It's no state secret that if you win the turnover battle, you greatly increase your chances of winning a football game.
A quick look at this year's NFL playoff field drives that point home. Of the 16 teams that finished the season with a positive turnover rate -- having forced more than they gave up -- 11 made the playoffs. Only three teams made it to the postseason with a negative turnover ratio, with all of those teams coming in the NFC -- Washington, the Rams and Bears.
If you force more turnovers than you give up, historically, you win 70 percent or more of the time. And the playoffs are no different. In the past two seasons, teams that won the turnover battle were 7-3, with 12 games finishing with the teams even in turnovers.
That's why, even though Mason Rudolph played well overall while subbing for Ben Roethlisberger in a 24-22 loss to the Browns to close out the season, Mike Tomlin mentioned several times that Rudolph's interception -- the only turnover of the game -- was the determining factor in that game.
"Our No. 1 task was to protect the ball. We largely did a good job of that," Tomlin said earlier this week. "But the turnover, and the turnover specifically where it happened, and the results were significant in terms of the outcome of the game. You play these guys you’ve got to take care of the football. You play anyone, particularly when you get into the January feel, the preservation and the safeguarding of the football is a big component of playing winning football."
Conversely, the Steelers didn't force a single turnover against the Browns in that loss last week, something they will try to rectify when they host the Browns Sunday night in an AFC Wild Card game at Heinz Field.
How big of a component are turnovers?
The Steelers led the NFL in forced turnovers in 2019 with 38, allowing them to post an 8-8 season despite not having Roethlisberger available for 14 games and turning the ball over 30 times themselves.
This season, the Steelers have thrived on turnovers. The Steelers finished second in the NFL with 27 forced turnovers -- only Miami had more -- and went 10-1 when they forced at least two in a game. They had four games this season in which they didn't force a single turnover, going 1-3 in those games.
"Our guys know that," said Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler. "They know that the four games we lost, we didn’t get a turnover in. The turnover to takeaway ratio has always been big in football ever since I have been playing a long time ago, it’s always been that way. We have to get the ball out. We have to get picks."
It might have felt to Butler like the Steelers lost all four of the games in which they didn't force a turnover this season because the one game they did win -- at Tennessee -- the Titans came storming back in the second half and the Steelers held on to win 27-24 despite being minus-3 in turnover ratio in that game.
But that's not the norm. Typically, if you lose the turnover battle by three, you lose the game. And that's magnified in the playoffs when you're facing good opponents.
The Steelers finished tied for third in turnover ratio this season at plus-9, while the Browns were plus-5. Cleveland had seven games this season in which it did not force a single turnover, going 3-4 in those games. The Browns were 5-0 in games in which they didn't turn the ball over themselves.
It seems like such a simple formula. But getting those turnovers -- hunting them -- can be tricky if you're also concerned about allowing big plays.
But winning the turnover battle also can be a critical factor in helping teams overcome some inadequacies of their own.
For example:
• The 2012 Ravens started the season 9-2, then stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their final five games to finish 10-6. But they caught fire in the postseason, beating the Colts, Broncos and Patriots before beating the 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Quarterback Joe Flacco gets a lot of credit for that. Flacco, who had completed just 59.7 percent of his passes for 3,817 yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions in the regular season, got hot in the playoffs. He threw 11 touchdown passes -- half as many as he had in the regular season -- against no interceptions during the four-game run. Flacco hadn't gone more than two games without an interception all season.
The Ravens also had what was still an above-average defense. The Ravens weren't dominant, but they allowed 21.5 points per game, good enough to tie for 12th in the league. What they did well, however, was take the football away, doing so 35 times in the regular season.
The Ravens had a 10-4 turnover ratio in the postseason.
• The 2011 Giants lost five of six games at midseason to fall to 7-7, but won their final two games to limp into the playoffs as a Wild Card at 9-7.
But, as Flacco would do the next season, Eli Manning got hot in the playoffs, throwing nine touchdown passes and just one interception in four playoff games.
Like the 2020 Steelers, that Giants team didn't run the ball particularly well. The Giants averaged just 89.2 yards rushing per game -- 32nd in the league -- but as the Ravens did in 2012, New York forced turnovers, posting 31 takeaways during the regular season.
The Giants had a 7-1 turnover ratio in the postseason.
• The 2015 Broncos overcame a season in which their quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler -- combined to throw 23 interceptions against just 19 touchdown passes with a defense that ranked fourth in points and first in yards allowed per game. They also forced seven turnovers against committing just three of their own in the postseason.
That included narrowly defeating the Steelers in the Divisional round, 23-16, when Steelers running back Fitzgerald Toussaint lost a fumble for the game's lone turnover with the Steelers leading 13-12 at the Denver 34 with 10 minutes remaining in the game.
So, even for a team such as the Steelers, who finished the season last in running the ball this season and stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their final five games, it's possible to win and win big in the playoffs -- if you take care of the football and take it away from the other team.
The Steelers need to look no farther than their two games against the Browns this season for proof. In the first meeting, they intercepted Baker Mayfield twice, returning one for a touchdown and didn't have a turnover of their own. They won that game at Heinz Field, 38-7.
In the rematch, they lost that turnover battle.
"I think what probably helped us the first game against those guys, Minkah (Fitzpatrick) intercepted a pass early and took it for a touchdown. Later on, when we got another interception from him, and that matter a lot," Butler said. "It kind of (messes) with the psyche of the team, the psyche of the quarterback.
"Who’s carrying the ball? If they put it on the ground and stuff like that. It always matters, especially in games like this," Butler said. "This game right here, all the cards are on the table. You don’t get a chance to make mistakes and make up for those mistakes the next week. It doesn’t happen. For us, we need to get turnovers, we need to get sacks. We need to get (Browns running back Nick Chubb) on the ground. There’s a lot of things we need to do going into this game, and that is part of it. (Turnovers) are a big part of it."