Champagnie to test NBA Draft process

It's not official yet, but Justin Champagnie may have one foot out the door.

He announced via Instagram that he would be testing the NBA Draft process Tuesday afternoon:

Champagnie finished the season becoming Pitt's first ever player named First Team All-ACC after he was the only ACC player to average a double-double on the season with 18 points per game, second-best, and lead the conference in rebounding with 11.1 rebounds per game. He's also the first Pitt Panther to average a double-double on the season since DeJuan Blair did in 2008-2009.

“Justin had a terrific season and put himself in position to explore this opportunity,” said Jeff Capel. “I have been impressed with Justin’s development and his desire to be coached since his arrival at Pitt. I believe he is only scratching the surface of the player he can become. We will continue to work with him and his family throughout the NBA Draft process.”

Testing the NBA Draft process does not mean Champagnie is definitely leaving Pitt. But it does show he's weighing his options. Late season NBA mock drafts projected him as an early second round pick. Champagnie's 'testing the process' means that he'll explore what teams are saying about him behind closed doors and gauge how high his interest will be on draft day.

There's no date set yet for the NBA Draft, but Champagnie's decision to come back may hinge on how likely he sees his chances to be selected in the first round. The payouts on contracts from rookies first round and second round make a big difference.

For example, the Grizzlies drafted TCU guard Desmond Bane with the final pick of the first round last year, which got him a four-year deal making $1.94M in his first year and $9.9M total from the contract. That number is a big jump up from the the next pick in the draft and the first selection of the second round, Stanford guard Tyrel Terry. His contract was set to only make $6.52M over his first four seasons.

It's also worth mentioning that Bane, like Champagnie is now, also tested the NBA waters as a junior 2019 and came back for his senior season in 2020 before entering the NBA Draft. Testing the waters is not an uncommon part to players who are on the fringe of being selected towards the end of the first round.

Champagnie went from not being named to either of the preseason All-ACC teams, nor receiving a single preseason vote for ACC Player of the Year, to being receiving the second-most votes to make First Team All-ACC and the second-most votes for ACC Player of the Year. If he were to return for the 2021-2022 season, Champagnie would have all eyes on him for the entire season instead of being a surprising player in the conference.

It's also likely that Capel would work throughout the offense to primarily work the ball through Champagnie, giving him more opportunities to score and boost his resume instead of the more balanced Pitt offense the Panthers used in their 8-2 start to the 2020-2021 season.

Champagnie's very talented and would definitely be of value in the NBA, but to be a sure-fire first round pick, he has to clean up more parts of his game to join the elite of the elite. He would need to develop a more consistent outside shot, as well as better handles when driving to the rim.

His rebounding skills are certainly impressive, but at 6-foot-6, Champagnie is the height of the average NBA small forward and not a power forward the way Pitt often used him. He made 23 of 74 3-pointers this season for 31.1 percent, which was eighth-best on the team. A big chunk of those misses came in Pitt's final two losses to Clemson and Miami when Champagnie shot 2 of 12 from beyond the arc and looked off his game.

Champagnie did have stretches where it looked like he was finding his deep shot. During a stretch of four ACC games in January, he hit 12 of 21 3-pointers for a 57.1 percentage. If he can make his 3-point shooting percentage more consistent by avoiding dry spells, he could boost his draft stock significantly by making closer to 35 percent of his 3-pointers.

This is where Champagnie will need to weigh his options. On one hand, he could have another season at Pitt where he's a known star commodity wire-to-wire, improve his game with a full offseason of working with the team and be a more complete player in the 2022 NBA Draft. On the other hand, he could look at how he's missed time for a knee injury in each of his first two seasons and see going to the draft as a way to guarantee he'll have an NBA career without risking further injuries while being unpaid in college.