The Steelers aren't guaranteed any win over the Browns just because they almost beat them with several starters taking a week off on Sunday.
There's still the matter of the Steelers' offense returning to form for the playoffs. If it doesn't, these playoffs could turn into the more embarrassing version of the 2018 loss to the Jaguars.
The best way for the Steelers to avoid that happening is Ben Roethlisberger doing what he did for most of this season, and picking at the weaknesses the Browns have made obvious in both games against the Steelers this season.
Roethlisberger didn't light up the Browns when they met in October. He finished completing 14 of 22 passes for just 162 yards and a single touchdown.
But he did what was needed to open up the offense so the Steelers could pour on their 38-7 win.
That involved hitting targets deeper down the field. Doing so allowed for big plays for the Steelers, but also for other opportunities in the offense to open up as the Browns started to respect Roethlisberger's deep passing game.
And it didn't take several shots, just a few, as he only hit three passes beyond ten yards against the Browns:
But in those three targets beyond 20 yards, Roethlisberger, Roethlisberger completed all three attempts for more than 80 yards and a touchdown.
That game was also the last time James Conner rushed for over 100 yards.
But look at what Roethlisberger exploited in that game to open that up. You can see the Browns go into a single-high safety look with eight players in the box. As the Browns focus on flooding underneath passes and the potential of the run, Chase Claypool gets single coverage deep down the field for Roethlisberger to target, leading to a big play:
The Browns couldn't commit to so much defensive help underneath with Roethlisberger torching them for even three big plays.
The same blueprint existed for Mason Rudolph in the Steelers' 24-22 loss on Sunday.
What opened the door for the Steelers' offense to start putting up points, even with a backup quarterback, was Rudolph's big passes downfield:
Rudolph also completed three passes beyond 20 yards downfield.
And you could see similar concepts in how Rudolph completed those passes. Again, look at how the Browns have a single-high safety and how it limits the Browns from giving help on deeper go routes. Both Claypool on the right side, and Dionate Johnson on the left, are allowed single coverage for Rudolph to choose between. He settles on Claypool, leading to the jump ball and the touchdown:
But again, this isn't about just throwing the deep ball.
That's just part of the steps Roethlisberger needs to take to beat the Browns and return the Steelers' offense to the balance it showed in the second half against the Colts and the team's first ten wins of the season.
The Browns may get back Denzel Ward for Sunday night's playoff game, but even if they do, they'll still be lacking in help over the middle part of the field. The Browns' linebackers Mack Wilson and Jacob Phillips are susceptible in coverage.
The Browns know that, and that's why they'll often flood the middle of the field with extra cornerbacks and safeties to help.
Just watch as both Wilson (No. 51) and Phillips (No. 50) both have zone assignments in the middle of the field, but neither cover Claypool or Vance McDonald in their hitch routes in the middle of the field:
Both look lost right?
That's what happens when you leave each of them on their own in the middle of the field. You can see the Browns back off both safeties on the above play, but a cornerback also dropped back for a cover 3 defense.
Here's another look when the Browns drop into a cover 2 defense, leaving Phillips and Porter Gustin in intermediate zone coverage that gets sliced in half by JuJu Smith-Schuster and exploited by Rudolph:
Even when it's not linebackers and linemen, the Browns have struggled when leaving players in single coverage over the middle of the field.
Here's when the Browns tried to leave Smith-Schuster in single coverage against slot cornerback M.J. Stewart and got chewed up for 26 yards. The Browns tried to disguise cover 2 by starting the play showing only one high safety, but eventually dropped back both safeties into deep coverage.
Doing so left Stewart alone against Smith-Schuster and Rudolph with an easy read:
And again, that's Rudolph.
If Roethlisberger hits just a few of those deep shots for big plays, the Browns will be forced to either leave receivers open for deep plays or leave their underneath defenders isolated. They cannot do both at the same time, and that's where Roethlisberger's experience and mastery can come into play.
It will be up to him to recognize the instances when the Browns commit their defense either for deep coverage or underneath. But if he does it often enough, there's no reason the Steelers can't pick this defense apart.
And again, if he does that, the rest of the Steelers' offense can open up. The Steelers rushed for 83 yards on 20 attempts Sunday and without Maurkice Pouncey to lead the group at center. If Roethlisberger opens up the offense, Conner could record his tenth game with over 100 rushing yards in his career, as 3 of those 9 games have come against the Browns.
But all of that starts with Roethlisberger doing what he has to, and picking at the obvious weaknesses in the Browns' defense.