CHICAGO -- Things in the National League Central are not going to be pretty this season. The same FanGraphs projections that have the Pirates with a 0.3 percent chance at making the playoffs also have the Brewers needing only 83 games to win the division.
But I would tend to agree with them.
That 83-game total is five worse than the next-lowest division winner’s projected total -- the Twins at 88. Also, the collective 4.6 percent odds to win the World Series is the lowest.
Even among this competition, the Pirates are still a couple years away from competing. But, according to FanGraphs, just four games will separate the other four teams in the Central, which is very similar to last year’s disparity. Obviously, these projections are just an educated guess. But it’s a decent depiction of how tight the rest of the division is -- even if it’s not so much a clash of the titans as it might be a battle of who could care less.
It seemed as though the Cardinals were trying hardest among members of the division to “go for it” this offseason with the Nolan Arenado trade. But their other moves were underwhelming: retaining both Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright -- which, by the way, even the biggest St. Louis hater would agree that those two would be out of place on any other club.
Milwaukee brought in two excellent defenders, Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. It retained two of the best relievers in the game in Devin Williams and Josh Hader. And there’s still an MVP in the corner outfield in Christian Yelich. If Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes could retain some of the successes they had last season, the Brewers would probably be the most complete team in the division.
Even with Milwaukee as my pick, the Cardinals are still the best bet to catch them. Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt can be a deadly combination in that lineup. But they’ll need Jack Flaherty to rediscover some of what made him the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of 2019, and some youngsters like Dylan Carlson and Alex Reyes to step up in the outfield and the bullpen.
YOUR TURN: Who do you think will win the division?