When Ben Cherington took over as Pirates general manager during the 2019 offseason, his three best trade chips were Starling Marte, Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove.
Over the course of the past year, all three have been dealt. Marte went to the Diamondbacks last January, Bell to the Nationals on Christmas Eve and Musgrove to the Padres Monday.
The Pirates’ best path to contention, however long that may be, will be to have those trades hit and yield quality Major League players. Talking about the Marte trade last year, Cherington has said the Pirates will always need to assume risk with every player they acquire. One risk they haven't shied away from is acquiring younger players who have more unexplored upside, but a far greater risk of fizzling out.
The return in each of those trades headlined by at least one 19-year-old player. In the Musgrove deal, it is centerfielder Hudson Head. With Bell, it was right-hander Eddy Yean. The Marte trade brought back two 19-year-old prospects, shortstop Liover Peguero and right-hander Brennan Malone.
All told, of the nine players the Pirates got back in those trades, seven are 22 or younger. That’s not to mention the Pirates made a late surge in the international free agent market last year and then made one of the largest splashes during the opening of the new signing period Monday, inking 16-year-old outfielder Shalin Polanco to a $2.35 million deal.
So if the Pirates have to assume risk when acquiring players, what makes age the one the Pirates are most willing to take? Well, there’s a couple ways to answer that.
“We don't set out to just bring in teenagers,” Cherington said during a Zoom call with local reporters Tuesday afternoon. “That's not the goal when we talk about trades and when we're looking at players. We're trying to incorporate every piece of information, including the risk. Certainly, the younger they are, the further away they are. That does represent some risk, no doubt. There's risk, there’s talent, there’s taking a subjective evaluation on the scouting side, there's performance analysis, there’s character, there's health. There's just general outside, relative to that risk. We try to bake all that together into a stew and see where it leads us.”
However they are assessing the risk, it’s undeniable that the farm system has seen an infusion of talent over the past year. MLB Pipeline has not yet done a 2021 update for prospects, but at the moment, four of the five players they received in the Musgrove trade are ranked in the club’s top 30. Head is sixth overall, 21-year-old left-hander Omar Cruz is 18th, 20-year-old, switch-hitting catcher Edny Rodriguez is 20th and right-handed reliever David Bednar is 30th. The only one who missed the cut was Drake Fellows, a sixth-round pick in 2019 who has yet to pitch in a professional game.
Of that top 30 prospects list, 13 have been acquired by Cherington over the past year, including six of the top 10.
“We think it’s improved,” Cherington said of the farm system. “We’re excited about the players we’ve been able to add going back to last offseason. Improvement is partly adding, of course, and it’s partly developing and improving. We’ve got to be just as committed to both. Frankly, we just can’t ever stop. We’ve got to keep doing that.”
Developing has been a lot harder during the pandemic.
During the regular season, a small collection of prospects were able to train at the Pirates’ alternate site in Altoona, Pa. They had a larger group of players than usual in the instructional league in October, but outside of that and winter ball for some, players haven’t been able to get group coaching since the pandemic started.
The Pirates had struggled to develop their top prospects in the final years of the previous regime. There are two reasons for optimism that will change.
The first is the player development group has seen significant changes this offseason. John Baker has taken over as director of coaching and player development, and Josh Hopper will oversee the pitchers as the pitching development coordinator.
The second is Cherington is encouraged by the conversations the group has had this year. The talk is still about getting better. About how to help a pitcher design a throwing program. A hitter move better. To keep conversations about the player.
“It’s just faith in the group that we have and the way they’re thinking about it,” Cherington said. “Commitment to figuring out how to get better at that all the time, every single day, being open-minded about it, not trying to pretend like we have all the answers. Searching for the answers, not pretending we have ‘em. If we have the right people with that mindset and stay in that mindset, we’ll keep getting better at it. We won’t ever be perfect. We’ll keep getting better at it. Over time, that will help our players.”
For a club like the Pirates, their only path to success will be through their farm system. Embarking on a true rebuild, it makes sense to acquire players who are a few years away, as the Pirates themselves will need time to become competitive again.
As time goes on, the strategy of how the Pirates acquire their players could change, but the goal will remain the same.
