Tomlin, NFL coaches drawing increased scrutiny for fourth-down calls

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Watching the Steelers’ playoff game Sunday night, Kevin Kelley sat through the commercial break that bridged the third and fourth quarters hoping Mike Tomlin would go for it on a fourth-and-1 from the Pittsburgh 46-yard line. 

It was the start of the fourth quarter, and the Steelers had scored on their previous four possessions, including three touchdowns, cutting a 28-point first-quarter deficit against the Browns to 12. 

“You've got all the momentum, you’ve got the opponent backpedaling, so to speak, and then you choose not to take advantage of it,” Kelley said from his home in Little Rock, Ark. “I think they cost themselves pretty big in the game-winning-chance department.”

Kelley isn’t your typical NFL fan who wants his team to assume all the risk while he or she sits on the couch taking no responsibility. He’s a high school football coach. He’s won nine Arkansas state titles since 2003. 

And he almost never punts — just eight times in the last 17 years and not once over the past three seasons. 

“When I first went through it, I was a cast-out in the coaching fraternity,” Kelley said. “I was literally told I was making a mockery of the game by coaches. I was just trying to win.”

Two decades later, there are still no coaches as bold as Kelley, who also favors onside kicks after almost every score, but the football world is becoming more willing to go for it on fourth down and less tolerant of those not wanting to take risks.

In 2007, the first season of Tomlin’s tenure with the Steelers, NFL teams attempted to convert fourth-and-1s at a 44.6 percent clip in “close games” and fourth-and-2s at a 13.1 percent clip. This past regular season, those numbers soared to 62.3 percent and 26.4 percent, respectively. 

These stats do not include when clubs are well behind in the final minutes and there’s little consequence for failing to convert. “Close games,” as defined by Michael Lopez, the NFL’s director of data and analytics, means:

• All fourth-down attempts in the first two quarters.

• All fourth-down attempts in the third quarter with a point differential of 16 or less.

• All fourth-down attempts in the fourth quarter with a point differential of eight or less. 

“I think my general attitude and receptiveness has been more liberal,” Tomlin said Wednesday when asked how his view on fourth downs has changed. “But again, I make decisions based on what’s transpiring in stadiums, the flow of the game, how our units are playing, et cetera.”

Tomlin took a beating from some fans, and many within the analytics community, for punting on the fourth-and-1 near midfield. He also drew scorn for attempting to draw the Browns offside with his special-teams unit rather than his offense. (Defenses are more likely to jump when they think an opponent is going for it.) The Steelers were assessed a delay-of-game penalty. 

“It's inexcusable,” said Frank Frigo, co-founder of the sports data firm EdjSports. 

“It was very bad,” wrote Aaron Schatz, head of the analytics website Football Outsiders, in a text message. “The EdjSports model showed that Pittsburgh’s chance of winning dropped from 12.9% to 9.8% with that decision. Punting near midfield is almost always a mistake, but especially when losing in the fourth quarter.”

Jordan Berry’s punt reached the end zone for a touchback and the Browns responded with a six-play, 80-yard TD drive to take a 42-23 lead. 

“I mean, that's Coach's decision,” Ben Roethlisberer said after the 48-37 loss. “I was prepared to go for it. He said we were punting it. That was the end of the discussion.”

Tomlin’s choice was one of three major fourth-down calls during Wild Card Weekend that attracted plenty of attention.

Colts coach Frank Reich gambled on a fourth-and-goal from the Bills’ 4-yard line late in the second quarter only to see Philip Rivers’ pass in the end zone fall incomplete. The Bills drove the length of the field — aided by fourth-down offside penalty! — to score a touchdown. Instead of potentially heading to the locker room with a 13-7 lead, the Colts came away with no points and surrendered a late TD en route to a 27-24 loss.

Meanwhile, Titans coach Mike Vrabel punted on a fourth-and-2 from the Ravens’ 40, trailing by four points with 10:06 remaining. The Titans lost, 20-13. Frigo labeled it “one of the worst fourth-down calls of the (season).” 

“A lot of people look at fourth downs and paint them with a broad-brush stroke of ‘you need to be a little more aggressive and you’ll do a little bit better,’” Frigo said. “But the reason we focus so much on them is because they matter a ton. 

“The magnitude of these decisions is extraordinary given how often we can measure in a 10-percent win probability, a 15-percent win probability. Vrabel’s punt cost the Titans a -13.7 GWC (game winning chance). These decisions matter a lot and most coaches don’t understand them that well.”

ANALYTICALLY DRIVEN 

The Steelers, like every other NFL franchise, employs data-driven personnel to assist their coaching staff and management team. Pittsburgh, however, is never mentioned among the league’s most analytics-friendly clubs. 

Frigo speculates that former Carnegie Mellon University professor Karim Kassam, one of the “sharpest minds” in advanced metrics, left the Steelers in 2019 out of frustration following four years on the job. Kassam is now director of baseball research for the Twins after a short stint with Pittsburgh-based Duolingo, a language-learning website. 

“Where does the buy-in exist within a franchise?” Frigo said. “Does it exist with the GM? The coach? The owner?”

Analytics rarely was discussed in NFL orbit 12 years ago when Bill Belichick kept his Patriots’ offense on the field for a fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line, leading by six points in the fourth quarter of a nationally-televised game against the Colts. Tom Brady’s pass to Kevin Faulk was sniffed out by Indianapolis, which took over on downs and won the game. 

