COLUMBUS, Ohio — No team has inflicted more playoff pain on the Penguins than their upcoming first-round opponent. If you cataloged the franchise’s greatest postseason heartbreaks, page after page would be dedicated to the Islanders.
From blowing a 3-0 series advantage in 1975 to squandering a 3-1 lead late in the fifth and deciding game in 1982 to losing a shot at a Stanley Cup three-peat on a David Volek overtime goal in Game 7 in 1993, the Penguins have led a tortured tournament existence against the Isles.
Of course, the Islanders’ 4-1 playoff series edge will mean little when the teams open this year’s postseason at PPG Paints Arena. The Penguins are the superior side in many facets, including offensive firepower and depth, team speed and the way both clubs finished out the regular season. That doesn’t mean, however, Pittsburgh fans should expect a short series to avenge the 2019 first-round sweep at the hands of Barry Trotz and the Isles.
You can paralyze yourself with data, but if I’m Mike Sullivan there’s one statistic that I would circle. The Islanders are 23-2-2 when scoring first in games this season. The .853 winning percentage is third-best in the league, and no team lost fewer games in regulation when scoring first.
To be clear, most good teams have strong records in this category. The Penguins were 23-4-2. But for a low-scoring bunch like the Isles — they finished 20th in goals per game (2.71) — it allows them to stay within their system, which is among the stingiest in the NHL. Despite winning just three times over the last 10 games, the Islanders finished second in goals against average (2.23).
Trotz has them well-drilled in taking away the middle of the ice and the low slot. The Isles can squeeze the life out of a game once they have a lead, feasting on turnovers borne out of opponents’ frustrations and the desire to make cross-ice passes. This is a team run by Lou Lamoriello, and you don’t need to squint hard to see visions of his 1990s Devils.
Coaches always talk about “starting on time” and the Islanders’ ability to play with the lead should enable Sullivan to get his message across to Sidney Crosby and the rest of the league’s highest-scoring team. Grab a lead and make the Isles chase the game.
The pick here is the Penguins in six. And, for what it’s worth, those two OT losses suffered by the Isles when scoring first came against Pittsburgh.
The Isles enter the playoffs struggling to score against good teams. They haven’t tallied more than three goals since April 1 in games that didn’t involve the Sabres, Devils or Rangers.
If the Penguins start quickly, they should cruise into the second round. But if they allow the Islanders to play with the lead, the weight of playoff history could cripple them again.
YOUR TURN: What, if anything, concerns you about the Penguins’ chances of winning their opening-round series?