All-Star starter? How Frazier stacks up to Albies

A pleasant distraction from the Pirates’ dreadful season has been Adam Frazier’s performance at the plate through the first 70 games.

Frazier, much like Bryan Reynolds, has bounced back from a difficult pandemic-shortened campaign to emerge as one of the season’s best hitters. Frazier has transformed from potential trade chip to coveted bat among teams that will be buyers at the trade deadline. And given the current situation at the major-league level for the Pirates, a deal is more than likely.

But while he’s still playing home games at PNC Park, Frazier can bring the Pirates a wonderful distinction at a difficult time. With very few positives to talk about on the end of a 10-game losing streak this past Friday, Derek Shelton was eager to discuss the Pirates' potential representatives in the All-Star Game.

“I was asked the other day, 'Why should Adam Frazier be an All-Star?' And my question back was, 'Why should Adam Frazier not be the starting second baseman for the National League team?' That's a better question for me,” Shelton said before Friday’s streak-busting 11-10 win against the Indians.

Let’s attempt to find an answer for Shelton’s query.

Besides Frazier, the Pirates may have other candidates for the game, namely Reynolds and Richard Rodriguez. But Frazier is the only one with a legitimate chance to start. And rightfully so.

There are three days left for “Phase 1” voting to determine who will be in the starting lineups at the Mid-Summer Classic in Denver on July 13. The league released the results of the polling Monday, and Frazier is second in the voting for second basemen -- of which the top three will advance to the second round.

Ahead of Frazier is Ozzie Albies, with Gavin Lux coming up third in the current polls. 

Now, this voting is not a true indicator of which player is having the better season. Oftentimes it’s more of a popularity contest. Which should explain the Dodgers second baseman’s inclusion here as he’s batting just .246 with six homers and nothing really impressive in terms of the peripheral stats either.

Albies has the privileged distinction of being BFF's with one of MLB's golden boys. Which makes him somewhat gilded himself. But Frazier’s inclusion here means that people are at least paying attention -- even if there's a chance he got a popularity boost from fans of other teams hoping their general manager might strike a deal with Ben Cherington.

Frazier absolutely deserves this consideration. He might even deserve to start. But that should all come down to how his year stacks up against Albies.

So, how does Frazier’s 2021 campaign compare to that of the Braves’ second baseman?

Barring anything unforeseen, both Frazier and Albies will be in the game in some capacity -- ironically enough, not in the city that holds tremendous significance to them both. 

Most of this determination will come down to what is being produced at the plate. Not that fielding and baserunning won’t be considered, it’s just that these types of things naturally assign more value to the bat. But that should be a relief to anyone predicting Frazier will get that start in Colorado.

While still capable of making some amazing plays, Frazier has fallen off from his Gold Glove-nominated 2019 season.

He’s in a three-way tie for the most errors among all second basemen with five, and the advanced statistics don’t paint a more rosy picture. He’s at -1 for defensive runs saved, in which he finished with 5 in 2019, and his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR, which is how FanGraphs factors in defense in WAR) is down to -3.2 compared to 2.9 two years prior.

Albies isn’t all that better by advanced metrics, with a -0.5 UZR and -2 DRS, but he’s committed just two errors and carries the edge in revised zone ratings, which determines how often a player can turn a batted ball that’s hit their way into an out. Albies is at .746 and Frazier at .672.

On the bases, well, Frazier himself isn’t afraid to talk about his shortcomings in that department.

Neither of these guys have a tremendous amount of stolen bases, with Albies’ seven edging Frazier’s four. But Frazier has been caught as many times as he’s been successful, while Albies has failed only once in the same number of attempts. Albies also ranks better in the alphabet soup of various base running metrics available to the public.

So, as was predicted, this all comes down to the hitting.

Although neither are tremendous in stature, they’re both very different hitters. 

Albies is no traditional power hitter, but he’s displayed way more muscle than Frazier throughout their careers. So, Albies has the edge on Frazier in the hitting statistics that are often most favorable to the traditional power hitter. 

He hit his 11th homer of the season Monday, while Frazier has been stuck on two long balls since May 29. His 45 RBIs top Frazier’s 25. His .496 slugging percentage is 45 points greater than Frazier. And in the advanced numbers, Albies’ ISO+ is 144 to Frazier’s 78.

But in plenty of other metrics, both traditional and advanced, Frazier holds a significant advantage.

Frazier strikes out significantly less. But, in 2021 that might not matter that much. His 88 hits rank second in the majors, and he’s tied with Nick Castellanos for the MLB lead with 23 doubles. But Albies isn’t far behind with 21.

They’ve both scored 40 runs, and, according to FanGraphs, they’re both worth an identical 1.9 WAR so far this season.

In a different year or a different position, Frazier might not have any competition as an All-Star starter, considering the numbers he’s posted at the plate. But nothing has come easy to the Pirates this season.

Both players will have plenty of chances to make their case before the second phase of voting concludes on July 1. And until then, this competition should fuel the drive for scoreboard checking that might have been weakened but the difficult season to date.