One of the mantra's of the Pirates' regime is to get better everyday. After finishing with the worst record in baseball in their first year at the helm, there are plenty of places to improve.
There are almost certainly too many holes for the Pirates to fill to become a serious contender in 2021, but the reliever market offers a unique opportunity. With Keone Kela a free agent and Nick Burdi out for next year due to Tommy John surgery, the Pirates do not have much proven late-inning relief outside of Richard Rodriguez. This is a large free agent class and it doesn't look like a lot of teams are looking to spend big bucks after a down financial year.
While the Pirates will continue to look at the waiver wire, minor-league free agents and trades for bullpen additions, one or two major-league free agents could be a good low risk, decent reward move. The team can offer a high-leverage role to a pitcher who may not have had that opportunity in the past or has lost it after a slump. If they succeed in that role, the Pirates could trade them for a prospect at the deadline. If they don't pitch well, the acquisition cost was low.
The top available free agents will be out of the Pirates' price range and would almost certainly want to go to a contender rather than a team that is focusing on building towards the future. That next tier of relievers is up for grabs though, whether they are reclamation projects or guys that just need to be given a chance to get outs at the end of games. Here are five relievers that could fit in nicely with the Pirates.
Wade Davis
These names are presented alphabetically, so don’t interpret this as Davis being the best the Pirates could attract. If that was the case, this would be a very, very long offseason.
Once one of the game’s premier relievers, Davis’ career took a nosedive the last two years with the Rockies, going 1-7 with a 9.77 ERA. Some of that can be blamed on Coors Field, but a 5.31 road ERA during that stretch is hardly appealing either.
The good news is Davis’ pitches still spin a lot and get good movement. The bad news is velocity has dropped significantly, with his heater going from an average of 93.8 mph in 2018 to 91.4 mph this season. This trend has been going on for years, and it may be time for him to rely on the cutter and curve more instead of his four-seamer.
Perhaps he just needs a fresh start or to get as far away from Colorado as possible. Perhaps he is just washed up for good. It wouldn’t do any harm to give him a minor-league contract and find out. If he bounces back, the Pirates will have a fine player to try to flip at the deadline. If he doesn’t, then they at least brought a veteran into the clubhouse during spring training.
Sean Doolittle
This is going to be a pretty telling offseason for Doolittle. After years of being one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, injuries have slowed him down the last two seasons, including limiting him to just 7 ⅔ innings in 2020. Additionally, his fastball has dropped from being consistently in the mid-90s to averaging just 91 mph in 2020, though that may be a product of the shortened season.
Doolittle is going to find work. Worst case scenario, he would be a great left-handed pickup for a team looking for middle-relief depth. The question is how many teams will give him a guaranteed late-inning job.
The Pirates could offer such a role, and if it’s a one-year deal, he could test the market again the following offseason after improving his stock. This doesn’t look so much like a matter of dollars, but rather if Doolittle wants to pitch for a contender or be a closer again.
Jake McGee
Like Doolittle, McGee could choose a lesser leverage role for a contender rather than go to a team that looks to be rebuilding in the Pirates.
A couple months ago, McGee’s career looked dead in the water after being designated for assignment by the Rockies. The 34-year-old bounced back in a big way for the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA over 20 ⅓ innings for the eventual champions.
He turned his career around by going all-in on his fastball, throwing it 95 mph and 96% of the time. Even though they knew what was coming, McGee still struck out 33 of his 79 batters faced during the regular season.
McGee hasn’t been given a chance to close consistently since 2016, and maxed out with 19 saves with the Rays in 2014. He shared a locker room with Derek Shelton for years when he was the Rays’ hitting coach, so there’s some familiarity there.
At this stage of his career, McGee could probably bounce around the league a few more years as a good southpaw reliever, but not get a lot of high-leverage innings. If he wants a larger role than that, he’s going to need to prove once again he can get the final outs. The Pirates could offer that opportunity.
David Robertson
Robertson has a career 2.90 ERA and has recorded over 30 saves in a season three times in his 12 years in the majors. Normally, contenders would be lining up to sign a pitcher like him to bolster the backend of their bullpen.
The catch here is he has barely pitched the past two seasons.
Robertson pitched just 6 ⅔ innings with the Phillies before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. He tried to return in time for the final part of this season, but a setback in his rehab forced him to stop throwing for six weeks. At the last update, he is still expected to be ready for spring training.
Even though he has not received the same acclaim as some of his peers, Robertson was one of the game’s best late-inning arms for the better part of a decade before his surgery. An incentive-laden contract and a handshake agreement that he will close could be enticing enough to bring him to the Pirates.
Josh Tomlin
It wasn’t too long ago that Tomlin was the fifth starter for the Indians, who had one of the best rotations of this millennium. He eventually lost that job in a crowded field of good pitchers and started life as a reliever.
He cleaned up his delivery at the Driveline training facility before the 2019 season, and has pitched to a 3.61 ERA over 94 ⅔ innings as a reliever the past two years. The batted ball data is even more encouraging. Going based on the batted ball data he had as a reliever, Baseball Savant's projections say he had an expected ERA of 2.17 and an expected wOBA of .219. Both were ninth best among relievers with at least 50 batters faced this year.
The Braves had Tomlin start a bit towards the end of the season out of necessity. If he wants to start again, he could probably find someone to give him a shot as a fifth guy, even though he is 36 years old. But despite his good results out of the bullpen, the Braves barely used him in high-leverage roles. A late-inning role and a guaranteed major-league deal could be enticing.