Under normal circumstances, trying to find a hidden gem in the Rule 5 draft is like looking for a needle in a haystack. This year, it may be like trying to find a hay-colored needle, and there's more hay.
This year’s draft will take place (remotely) on Dec. 10 this year. Teams will have the option to select minor-league players who are not on a 40-man roster but can no longer be protected by their team (five years of protection or those who sign at 18 or younger, four years for those who sign at 19 or older).
And like the upcoming amateur draft in July, the Pirates will pick first.
The team with the first overall pick has taken a player in the Rule 5 draft every year since 1995. Being able to pick first hasn’t led to much overall success though, as only three of those players even reached 1 career WAR – right-handers Josh Fields (1.8) and Kevin McGlinchy (1,5), and infamous member of the 2003 Rule 5 pillaging of the Pirates’ farm system, first baseman Chris Shelton (3.9).
That’s not to say the Rule 5 draft has been pointless. There have been more than a handful of All-Stars taken in the process over those last 25 years. Johan Santana, Jose Bautista, Shane Victorino, Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton. And of course, the greatest Pirate of all-time, Roberto Clemente, was acquiring via the Rule 5 in 1954. So even though the process produces far, far more misses than hits, it’s a low risk, potentially high reward endeavor. Those are the types of opportunities the Pirates need to take a chance on.
That process of finding that potential gem is going to be more difficult this year, though, since there was no minor-league season. Some players were invited to alternate training sites, where teams had the option to opt into a league-wide program to share video and data from those camps. There were also a handful of instructional games in October.
Outside of that, every scouting report, all data and all video are a year old. A player who was in Class A in 2019 could have been in Class AA in 2020. It’s a far safer bet to take a player who has succeeded in the Class AA or AAA over one who has never reached the upper levels of the minors.
“It is a little harder, but it’s going to be harder for every team,” Ben Cherington said recently. “Everyone’s in the same boat. I think that when we’re in that position of getting the first choice, whether it’s Rule 5 order or waiver order or whatever the order is, we’ve got to be prepared to take advantage of that when we can. So I’m sure we’ll spend a good amount of time looking at who’s available and what makes sense.”
As for the Pirates’ prospects, they opted to protect two players Friday: Rodolfo Castro, a utility infielder with some power, and Max Kranick, a right-handed starting option who upped his velocity into the upper-90s with a shorter arm path. They left a couple other pitchers who could be taken, who I listed here.
The Pirates’ roster is currently at 40, so they will have to clear a spot to potentially add someone. The deadline to non-tender players is Dec. 2.
As for who the Pirates could take, I scoured the Roster Resource team pages and found all of the Rule 5 eligible players who ranked in a team’s top 20 prospects. Rather than give their rankings within each farm system, I took their FanGraphs grade, all of which were either 40, 40+ or 45.
Here are the top prospects available, with some blurbs on particularly intriguing players:
PITCHERS
RHP Luis Oviedo (CLE, 45), RHP Angel Macuare (HOU, 40+), RHP Jose Alberto Rivera (HOU. 40+), RHP Jose Soriano (LAA, 40+), RHP Prelander Berroa (SFG, 40), RHP Zack Brown (MIL, 40), RHP Parker Dunshee (OAK, 40), RHP Wilkel Hernandez (DET, 40), RHP Brian Howard (OAK, 40), RHP Zach Pop (BAL, 40), RHP Luis Rijo (MIN, 40).
Oviedo is the highest rated prospect in this grouping, but has not pitched above class A. That’s going to be a recurring theme for most of these prospects. Teams left them unprotected because they figured they wouldn’t stick with a new club.
One of those young guys who could stick somewhere else is Rivera. He’s very raw and hasn’t pitched above A ball, but his fastball flirts with triple digits and his curveball and splitter have the potential to be plus pitches one day. He seems like the type of guy a team could stash in the bullpen for a year then option him to the minors and stretch him back into a starter in 2022, if they wanted to.
