Mound Visit: The many whiffs of Polanco

When I first started to take notes for a Gregory Polanco based Mound Visit before the holidays, I planned to start the piece off with, “Well, at least he has his health.”

Then he fractured his right wrist, cutting his winter ball season short. Whoops. He’ll be ready for spring training in February, but yeah, not exactly sure what Polanco has if he is hurt.

So much of the discussion around Polanco the past few years, and really most of his tenure with the Pirates, has been centered around his health. The belief was the if he could just stay upright, he could finally tap into his potential, even after several shortened seasons.

We saw some of that promise shine through in 2020. He finished in the top five percent of hitters  in average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and top seven percent in hard hit rate (51.6%). He fielded his position better than he had in years, was an effective base runner and actually made it through a whole season without a baseball-related injury.

And none of that mattered.

All of those positive signs and metrics were completely nullified by his inability to hit the dang ball. He finished with -1 WAR, per Baseball Reference, the worst on the team and sixth-lowest in baseball. He had a horrendous .153 batting average and 45 OPS+. In his 174 plate appearances, he had more strikeouts (65) than total bases (51).

Blame the whiffs. According to Baseball Savant, Polanco swung the bat 386 times last year and came up empty 166 times. That’s 43% of his cuts. FanGraphs’ data on whiffs are a little different because they count foul tips as contact, but out of the 300 batters who had at least 100 plate appearances last year, Polanco finished dead last in contact rate with 59%.

Here is every single pitch Polanco whiffed at last year, by type and location:

Generally speaking, this is what a lot of whiff profiles would look like for hitters in 2020. The whiffs against fastballs are up in the zone or higher. The whiffs against sliders and curves are mostly waste and chase pitches. What’s different is the number of dots on that chart. 

After all, he was the only player to finish in the top-five for most whiffs against fastballs (87) and curveballs (23). It adds up fast.

There really is no other way to cut it. Polanco didn’t just fail to catch up with velocity or see more breaking pitches or was just rusty. He was bad. Really bad. He was challenged with Major League pitching and just couldn’t hit it.

And he’s going to be the opening day right fielder.

Yes, for all of the Pirates’ talk of meritocracy and competition for playing opportunities, Polanco has been given a pass. Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton have repeatedly said that he will be the right fielder in 2021. Call it a perk to having an $11.6 million salary and being one of only four true outfielders on the 40-man roster.

It looks like this will be Polanco’s last year with the team, though. He has two club options remaining, but after back-to-back terrible years, what motivation is there for the Pirates to pick those up? If he bounces back and has a good season, he’ll get traded. If he doesn’t, they’ll exercise the buyout at the end of the year. 

Oneil Cruz and Travis Swaggerty could both reach the majors this year, and either could be a viable option in right field. Shelton and Cherington like the positive energy Polanco brings to the clubhouse, but that isn’t worth an eight-figure salary by itself. It’s hard to imagine any way Polanco is with the Pirates in 2022, and unless he turns it around, his future in the majors might be in jeopardy.

He isn’t that far removed from being good. In 2018 he slugged .499 and had a 128 OPS+, anchoring the heart of the order for a team that finished above .500. Those stats are even a bit  misleading because he got off to a slow start. He played a 130 games that year and had a .937 OPS over his final 65 contests played. He was a legitimate threat.

And when a pitcher left a fastball down the middle of the plate like this, they paid for it:

That was Polanco’s 23rd and final home run of 2018, coming on Sept. 3. Four days later he tried to slide into second base and his career changed. Physically, he’s about as good now as he possibly could be following that injury. Again, when he made contact, he hit the snot out of it. He just came up empty way, way too often.

Let’s take a look at a Polanco swing in September of last year. It’s another fastball right down the pipe, but this time, he fans:

He just doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. It was a hitter’s count and a one-run game, but just studying his body language, you would think he was on the defensive. Shelton said many times last year about how he wants his players to take aggressive swings, but never really laid out what exactly an aggressive swing looks like. Well, I can tell you what it doesn’t look like, and it’s that whiff from Polanco.

He’s tense up there. He’s batting like he knows he’s hitting a buck-fifty. Top to bottom, it’s just bad.

Let’s focus on the bottom, specifically his front leg. Back in 2018, Polanco had a small leg kick, and while we saw it at times in 2020, he mostly opted for a quick tap or just a turn instead. I’ll admit I haven’t seen a lot of Polanco’s winter ball swings, but in this walk-off home run he hit last month, there was a kick:

Here’s a side-by-side look of three of his swings, one from 2018 and one from 2020:

If you’re looking for straws to grasp at, that might be one. It might be a sign that he is reverting back to his old mechanics. Something to watch for next year.

But that might not be the main problem with his footwork. Polanco is a toe tapper while waiting for the pitch to be thrown. It’s a timing mechanism. When he’s in a groove, there’s almost a rhythm to those bounces with his front foot and his upper body movements. The heel also doesn’t touch the dirt.

Compare the footwork on those two swings I showed earlier. In 2018, the heel doesn’t touch, and he has already started his load when the pitcher starts his delivery. In 2020, his heel is hitting the ground during the toe taps. His timing is off and he swings flatfooted:

I’m a firm believer that a good swing is built from the ground up, but we really can’t know for certain if this footwork is contributing to Polanco’s timing problems or if it is just a symptom of those problems. One thing is for sure, he can’t be caught flatfooted on 94 mph pitches down the pipe if he wants to keep his job.

Polanco is the last remaining member of a Pirates playoff team. He has had stretches of being a really good hitter, but even more periods filled with injuries and struggles. His eighth season with the Pirates will probably be his last, and it will almost certainly be an unceremonious exit.

For the first time in years, Polanco was able to focus on just baseball this winter rather than rehab, the wrist injury notwithstanding. Maybe something clicked in the Dominican. Maybe he’ll get his timing back, clean up his footwork and start making contact more regularly. Those whiffs last year were more than just timing issues. He has to find a way to rectify them, because we’re nearing the last sip of coffee.

Special thanks to @piRatesanalysis for video editing help.