Projecting how an 18-year-old hockey player will develop over the following few years is, under the best of circumstances, as much art as science.
Will a young man get taller, or put on some badly needed weight? Can his skating improve enough that he could be effective as a pro? Is there reason to believe the scoring touch he shows against major-junior or college competition will carry over to the next level?
So many questions.
So few certainties.
And that's when scouts are operating in ideal conditions, which hardly is the case in 2020.
Not when some leagues that are part of the NHL's talent-feeder system still are shut down because of the coronavirus. When the number of scouts allowed to attend games in others is severely reduced. When no scouts will be allowed to be present for games in the most celebrated tournament in the world for young players, the world junior championships, which will be held Dec. 25-Jan. 5 in Edmonton.
That competition provides a stage for a lot of standout talents, and allows scouts to see how individuals perform in high-stakes situations, which obviously can impact a player's ranking on prospect lists.
"For the scouts, even for management, it's a highlight tournament," said Patrik Allvin, the Penguins' assistant general manager who oversees their amateur scouting operation. "It (provides) a really good evaluation of players who aren't in the NHL."
Allvin said his staff plans to follow the tournament on TV and online, and chances are the scouts will see the usual high level of competition.
What those working in the Ontario Hockey League this winter will witness remains to be determined, because it might not look much like hockey.
Lisa MacLeod, Ontario's minister of sports, has been adamant that the league, which is set to begin a 40-game regular season Feb. 4, will be allowed to operate only if it prohibits body-checking in an effort to limit spread of the virus.
Given that initiating -- and absorbing -- hits is an important part of most players' games, assessing them in what essentially would be a no-contact league would be problematic, at best. (Never mind that the merits of the minister's no-hitting ruling is open to debate, since it likely will lead to more close-quarters battles for possession of the puck.)
"That's a big part of the game, especially at this young age," Allvin said. "You want to see how they compete, go into battles. I don't know how they're going to be able to address that, or maybe that will change as we go along. I don't think the OHL teams are really excited about that, either. You're taking away a big part of the game, in terms of the physicality. ... It's definitely going to be harder to evaluate them."
Allvin said he is unaware of any major tournaments other than the world juniors that have decided to bar scouts, but noted that a number of leagues in North America and Europe have set limits on how many can attend games. Only one scout per team can be present in Sweden and Finland, he said, while the University of Michigan, which competes in the Big Ten, will cap per-game attendance for scouts at 12.
"Every team in every state has their own (local) restrictions," Allvin said. "There's quite a protocol to go through and be aware of in the (United States Hockey League) and in college hockey here, as it is about to start. It certainly makes it complicated."\
Because few, if any, leagues are expected to conduct as many games as they would in a normal season, scouts will get fewer opportunities than usual to assess players, most of whom will be coming off layoffs that are much longer than normal and likely will be going directly into a condensed schedule.
A sub-optimal situation, for all concerned.
"That's definitely going to be (an issue)," Allvin said. "Especially here. I think everybody's hoping for (a return to regular procedures during) the second half. It definitely will be important for us to be flexible, open-minded, giving all the players a chance to get going."
Barring any additional trades, the Penguins' will have five picks -- one each in the second and fifth rounds and three in the seventh -- in the 2021 draft, and prospect rankings probably won't begin to take shape for a while. Allvin, though, feels that, based on performances his staff witnessed in 2019-20, the draft should yield some quality players.
"In general, I would say it's a pretty decent draft class," he said. "I'm excited about it."
Which might be the only thing in a scout's world that isn't going to change during the 2020-21 season.