Brown’s stock has dropped drastically the past few years. He was the Brewers’ minor-league pitcher of the year in 2018, but then was clobbered in class AAA in 2019, pitching to a 5.79 ERA over 116 2/3 innings. He wasn’t protected last year by the Brewers and every team passed on him, so he doesn’t exactly seem like a good first overall pick candidate. But the Pirates grabbed Cody Ponce from the Brewers when his stock was down and turned him into good starter depth. Perhaps they could do the same with Brown, if they want to take a second player in the major-league portion of the draft.
Finally, Pop has a power sinker that sits in the mid-90s with a breaking ball that is good enough to keep hitters off balanced. He had Tommy John surgery in May of 2019, so he has barely pitched in organized ball the past two years. Teams are going to have to trust that right elbow is fully healthy, but that seems to be the only risk involved with who looks to be the most major-league ready pitcher in this grouping.
CATCHERS
C Rodolfo Duran (PHI, 40), C Israel Pineda (WAS, 40)
Slim pickings here. Of the two catcher available, Duran appears to be more major-league ready. He spent 2019 in class high-A, so he probably would have been in AA in a normal season. His glove and arm both look like pluses, but a .240/.273/.369 slash line in 2019 is concerning. Pineda similarly struggled at the dish in 2019, slashing .217/.278/.305 in class A.
INFIELDERS
SS Wenceel Perez (DET, 45), SS Wander Javier (MIN, 40+), SS Shervyon Newton (NYM, 40), 2B Luis Santana (HOU, 40), 2B Yunior Severino (MIN, 40), UTL Oswaldo Cabrera (NYY, 40+) UTL Jose Miranda (MIN, 40+), UTL Leonardo Rivas (LAA, 40), UTL Kevin Smith (TOR, 40) UTL Juan Yepez (STL, 40)
Looking at the Pirates’ roster, it seems less likely they will pick an infielder. They just added Castro, who is as good a prospect as anyone on this list, but he doesn’t need to be on the major-league roster yet. That’s a huge plus because it means he can just be depth this year, not necessarily a contributor.
If the Pirates go down this path, keep an eye on Smith. He was selected in the fourth round in the 2017 draft by current Pirates assistant GM Steve Sanders, and Cherington was in Toronto to oversee his rise to class AA. Smith was ranked as Baseball America’s 91st best prospect entering 2019, but he had a bad year and saw his stock plummet. Cherington pounced on Anthony Alford, another former top prospect with the Blue Jays whose stock had dropped, off waivers during the regular season because he saw what his potential upside could be. Smith could be another similar pickup.
OUTFIELDERS
OF Simon Muzziotti (PHI, 45), OF Seuly Matias (KCR, 40+), OF Tirso Ornelas (SD, 40+), OF Jhon Torres (STL, 40+), OF TJ Friedl (CIN, 40), OF Jhailyn Ortiz (PHI, 40)
This grouping is more quality over quantity. There are only six outfielders here, but there is very little filler. It wouldn’t shock me if all six of these guys reach the majors at some point.
Friedl played well in class AA in 2019 and very well could have reached the majors under normal circumstances in 2019. He has borderline elite speed, but doesn’t steal a lot of bases. He could be a project for first base, baserunning and outfield coach Tarrik Brock. Concerns with his arm could limit him to left field, but considering the amount of ground that needs to be covered at PNC Park there, that seems like a good fit.
Going by FanGraphs’ prospect board, the only minor leaguer with more raw power than Matias is Oneil Cruz. He is also just one of a dozen outfielders to have what they consider to have a 70-grade arm. Their concerns with him are on the mental and mechanical sides of the game, but in terms of pure talent, he might be the best prospect listed in this article.
Muzziotti is well-rounded and probably positioned to make the jump to the majors despite never playing in class AA. He doesn’t have a lot of power, but he is good at getting the bat to the ball. Mix in his defensive versatility to play all three outfield positions and he could be a good fourth outfielder in 2020, with a ceiling of maybe being a starter someday.