What's with Mitch? Three theories for Keller's maddening messes

After falling behind early to the Royals Wednesday night, the Pirates were able to rattle off five unanswered runs between the fourth and fifth innings to make it a ball game.

They weren’t able to even tie it up, and eventually lost, 9-6, because Mitch Keller dug too big a hole for his team.

Through his first five starts of the season, Keller has pitched to an 8.20 ERA over 18 ⅔ innings, alternating between good starts and bad.

Wednesday’s outing was bad. He pitched just 2 ⅓ innings and was charged with four earned runs on three hits and -- what was most telling -- five walks. That’s now 13 free passes for him on the season.

“We have to continue to get the fastball in the zone,” Derek Shelton said after the game. “I think that’s probably the biggest takeaway out of it is -- I don’t know how many he threw, but the starts that he’s been effective, the fastball has been in the zone, and tonight, he just wasn’t in the zone.”

But why is Keller struggling to get in the zone? This wasn’t an issue until the very end of last season. What’s happened? Here are some theories:

MECHANICAL ISSUES, 
DIMINISHED STUFF

There’s no denying that Keller’s actual stuff has taken a step back early this year. His fastball dipped into the low 90s at times Wednesday, and he isn’t getting nearly enough spin or movement on his breaking stuff. The slider in particular is down 300 RPM from 2019.

It leads to flat pitches, like this one that Jorge Soler put into the gap for a double:

That slider had a little vertical movement, but virtually no run. Granted, it was the 11th pitch of the at-bat to Soler and Keller’s 29th of the inning, but the execution wasn’t there in the first, or really all game.

“He was in the zone there and they continued to stretch out at-bats,” Shelton said of Keller’s first inning. “Soler had a really long, good at-bat. He fouled off some good pitches. I think it was one of those things that we just didn’t execute the final putaway pitch, and they continued to extend at-bats.”

On the night, the Royals swung at 33 of Keller’s pitches. The results: Six whiffs, 19 foul balls, eight balls put in play. Of those eight, four were hits and four had an exit velocity of over 100 mph, meaning they were crushed. And even if it wasn't crushed, the Royals were usually able to get a piece of it.

Keller is throwing from a lower arm slot this year, whether intentional or not is not yet known. It could be part of an explanation for why his pitches just aren’t playing off each other as well as they had in the past.

CONFIDENCE ... 
OR IT’S A MENTAL THING

I’m less inclined to believe this one, but it has been a talking point on social media. Let’s address it.

I have a hard time accepting that Keller all of a sudden has developed trust issues with either his stuff or approach. He spoke this spring about potentially assuming more of a leadership role. Perhaps knowing there more eyeballs on him does make a difference.

But on Wednesday, in this reporter’s opinion, he looked frustrated more than anything.

“I think there’s some frustration because he’s putting in hard work, and right now, he’s not seeing the fruits of it,” Shelton said.

I don’t buy that a guy needs to look confident to be confident, but if a pitcher is visibly frustrated on the mound, that’s usually a problem. That would be just as much of an issue as being nervous about attacking the zone.

“I know from getting to know him now, he's a bulldog, he's a competitor,” Todd Frazier said. “I just think he needs to understand he's very good. His command wasn't there today... Things happen, but he's going to be a really good pitcher once he just understands his command's going to be there.”

STILL ADJUSTING 
TO THE CHANGES

It’s hard to remember sometimes since his major league debut was almost two years ago now, but Keller only has 21 starts under his belt in the majors. More times than not, that’s just a rookie season.

Not only that, these past couple years have brought about some serious changes in approach and preparation. Oscar Marin is not Ray Searage, and some of this is still new for Keller.

Take his fastball command, for example. It’s clear he’s trying to get the high strike, but it’s rising on him:

Fastball command is imperative for Keller because it sets up his secondary pitches.

“When your fastball is not in the zone a ton, it loses effectiveness of breaking balls,” Shelton said.

Keller, and all the pitchers, are still learning, and some bumps are expected along the way. There’s a big difference between Keller’s start against the Padres earlier this month, where he was in the zone but hit hard, and Wednesday’s performance, where most of the damage was self-inflicted. Until he gets that under control, it’s hard to see him reaching his potential.