Welcome to DK Sports Radio and a new Daily Shot of Pirates, my every-weekday, half-hour program on the local baseball franchise. Today's episode: If Major League Baseball follows through, per national reports, on de-juicing the ball for 2021, it'll have virtually zero impact in Pittsburgh.
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THE TRANSCRIPT
There will be fewer home runs hit in Major League Baseball this summer. Take that to the bank. And no, I'm not just talking about the local franchise, funny person.
Word emerged yesterday via several national reports that MLB and Rawlings, the manufacturer of the balls that get used in games, will be working together this season to ensure that the ball doesn't zip out of ballparks the way it had been the last three years. I see this as great news. Because my goodness, has baseball gotten boring. It's hard to describe to someone who's just a casual baseball fan, you know, what could conceivably make a home run boring in the moment? We're all raised on the notion that there's nothing bigger in baseball than the home run. So more of them, how could that possibly be bad?
Well, the reason for that is just as there were record figures set for home runs in the 2019 season -- 6,776, or 6.6% of all plate appearances, same ratio as the 2020 season -- we also saw records set for strikeouts. So you were either putting that ball over the fence, or you're going back and taking a seat, and there's nobody on base. Ever. No in-between. Coaches were coaching batters to have launch angle, uppercut, swing upward, swing upward, hit the ball out, hit the ball out. Why? Because they knew there was a little bit of extra pop on the baseball. They knew it would go out. Even if you didn't have a history of hitting home runs, there was a chance. But they also struck out a ton because they weren't taking level swings, they weren't taking something off the swing just to make contact.
And it was boring, boring, boring, boring. When you see nobody on bases, it's a different approach that you have as the viewer. If there's runners at the corners, one out, you're thinking of all the different things that can happen. You're thinking about a steal, a sacrifice, a hit-and-run, defensive strategies, how to pitch to them, whether or not you should get another pitcher, should you pinch-hit. You're not thinking about any of these things when there's nobody aboard. So you're just not going to be as engaged. It's boring, all or nothing.
All kinds of different steps were considered along the way, like the elimination of the shift. That'd be kind of tough. Telling managers where they can or can't put a defensive player in the field ... where do you draw the line with that? Can you no longer bring your center fielder in between second and short, for example, when you're down to the final out of the game? See what I'm saying? It's it's hard to legislate that. Could you do things with the fences? I mean, that's really expensive. And it affects the fans as well. Could you do the humidor? Sure. And actually, there's going to be five additional teams in the majors using one as part of this plan.
That's that's where this is right now. MLB had a committee after the 2019 season do a study on the baseballs because they got tired of hearing and reading everybody saying that the balls were juiced. And the committee did find, in fact, that the balls had less drag on them than they had in previous seasons. And that contributed significantly to that record home run total. So instead of changing something, apparently -- and this isn't something MLB's announced yet -- MLB is going to work with Rawlings in Costa Rica at the factories and get the baseballs where they were in 2017, 2016, whatever. It'll make a difference. Anytime there's ever been an adjustment with baseballs, you have seen a significant rise or drop in home runs. In 2014, the last time something like this was tried, there was almost a 25% drop in home runs.
You picture that now. It's going to change so much, not just the home run totals. But you watch these hitting coaches aren't going to be talking about launch angle nearly as much when their guys aren't hitting the ball out. Even though it's just 3 feet of estimated difference in the ball's travels, it'll make a big impact.
Just not here.
Back to my opening, right?
Your Pittsburgh Pirates last year hit 59 home runs in 60 games. That was the second-lowest in the majors. They also had a .641 OPS that was dead last. So will this matter? Will they now be able to even the playing field because they weren't hitting home runs, and now nobody will hit home runs? Nah, because the Pirates also had a .284 on-base percentage in 2020, and that was dead last, as well. So the offense is going to be what the offense is going to be. Maybe it minimizes the specific loss of Josh Bell if any of us were still fantasizing he bell could hit 37 home runs this coming season the way he did in 2019? Colin Moran is probably going to be your top slugger on the team. And again, that would be OK if anyone else could otherwise get on base. They didn't do that. And they didn't do that largely because Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier and really almost everybody else let them down so badly on offense. If those guys get their act together ...
Yeah, I can't even go there. It was the worst offense in baseball and it's not going to be markedly better. Or at least, you know, better enough to be significant. But hey, this was all a fun topic while it lasted, right?