“[There’s] some knowledge that we're gonna acquire players with the kind of upside to have a chance to impact games in Pittsburgh," Cherington said. "Not just be big leaguers, but impact games in Pittsburgh. We're gonna have to be willing to assume some risk in those (free agency, draft, international) markets to get access to that kind of impact or upside. It's all a big stew, and I'm sure that, over time, we will acquire older, more advanced players sometimes, too, in these deals.”
More from Cherington
• So what's up next for the Pirates this offseason? Adam Frazier has drawn trade interest, but there are still many middle infield options still available in free agency, which seems to be stalling his market.
Cherington said he would like to add to the group and that the team has "oars in the water." That could mean adding via free agency or trade. He brought up pitching depth -- both starting and bullpen -- and outfield as areas in particular to address. He also brought up catcher, as the Pirates only have two on the roster, Jacob Stallings and Michael Perez.
There's also the mindset to sign a veteran to a short-term deal and then trade him for prospects at the deadline. The Pirates have explored that, but it's a bit easier said than done.
"Players are really smart and certainly free agents are really smart," Cherington said. "They know what's going on. They know if they sign and for whatever reason, the team is not in contention at the deadline and they're performing well, it probably means their names [will come] up in a trade. I think most guys are prepared for that and we're honest about it. There's no reason to hide that. So, yes, we we consider that."
There should be some money to spend. The trades of Musgrove and Bell have lowered the Pirates' opening day payroll to approximately $41 million, a steep decline from the approximately $55 million payroll the Associated Press reported before the pandemic.
Despite the pandemic impacting the Pirates' financially in 2020, that cut in payroll was not financially driven, but rather a product of trying to acquire more young talent.
"Coming into the offseason, there was no need to move money," Cherington said. "We could have just kept the same roster and gone into 2021. There was no need to move payroll for the sake of moving payroll. There was no request to do that. We could have kept the same payroll. Because we traded some players, my expectation is that we would look for ways to reallocate that money in ways that we felt helped us the most and were consistent with what we’re trying to build toward."
• As the Pirates continue to trade away their more prominent Major Leaguers, it raises the question for how to evaluate manager Derek Shelton. Their MLB roster is going to be lean for the near future, which will lead to losses that aren't necessarily his fault. So how will the Pirates gauge his performance?
When asked, Cherington said he gave the same answer during Shelton's introductory press conference:
"How do we continue to move toward great coaching, great environment, great preparation, process. How do we learn every day and keep getting better? That’s the simple answer. Of course, when the outcomes aren’t going your way, easier said than done. Nobody likes that. We faced some of that in 2020, for sure. I think we both learned from that and grew closer through it."
• Cherington has hesitated to use the word "rebuild" while describing the Pirates' direction, opting to say the club is "building." Building for now, building for the future. On Tuesday, he brought up how the Padres didn't let up in their player development, which is why they had the minor-league talent to acquire not only Musgrove, but also Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, while also hanging onto their top prospects.
The goal is to also be building, but can we finally, finally call this a true rebuild? Because it is one.
“I’ve seen different words used to describe what we’re doing,” Cherington said. “It honestly matters less to me than what we’re doing, and that is just that we need to commit. We need to commit to adding talent and developing it. Whatever you want to call that, that’s what we’re going to do.”
• And the million dollar question to close: Does Cherington have assurances that he'll be given the time for this team to be properly developed?
Cherington says he will.
“I think Bob [Nutting] and Travis [Williams] and I are really aligned on what we’re working towards," Cherington said. "Certainly, in baseball operations and across the organization, we’ve had a lot of conversation about who we want to be, who we want the Pirates organization to be and what we need to do to drive that. I think it’s something we talk a lot about in the leadership group, not only in baseball operations but on the business side, certainly with Bob also, so I feel really good with how we’re aligned on all that. It’s up to us in baseball operations to execute on that vision, at least in terms of the on-field part of it. That’s what we’re going to focus our energy on.
"That job is challenging enough. I choose not to worry about what that means for me down the road or what the time is. We’re just going to focus our energy on doing that job as best we can, have confidence that if we do that we’re going to get to a point where we’re going to get to a different position with our team – looking to add, not make trades like [but] go the other way. But there’s a time for that.”