TALLAHASSE, Fl. -- Pitt's game against Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium this Saturday at 4 p.m. isn't about who Florida State is, it's about who the Panthers have to be moving forward.
Pat Narduzzi has seen his team spiral from its 3-0 start to lose four straight and lose its identity as potentially having a great defense into a group that's given up more than 30 points in each of those losses.
Whether or not Kenny Pickett plays is still up in the air, but Pitt needs to win this game regardless of who starts at quarterback. Not just for the players' hopes to improve their own season, but for the status of the program moving forward in the next few years. If young playmakers like Jordan Addison, Calijah Kancey, SirVocea Dennis and Joey Yellen are going to mature into leaders that take the program in a better direction while still under Narduzzi, they need to be part of a major turnaround that shows them what it means to be resilient.
Pitt still leads the ACC with 31 sacks and stops the run better than any team by allowing only 69.1 rushing yards per game. But that hasn't been enough to win a game since September. The Panthers need a complete performance against Florida State where they're sound on both sides of the ball to bring stability back to the team.
Normally I preview a game by going over matchups, Xs and Os and weigh advantages against disadvantages to give a sense of how Pitt can or can't win a game.
But not this week.
Florida State is one of the worst teams on both sides of the ball in the ACC. The Seminoles are scoring 22.8 points per game, ranking 13th in the ACC, and are surrendering 35 points per game, ranking 14th in the ACC.
The talent on Pitt's roster has to win this game and stop the four game skid. No matchup disadvantage or schematic concerns can afford to derail the Panthers' chances from winning this game. Plenty of those impediments have been self-inflicted by on-field mistakes by Pitt.
Watch here as Pitt just completely leaves the tight end uncovered against Miami for an easy touchdown pass by D'Eriq King:
Giving up easy big plays has become the norm for a defense that was supposed to be the best of Narduzzi's tenure.
Those problems continued to compound on each other as the season continued and more blown coverages were exposed in each of the Panthers' four losses. Part of what both Narduzzi and defensive coordinator Randy Bates say played into that drop in play came from the team's long schedule.
"After seven weeks of football, the bye gives us a chance to recover," Bates said Wednesday. "We were at the point where the whole team was practicing in yellow so that we could let guys heal up. But now that people have healed, it gives us a chance to practice and play faster again. I hope to see that we're going to play as fast as we have this season, and maybe faster. It seems like when we were going through the grind that we slowed a bit. Maybe that hurt us a bit in chasing down quarterbacks, but I see us out there playing a lot faster. That's my top reason to be excited that the guys are out playing with a top level of speed."
Narduzzi expressed similar concerns last week during the team's bye over Pitt being overloaded with games and his roster being exhausted. Against Notre Dame the dam broke when Ian Book led the Fighting Irish to a 45-3 win over the Panthers.
Even the team's biggest playmakers whiffed on opportunities to get the Panthers in the game. Watch as safety Paris Ford is in position to make a play on a deep ball from Book, but mistimes his jump and gives up the easy touchdown:
And now, Ford is gone for the season after opting out on Monday.
Both Narduzzi and Bates sounded excited for redshirt freshman Brandon Hill to play Saturday, as he's displayed competent play throughout practice during the team's training camp and weekly practices.
"It's an opportunity for that guy to take it over and be the future safety at that spot, and I really think you guys will be impressed with what you see back there out of him," Narduzzi said Thursday when asked how excited he was about seeing Brandon Hill play more. "I think he's a fantastic football player. He's athletic, he's tough, he's physical, and he flies around with a ton of effort. It's next man up. It's a great opportunity for him, and that's really what my focus goes to is obviously to Florida State like we did in practice today and focus on what we can control and the guys that are in those meeting rooms and on that football field."
But Narduzzi's system of defense has to hold up to not put the pressure on Hill to have to carry the defense. That's what it's designed to do as the Panthers load the box to stop the run and rush the quarterback while leaving the secondary on islands in coverage.
Bates' biggest takeaway from watching the many problems on defense against Notre Dame was that the pass rush couldn't impact the game enough because of Book's play.
"Book escaped us several times," Bates said when asked what the main reasons were giving up lots of points to Notre Dame. "We have to do a better job corralling the quarterback. When guys escape, they find a way to make a big play and find somebody open. It's very difficult to stay with a guy for a long period of time. Sooner or later those guys will shake you if you don't put pressure on the quarterback."
Pitt finished the game with only two sacks, which was its lowest of the season. This is where Pitt can get back into controlling games by winning up front and being disruptive against Florida State, who's given up 18 sacks over six games.
The Panthers still have two explosive edge rushers in Rashad Weaver and Patrick Jones, who are now arguably the best players on the roster left after Ford and Jaylen Twyman opted out. The last time Pitt was in a close game against an opponent was its 31-30 loss to Boston College back on October 10th.
One of the biggest turning points that got Pitt back into the game was a sack, fumble and fumble recovery all pulled off by Weaver on Phil Jurkovec in the fourth quarter. Watch how Weaver walks his offensive tackle back five yards before cutting inside and chopping down Jurkovec's hands to force the fumble:
This is where the game changing plays have to come for Pitt against Florida State.
Pitt's entire defensive scheme is dependent on stopping the run and the pass rush creating enough chaos for the Panthers' secondary to jump on bad passes.
After saying Thursday that no major changes were coming on offense, Narduzzi also talked about how the defense would have minor changes, but that ultimately the scheme wouldn't change because he didn't want to jeopardize the team's chemistry.
"Some new things you spring," Narduzzi said about potentially changing the game plan. "You think about the old -- when you were in chemistry class back in the day and you've got that vial and you pour the wrong stuff and everything explodes on you. I'm going to try not to look for any explosions, try to make sure the chemicals are right. I'm going to do what our guys know how to do. I think that’s probably the best advice. And, again, I've got a lot of faith in Brandon [Hill]. I don't think we have to -- we've got different changeups every week, but we've just got to play smart and know what we're doing and be consistent back there."
That chemistry hasn't consistently existed in the team's four losses. There have been flashes like the sack and fumble forced by Weaver in the above play, but those moments have been too few and far between in those losses.
The best moments from Pitt's secondary have come off plays created by pressure hurrying ill-advised passes. In fact, the team's last win came on a final play where Pinnock intercepted Louisville's last pass of the game because Malik Cunningham was flushed out of the pocket and forced to throw into traffic:
That's what the Panthers have to get back to if they hope to turn things around.
Pitt's season is already a disappointment with how far the Panthers have fallen after a strong start. But the freefall has to stop here if there's any hope the Panthers are going to take away something positive from this season. Losing to Florida State would set up the potential for the team to finish with only three wins in a year when Narduzzi has had more senior starters that he's coached for their entire collegiate careers than any other season in his tenure.