Belichick’s daring play was ridiculed, but those championing analytics saw the wisdom in the fourth-down attempt. Over time, data-driven proponents who already were making inroads in baseball and basketball, started to get a seat at the adult table in NFL organizations. 

The Eagles became one of the first teams to invest heavily in analytics, and in 2018 they celebrated a Super Bowl title thanks in part to the “Philly Special,” the fourth-down trick play that produced a touchdown against Belichick and the Patriots.

“I have not really had too much of a change of heart,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Wednesday regarding fourth-down attempts. “I think the older I get, maybe I get a little bit more challenge there about going for it. The percentages have been pretty good.” 

In fact, Reid has gone from conservative to aggressive on key fourth-down calls in the past three years, according to EdjSports findings. Having one of the game’s elite quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, certainly has aided in his transformation.

ESPN unveiled its first NFL analytics survey in September after polling 26 staffers from around the league. In almost every category, the Ravens and the Browns — the Steelers’ division rivals — finished either first or second. 

Which teams were the least analytically advanced? The Steelers ranked fifth on the list and the Chiefs were sixth.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh continues to earn high marks for incorporating data-driven research into game plans. 

“Coaches like Harbaugh, Reid, Reich, probably Kevin Stefanski of the Browns, they have a very clear criteria and they trust their analysts,” said Frigo, a former backgammon world champion who spent two decades working in commodities markets. “They know in certain situations these are the correct actions or incorrect actions that boost win probability and tend to follow them.”

As a new decade dawns, some might wonder if the Steelers are falling behind in the information race, especially now that all teams have access to the league’s player data-tracking figures. 

Like any innovative tool, it will have supporters and detractors who come well armed with talking points. In recent years, analytics-driven sites have launched Twitter accounts specifically tracking fourth-down choices.

Reich was lauded for his weekend decision to forgo a field-goal attempt, while Tomlin was buried for punting. Never mind that each result proved costly. 

Reid was asked about the increasing scrutiny coaches face regarding fourth-down calls. 

“That normally happens,” he said. “If you are receiving 50/50, you have coaches who would like to do it and coaches who do not. That is good for you guys (in the media), right? You can create a debate on which way to go. I like them when they work, right?”

CHANGES IN ATTITUDE? 

It’s not as though Tomlin ripened on the Woody Hayes coaching tree. He’s not afraid to take chances — and his Steelers converted on all three of their fourth-down tries Sunday night, including two that produced touchdowns. 

The Steelers cut the deficit to 35-23 with a Roethlisberger to JuJu Smith-Schuster TD pass on a fourth-and-goal from the 5. 

In his first season with the Steelers, Tomlin ranked third in the league on fourth-and-1 attempts (71.4 percent) in “close games.” This past year, Pittsburgh was 24th in that category at 46.7 percent, but ranked 10th in attempting to convert fourth-and-2s (33.3 percent). 

So you can imagine what was going through the mind of Kelley, the high school coach, as Tomlin sent out the punt unit for the fourth-and-1 at the Steelers’ 46 at the start of the fourth quarter. 

“As a fan, you think, ‘Dang, they should have gone for it,’ ” Kelley said. “When you’re me, you know they should have gone for it and you know they hurt their chances to win. I wasn’t like, ‘Dang it,’ but very calmly I was like, ‘Oh, you are killing yourself right here.’ ”

(In fairness to Tomlin, the Steelers’ rushing attack has been so putrid that running the ball was hardly a great option. His defense also had forced punts on the Browns’ previous three possessions.) 

Kelley said he’s met with people from seven or eight NFL organizations, including Belichick, to discuss his philosophies. He declined to name the others, but added the Steelers were not among them.   

“It’s very rare the analytics say to punt on fourth-and-1 — no matter where you are on the field,” Kelley added. “But especially at that time, down by 12 (points) in the fourth quarter, when possessions are limited. I understand what Coach Tomlin is thinking, or whoever is making that decision: We’ll pin them deep. If you do pin them inside the 5, there is a negative point expectation.”

Kelley makes it clear he has great respect for Tomlin, whose teams have won a Super Bowl title and played for another. The Steelers’ coach has never had a losing season in guiding Pittsburgh to nine playoff appearances. 

But other analytics advocates are mystified by Tomlin’s overall approach to fourth downs. 

“He has been a bit of a head scratcher for us,” Frigo said. “Sometimes, he looks like he really gets it, but other times, like this past weekend, he clearly doesn’t. He does it in a very fly-by-the-seat-of-the-pants kind of way.”

In its annual rankings, EdjSports rated Tomlin as the NFL’s eighth-best coach, but his overall position was hurt by finishing 17th in the site’s Critical Call Index. 

“He doesn’t take a super scientific approach to things,” Frigo said. “He had the ammo for awhile. He had the right analyst (in Kassam), the right tools. I just don’t think he’s listened to the level he should have. 

“He is just a mixed bag. He doesn’t have a clear criteria for his actions. With Tomlin it’s almost like, ’well, how am I feeling today?’ He puts a little more artistry than objectivity into his decisions.”

The Steelers’ third consecutive late-season slide led to changes in their assistant ranks Thursday. Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner was among the assistants purged in wake of the playoff loss to the Browns. 

But will next season bring a different philosophy with critical calls such as whether to go for it on fourth down as long as Tomlin remains in charge? Will the head coach give more credence to suggestions from the Steelers’ analytically minded staffers? 

Or, will he continue to make those big decisions on “feel” and gut reaction in the moment?

What we do know is Mahomes won’t be a free agent anytime soon.