In about a month, the Pirates will (hopefully) be in Bradenton, Fla. for spring training.
So the clock is ticking for a potential Joe Musgrove trade.
Musgrove has been the center of trade talks since the August trade deadline, and while the Pirates like the right-hander, he has only two years of team control remaining and the club is in a rebuild (even if they don’t want to admit it). At this point, he’s more valuable as a trade chip.
“When we have guys that might be at a point in their career where we have less time with them potentially, and there's an opportunity to add more talent that we have longer time with, those are the kinds of things that we're going to have to be willing to do,” Ben Cherington said the day of the Josh Bell trade. Shortly after, he added that the Bell trade “likely won't be the last one. There will probably be more.”
On Friday, the Pirates and Musgrove settled on a $4.45 million salary for the upcoming year, avoiding arbitration. That was nearly identical to one of MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration predictions, so the amount isn’t surprising. It does, however, guarantee a salary. A team acquiring him knows they won’t have to go through arbitration. That’s a key selling point.
Need proof? Musgrove came to the Pirates in the Gerrit Cole trade, which was finalized the day after the Pirates and Cole agreed upon a 2018 salary.
So with time running out, which teams make the most sense for Musgrove?
BLUE JAYS
Just to recap the recent history with these two clubs: Cherington was the vice-president of baseball operations with the Blue Jays and oversaw their farm system. Assistant general manager Steve Sanders ran the draft for the Blue Jays for three years. They know these prospects extremely well. Musgrove was very nearly traded to the Blue Jays during the August trade deadline, and Cherington was reportedly very interested in catching prospect Alejandro Kirk.
Not much has changed for the Pirates since those August negotiations, but it has for the Blue Jays. They fell a game short of finishing second in the American League East, saddling them with the lowest playoff seed and a quick October exit. Just one more win could have given them a much more favorable seeding, which could have sparked a playoff run.
They got deep into talks with free agent closer Liam Hendricks and infielder DJ LeMahieu, but couldn’t close the deal. In LeMahieu’s case, they reportedly offered him a much better annual salary (albeit for two years and $12 million less than what he got with the Yankees), so at this point, they have to wonder if they can make a splash in free agency this year.
That leaves the trade market. They could go to the Reds, who have fielded offers on Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, but they almost got Musgrove just a few months ago. Unless they feel they can’t get a deal done with the Pirates, it makes the most sense to continue to focus on Musgrove.
If the Blue Jays are still looking for an infielder after missing out on LeMahieu, Adam Frazier is still on the market. A package deal would obviously bring more minor-league talent back to the Pirates, but let’s keep it simple with just Musgrove for now.
Mock Trade: Joe Musgrove to the Blue Jays for catcher Alejandro Kirk and right-hander Alek Manoah
This proposal is pretty straightforward. The Blue Jays like Musgrove. The Pirates like Kirk. There’s a good foundation for a deal. To get this trade across the finish line, the Blue Jays include Manoah, their 2019 first-round pick. Sanders’ draft team was high on his potential and took him with their first pick, even though he spent most of his collegiate career as a reliever. He may be destined for the bullpen again, but his fastball ramps up to the upper-90s and he has a plus slider. He would probably excel in that role. And if he can develop a changeup, he could be a starter.
ANGELS
Free agent starter Trevor Bauer listed the Angels as one of his top destination choices in a recent Youtube video where he discussed his free agency. If the Angels do get him, they could be satisfied with their rotation and back out of any Musgrove talks.
If Musgrove is just the backup plan, then a potential trade becomes a lot stickier. With each passing day, it is looking more and more likely that Bauer (and other top free agents) will still be without a team when the calendar turns over to February. After making the Starling Marte trade in late January last year, Cherington said it was important for him to know where the roster stood going into February and that he had effectively set a deadline for when that trade should be done.
There’s no word if Cherington feels the same way this year -- revealing that information could only hurt Musgrove’s trade value -- but it would seem safe to assume that he isn’t eager to potentially make a deal so close to the start of spring training, especially with a clubhouse leader like Musgrove. Building a player-centric culture is important to this organization, and trading away a leader during training camp would be a blow to those efforts.
With the Athletics losing Hendricks and the Astros in flux, the AL West looks up for grabs. The Angels have a strong core of position players, but need more pitching. Musgrove would be a significant addition. At some point, the Angels need to try to get Mike Trout back into the playoffs.
Mock Trade: Right-hander Joe Musgrove to the Angels for outfielder Brandon Marsh
This might be a bit of an overpay on the Angels’ part, but looking at their outfield, they already have Trout, Justin Upton and Jo Adell, one of the top prospects in the game. Marsh is the second best minor-leaguer in the Angels’ farm system and was ranked 38th overall in the midseason update to Baseball America’s top 100, but there isn’t a clear place for him.
He’s a legitimate center fielder with plus hitting and fielding tools. As a bonus, he is close to being Major League ready, so he could make an immediate impact at a position of need, both now and in the future.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
The Pirates were connected to Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi in a rumor last week. The Red Sox are desperately looking for Major League pitching, and if their proposal is Benintendi for Musgrove, that deal makes no sense for the Pirates. The Pirates need controllable players, not a player with two years remaining before free agency, like Musgrove.
That deal would be a lateral move at best, and given Benintendi’s struggles the last two years, possibly a net loss. The Red Sox farm system is pretty thin, and it looks like they are treating 2021 as a bridge year rather than seriously competing. If they have a change of heart, a package of Triston Casas or Jeter Downs and a lottery ticket prospect could get the job done, but it seems very unlikely that they would be willing to do that.
The Yankees bolstered their rotation depth this week by signing Corey Kluber, but they could be looking for one more starter. Their first choice is free agent Masahiro Tanaka, but if the luxury tax is a concern, Musgrove’s smaller salary hit could make him an appealing option. However, it’s worth noting the Yankees inquired about Jameson Taillon earlier this winter rather than Musgrove. They might need to trade someone with a Major League salary, like Clint Frazier, to lower the luxury tax hit.
The Cubs are looking for a lower salary starter after handing Yu Darvish off to the Padres. The Phillies have focused on rebuilding their bullpen this offseason, but they could also benefit from another starter. The Twins could resign Jake Odorizzi or Rich Hill, but for now they have a hole in their rotation.
I’ll refrain from making a mock trade here because we’re probably too deep into the offseason for a new, serious contender to emerge. Never count out those “mystery teams,” but the Angels and Blue Jays have been interested in Musgrove for much longer. They are still the front runners.