Kovacevic: Bye-bye, baseball, and, ideally, several disappointing Pirates

I've seen Derek Shelton light up, I swear.

Meaning before this.

He's a good man, a family man, as easygoing with a smile to a passing stranger as when riding bikes alongside his young daughter. I feel fortunate to have gotten to know him at least a little this spring and summer, including away from the diamond, and he's exactly as he comes across, exactly as one would hope when watching him from afar.

But this smile ... this was different.

This final Thursday afternoon in September saw the Pirates' 2020 finale at PNC Park, a savage tease of a 7-0 slaughter of the Cubs that was, even in the scope of a three-game winning streak -- yeah, that cleared my spellcheck -- sadly unrepresentative of the season as a whole. 

Chad Kuhl was superb with seven scoreless innings, the first five of those without a hit. There's returning from Tommy John surgery, and then there's roaring back. Given this dude's character, it shouldn't surprise anyone he did the latter.

Geoff Hartlieb and Blake Cederlind were perfect in the final two. Hartlieb might as well have been left for dead after 2019, but he's been the brightest surprise of the pen. Cederlind's a comparative child, basically belonging in Class AA if this were a normal year, but for the triple-digits he was hitting here on the radar gun.

Colin Moran, Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds and Josh Bell all homered. No, not in the same week. In the same game.

Ke'Bryan Hayes ... did this:

My goodness.

I'll repeat: It's unrepresentative as a whole. Meaning, of course, the team being 18-39 and richly deserving of that rancid record and so much less.

But I'll also write this, and with confidence: The failures of some offered opportunities for others. And at least a handful, maybe more, made something of those.

____________________

And yeah, this was what I'd mentioned to Shelton that had him light up after this game.

"You know, DK, that's probably the most important point we're going to take out of the season," he came right back. "That, because of the injuries we've had, guys stepped up and seized opportunities. We’ve seen Hartlieb and Sam Howard do it. That’s good. That’s the things we need to be a complete team and to work forward into next year. When guys have the opportunity, we need them to seize them. Our starters really stepped up. It’s a 60-game season. If we played like we did for 60 games and then you get on a groove and run like this, you can bring yourself back into it."

I didn't get that last part, but I didn't need to. He sounded so seemingly ... I'm not sure satisfied is the right word. No one could be satisfied in such a setting. But he did sound as if, after a two-month torment, he, Ben Cherington and others among the Pirates' decision-makers have at least some potential answers. And that's got to feel outright giddy after facing the very real fear that there were none.

Let's go around the horn ...

The rotation would've been the biggest disappointment, had it not been for the offense. No one expected an internal Cy Young battle, but neither was it hoped that Trevor Williams would give up more home runs than anyone on the planet. Or that Joe Musgrove would contribute his usual decent quarter of a season, if that. Between that and the injury to Chris Archer, any semblance of stability was blown to bits.

Absolute killer. And I'll present this with gusto: Neither Williams nor Musgrove should be gifted a spot in the rotation in 2021. In Williams' case, I'd argue that he might not even deserve an arbitration tender. What he's done since that magical second half of 2018, anyone anywhere can do.

At the same time, opportunities were seized: Kuhl, again, was wonderful. He's a lock for the rotation. Same applies for JT Brubaker, whose 45 Ks in 42 1/3 innings rise far above his 4.46 ERA from this perspective. He's got stuff to match the poise. It's tempting to throw Steven Brault into this, too, if only for his past couple of starts, but we've heard him sing that song before. He'll have to prove it in Bradenton. Maybe he will. 

Who's missing?

Jameson Taillon isn't to be forgotten. His recovery's been smooth, he'll be more than ready, and he's another lock.

And oh, yeah, Mitch Keller.

He was my prospective swing vote in 2020, and he'll now have to be that again next year. Kid told me in February he expects to be the ace of this staff. Well, that's not much of a bar, but it's higher than the one he'll be able to hit this season after being held to four starts by that oblique injury. He's absolutely the most talented.

Anyone else?

Eh. Cody Ponce pretty much exemplifies the entire Neal Huntington/Kyle Stark cupboard at this point. He showed well enough in three starts, but if the Pirates thought that was significant, he'd still be in the rotation now.

The bullpen best exemplifies the way this all went.

I expected Keone Kela to bomb as closer, and he somehow sunk beneath even that. I have no clue who or what to believe about his various ailments or non-ailments, but when the manager says you're fine and then you're not fine, the antenna goes sky-high here. And it happened way too often with this guy, who's only worth his trademark drama if he pitches well, never mind not at all.

He's a free agent. Show him the door.

