healthy also impacts how he will prepare this offseason. Last winter he was at physical therapy six days a week. He continued to focus on his rehab during the shutdown.
“The last two offseasons have been a lot of therapy for me, not much in the field hitting and throwing, lifting stuff,” Polanco said. “Now, it’s like the regular offseason for me. I can go take a little vacation for a couple weeks then go back to work right away. A lot on my hitting, especially.”
But that might just be grasping at air. Polanco simply hasn’t been the same player since the slide, and there’s no guarantee he’ll ever get his timing in order.
He’s going to try. That’s basically all the Pirates can do, too.
“I’m going to work,” Polanco said. “I’m going to work hard. I’m going to work really hard for next season to be ready to be the player that I think I can be, that I know I can be. I can be better than I’m doing now.”
• It's been a trying year for Trevor Williams, but at least he ended it on a positive note, going 5 2/3 innings of one run ball.
That only run was an first inning 0-2 changeup that stayed up to Anthony Rizzo. Despite that mistake, he finished with three hits and three walks allowed.
Williams has been working on a new delivery as of late, and over the past few days it has really clicked.
So it's a positive way to end a season, but to finally have it all come together only at the very end...
“Do I wish I had 20 more starts? Of course," Williams said. "I think all of us as a rotation are trending upward, which is really huge,” Williams said. “Everyone is in the same boat. I’m just looking forward to a full offseason to be able to really capitalize and hone in on what I need to hone in on.”
Williams finishes the year 2-8 with a 6.18 ERA. His 15 home runs allowed are the most in baseball.
• The bullpen took it from there, providing 3 1/3 innings of two-hit relief. Austin Davis, Nik Turley and Chris Stratton protected the lead for Richard Rodriguez in the ninth, who nailed down his fourth save of the season.
With all the injuries to the Pirates' bullpen this year, Rodriguez has done well sliding into the closer role. Shelton knew he had the stuff to fill a late inning role, and Rodriguez has showed that he has the demeanor teams look for in a closer.
“If you spend any time talking to Richie, he never gets too high, too low,” Shelton said. “… Richie is not afraid. You can give him the ball every single night regardless and he's going to take it and go out and compete and that lends very well to the back end of games."
• The offense can be summed up in two swings. The first by Adam Frazier to open:
And the second by Ke'Bryan Hayes:
Kyle Hendricks didn't make many mistakes over his 7 2/3 innings, but he paid for hanging a couple two-strike fastballs.
“We went back-to-back-to-back homers. We just waited 24 hours to do it,” Shelton said with a smile. “Really nice to see Frazier lead off the game, and then Key hits a two-iron into the right-center-field bleachers.”
The last time the Pirates hit back-to-back home runs to open a game was Sept. 20, 2013, accomplished by Jose Tabata and Neil Walker.
• With their 17th win, the Pirates guaranteed that they will not finish with the worst winning percentage in franchise history. That title still belongs to the 1952 Pirates, who finished at .273.
• The Rangers lost to the Diamondbacks, 7-3, Wednesday, meaning the Pirates' tragic number for the worst record in baseball remains at three. Both teams have four games remaining.
• Injury report: Cole Tucker (concussion) is making strides in his return but will not play again this season. Kevin Newman was hit in what Tomczyk referred to as the funny bone in the lower leg. There's no structural damage to worry about.
Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes, both who have right forearm strains, will start playing catch at some point over the next 7-10 days. Nick Burdi (right elbow) hasn't progressed to that point yet. Kyle Crick's right shoulder injury was referred to as a "two week injury." Keone Kela is playing catch and preparing for the offseason.
• Factoid of the night: Williams has allowed three home runs on 0-2 counts this season. That is tied for the most in baseball with Derek Holland. As a team, the Pirates have allowed seven such homers, the most in baseball.