Stumpf's 10 Thoughts: Which non-tendered players would fit in with Pirates?

The non-tender deadline has come and gone, mostly with little fanfare for the Pirates. The moves that would have been considered surprising – designating Trevor Williams and Jose Osuna for assignment – were made last month. The only changes on the last day were non-tendering Clay Holmes and inking one-year deals with Erik Gonzalez, Michael Feliz and Jameson Taillon.

Even though they didn’t add much to the free agent market, it could be an opportunity for them to add to their roster.

While the Pirates are very likely not in a position to add many free agents this winter after COVID-19 made a “significant” impact on business, they should have enough to pick up a value free agent or two. Most arbitration players fit that billing, because they are generally lower cost and the Pirates inherit team control if they have less than six years of service time.

Here are four intriguing players who were non-tendered this week and could be a good fit for the Pirates.

CATCHER CURT CASALI

Two of the more pressing needs are catcher and in the outfield. The Pirates only have two backstops on the roster, with Michael Perez in line to backup Jacob Stallings. Perez can be optioned to the minors, so another catcher would add some much needed depth at the position.

Curt Casali seems to be the best on the market, slashing .224/.366/.500 with a decent glove in 31 games for the Reds. That strong offensive season might be the product of the smaller sample size, but he has been a roughly average hitter throughout his career. 

While his original arbitration projection was in the $2-million range, per MLB Trade Rumors, he’s a more than capable backup who should draw some interest across the league. It seems more likely the Pirates will find a couple guys to compete with Perez for the backup job, like they did last spring with Luke Maile and John Ryan Murphy.

OUTFIELDER DAVID DAHL

The outfield is definitely thin at the moment, with only four outfielders on the roster and the center field job appearing to be a competition between Anthony Alford and Jared Oliva. Bryan Reynolds could potentially move to center, opening up playing time for a corner outfielder.

One of the more surprising non-tenders was David Dahl of the Rockies. A former 10^th overall pick, Dahl suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him for weeks last year and then had shoulder surgery shortly after the season ended. Those ailments led to an abysmal .183/.222/.247 slash line over 99 plate appearances.

But before last year, Dahl posted an OPS+ between 110 and 113 in each of his three seasons, so he was a remarkably consistent, above average hitter. There’s always concern about taking a position player from Colorado because their stats are inflated by the thin air, but the quality of Dahl's contact suggests that he wasn’t just a product of his home field. If fully healthy, his speed and ability to read fly balls could make him a good fit for PNC Park’s cavernous left field.

PITCHERS CARLOS RODON AND ARCHIE BRADLEY

Carlos Rodon has been one of baseball’s biggest “what ifs” the last few years, flashing a solid fastball and wipeout slider, but only making a couple starts per season.

It might be time for him to throw in the towel and become a reliever. If he wants to stay a starter, the Pirates could be interested in looking for rotation depth if they trade multiple starting pitchers. If he gets hurt, he could go to the minors. If he finally puts together a full year, teams will line up at the deadline for the former third overall draft pick.

It’s a bit surprising that the Reds non-tendered Archie Bradley, since part of his appeal at the trade deadline was that he came with another year of team control. But even after posting a 1.17 ERA with his new team, they deemed that the $4.5-$5 million he would receive in arbitration was too much.

His fastball velocity dropped a tick this year to a 94.4 mph average, but it’s still more than enough to blow by hitters. Plus he’s one of the few late-inning relievers in the game who has a legitimate four-pitch arsenal. The Pirates could offer him the closer job, a role he had briefly while with the Diamondbacks, but not long enough to market himself as a closer this year. A short-term deal could make sense for both sides.

• As others have noted, there was a sharp increase in the number of one-year deals arbitration-eligible players signed Wednesday, 59 in total. While most of the players who sign in December are guys at risk of being let go, there were also a handful of good players taking guaranteed money, like Jorge Soler, Jose Berrios, Matt Olsen and Byron Buxton.

The commonality of those deals is they all seemed like pretty conservative amounts. MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration model is the best in the business, and they offered three different models based on how arbiters weigh the shortened season. If these deals are any indication, the lower projections seem like the safest bets.

For the Pirates, Feliz and Gonzalez were on the fringe, and Taillon missed all of last season, so he didn’t have any negotiating power for a raise. There’s hardly a surprise here.

• Speaking of Taillon’s contract, his rehab -- and his new mechanics -- look to be going really well:

He has one arbitration year remaining, and since raises are based off of the previous year’s salary, it won’t cost much, maybe in the range of $5 million if he does well.