Kyle Crick was to be the parachute for Kela, but he was robustly erratic early, then hurt his shoulder. He's due for arbitration. Another tough call on tendering.

Richard Rodriguez was terrific in spite of a slow start of his own, currently riding 11 consecutive scoreless appearances, including four saves. He'll be part of this in 2021, obviously, but anointing him closer would feel forced. Cederlind needs seasoning, though not much, and Nick Burdi could be a candidate if he can ever run into any kind of luck.

Closer's murky. The rest isn't.

Hartlieb, Howard and Chris Stratton stood tall in filling vacancies, and Clay Holmes had both eyes and mitts popping before getting hurt. There's promise here. Rocket Dovydas Neverauskas and Derek Holland into the same celestial body that engulfed Miguel Del Pozo, then sort out the rest.

Other end of the battery is simple: Jacob Stallings, the team's very best player in 2020, solidified his status as one of the majors' premier defensive catchers while also holding his own with the bat. He's 31, so he doesn't exactly profile for a build/rebuild in any way, but his ability to handle a pitching staff brings its own worth that might render his age moot.

Backup catchers don't matter much, but it sure would be nice if that player isn't a complete catastrophe offensively, as John Ryan Murphy was. The stat of the millennium: He struck out in all 11 at-bats vs. the Reds.

And speaking of complete catastrophes offensively ...

I haven't got a lot left to say about how terribly the Pirates' projected top five hitters let them down. So, barring further invective, I just update this graphic anymore:

Not all opportunities are created equal, as Cherington essentially reminded me in an exchange we had a few days ago. Players perceived to be part of the future will get more. And that's understandable.

At the same time, I wouldn't cement any of those five onto my 2021 lineup. Not one. Not after this.

Continuing around the horn, Bell's not a child anymore. He's 28. He's treading dangerously into he-is-what-he-is territory. Sure, his current .223/.300/.370 slash line is well off his career .261/.348/.467. But he's got two years until free agency, and each additional month like the two we just saw devalues what Cherington could get in a trade. And no, he wouldn't stay. He's a Scott Boras client.

Is Moran the answer there?

Eh. His nine home runs in 165 at-bats could make him of interest to someone else. And his defense is about the same as Bell's.

Which makes it all the more puzzling that Cherington and Shelton didn't utilize this chance to give Will Craig at least a cameo. He's got first-round pedigree, some pop and an outstanding glove at first. He's no budding star, but he's also not lugging known flaws.

I'll take the middle infield as a single entity, if only because it's disintegrated into an unidentifiable blob. Erik Gonzalez looked fun for a few weeks, but now he's right back to what he's always been, holding a .657 OPS against his .658 career OPS. Should've moved him while anyone was fooled. Frazier's far too hot-cold to hold any everyday job, and it's obvious management feels likewise since he's spending time in the outfield now. So that leaves Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker, with the first having plunged off a cliff from a fine rookie year and the other still showing scant signs of a steady approach at the plate. 

What to do?

Got me. This is a problem in search of another problem.

Clearest solution: Wake Newman back up, teach Tucker to keep still inside the box, then glue Gonzalez and Frazier to the bench. But that doesn't mean any starting jobs should be handed out.

Third base belongs to Hayes.

Every.

Damned.

Day.

And then there's the majors' least productive outfield, where Reynolds' own plunge has been ... not disappointing but devastating to the franchise's future if it isn't corrected, where there's no true center fielder, and where Gregory Polanco will chew up a guaranteed $11 million in pursuit of the National League's exit-velocity trophy, should such a thing ever be created.

So, yeah. There's work to do.

____________________

I don't envy Cherington or Shelton. They've got to undo a dozen years of Huntington/Stark failure in the minors, not least of which are the sorry fundamentals we've witnessed this summer. Cherington's got a history of building up a system. Shelton's got a history, including the histories of the Rays and Twins, of emphasizing excellence in fundamentals. But they weren't about to pull a 180 in a normal year, never mind one that's been so apocalyptic that even the Pierogi Races were pushed out onto the Sixth Street Bridge:

How have Cherington and Shelton done to date?

I mean, who can tell?

They've been in place less than a year, they've seen two months of ball in the bigs, zero months of ball in the minors, and they've likely learned as little as what's in my relatively scant analysis above.

And that, to be honest, is why I'd prefer Shelton's stance of emphasizing the positive. Meaning those players I've cited who rose above. Because they didn't see an opportunity to be better than Del Pozo. They saw an opportunity to pitch or play in the majors and, to various extents, showed well enough to earn more next spring.

That might be just the start of building a competitive culture around here, but it'll be a start.

And the feeling won't be nearly as empty with their next win at home ...