I don’t see a team ever really giving up top prospects to acquire Taillon because of his injury history, so at that price, an extension might be worth exploring. Something in the range of 3 years, $25 million? Taillon gets guaranteed money, the Pirates keep a veteran pitcher for when that wave of young pitching gets promoted around 2023.

• I’m viewing keeping Gonzalez as an insurance plan in case Adam Frazier gets traded. The only other middle infielders on the 40-man roster are Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Oneil Cruz and Rodolfo Castro. Of that group, Newman and Tucker had terrible campaigns last season, Cruz might not be able to handle shortstop in the majors and Castro hasn’t played a game above Class A. Take Frazier out of the mix and there isn’t a lot in the majors there. Gonzalez is a replacement level player, which is fine as a backup.

The middle infield looks promising in the future. Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Castro, perhaps even Cruz if he can play shortstop. But unless Newman bounces back or Tucker breaks out, 2021 could be rough up the middle, especially without a clear center fielder.

• Feliz is one of the few players to take a pay cut while going through the arbitration process, with a source telling me his one-year deal is for $1 million, down from the $1.1 million he signed for last year. He was a fringe roster decision, especially after making only three appearances last season because of a forearm injury.

The bullpen is experiencing some pretty heavy turnover, and while his results haven’t been great in Pittsburgh, he seems to be the type of guy who will take to Oscar Marin’s ideologies. Feliz certainly pitched better once he ditched the two-seamer, as I wrote for Bucs Dugout last year shortly before I joined DK Pittsburgh Sports, and batters have a hard time hitting him when he throws it up in the zone.

From FanGraphs, here are his contact rates for his fastball based on where he throws it:

Will Feliz ever be great? No, but he could at the very least be middle relief depth for a rebuilding club. If he puts together a good season, they might be able to flip him for a prospect. That’s worth keeping him on the roster.

• Will Craig was outrighted to Indianapolis this week, and since he doesn’t have enough service time to declare himself a free agent, the Pirates are able to hang on to him.

The new regime got a good, long look at him this year in spring training and in the Altoona, Pa. satellite camp. The Pirates opted into the league-wide program that shared data and video of players in camp, and no team jumped on him as a waiver claim.

He is a solid defender at first and can play a corner outfield spot in a pinch, but he’s never had that big power year, maxing out with a .448 slugging percentage in Altoona in 2018. He’s 26 and will get another look, but 2021 is a make or break year for him. Teams aren’t going to spend a roster spot on a first baseman who can’t hit major-league pitching, even if he won a minor-league Gold Glove.

• The winter meetings are next week but it’s going to be all virtual, so don’t expect it to be nearly as busy as last year, when there was a major signing every day.

It might not be that busy at all, actually. There’s been barely any buzz surrounding the top free agents available and the trade market seems dormant. Most of the discussion over the last month has been around who might or might not be non-tendered.

That said, this isn’t going to be a complete dud. Something will get done. It might be just a handful of teams rather than last year when just about everyone completed a transaction. In a blind leap of faith, I’ll say the Mets make the splash, and it’s for outfielder George Springer.

• As for the Pirates, right now, it looks like it’s going to be a quiet winter meetings again. That doesn’t mean it will be unproductive.

Ben Cherington used the winter meetings last year to start to lay framework for the eventual Starling Marte trade. That took a long time to complete, but it eventually netted two stud prospects and the international money to sign a third.

So prepare your favorite trade talk jargon -- personally, I’m a fan of “kicking the tires” -- because we’ll probably hear Joe Musgrove and Frazier’s name pop up, like we did during the August trade deadline, but I’d be surprised if they actually complete a big trade next week. Far more likely that there will just be some framework set for a deal either later this month or January.

• On Nov. 20, Cherington was asked about the Pirates taking a player in the Rule 5 draft and responded, “If we decide that we want to do something there, we’ll have to open up another spot.”

Well, they have a spot open now with Holmes gone. I doubt they will sign a major-league free agent or make a waiver claim within the next week to fill it.

They’ll take someone during the final day of the meetings, Dec. 10.

• The roster sits at 39 players at the moment. Of that group, only 20 of them had an at-bat or faced a batter during the 2019 major-league season. Considering this wasn't a complete tear down or rebuild, that’s a pretty significant roster turnover for a little over a calendar year. There will be more changes before spring training gets underway. Many of those new additions are young players and prospects.

That’s the direction this team needs to go.