Forget about what people on the outside of the Steelers' organization are saying about Ben Roethlisberger's arm. Mike Tomlin often says the outside noise is as relevant as elevator music. Tune out that, and tune into what the Steelers' coaches and players are saying themselves based on what they see, just like Dale Lolley did on Sunday.
Everyone from Roethlisberger himself to defensive backs coach Teryl Austin see a difference in how the ball is coming out of the 39-year old's hands on passes. That arm won't be nearly the hinge that determines the success of a team that's returning multiple First Team All-Pro players as it was during the defensive days Jarvis Jones and Artie Burns were on the Steelers' defense.
But that arm will still be vital to establishing, and maintaining a balanced offense on the other side of that defense. And Roethlisberger's ability to hit receivers down the field will be crucial to that balance existing during the 2021 campaign.
If you want to talk about Roethlisberger's deep ball potential in 2021, you need to start with an honest assessment of how it played out in 2020. Anyone selling that his deep passing game was either side of completely terrible or elite is picking and choosing which analytics to apply and ignoring the complexity of the entire picture.
To qualify as a deep pass in the NFL, the ball must travel at least 20 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage before it's caught. This allows us to look at numbers his deep passing numbers from Pro Football Focus.
On the cynical side, Roethlisberger completed just 30.3 percent of those passes, ranking 31st among 39 quarterbacks who attempted at least 20 deep balls last season. PFF's overall grade for Roethlisberger was a 68.3, ranking him between Andy Dalton and Drew Locke as the 30th best deep ball quarterback in the NFL.
On the positive side, Roethlisberger's 11 touchdowns on deep passes were fifth-most in the NFL, and his 11 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio was identical to that of Josh Allen, who PFF ranked sixth in NFL deep passing last season.
One thing must be clear; Roethlisberger can throw the ball deep. Anyone saying he can't at all wasn't paying attention or is selling a lie. Just watch this 84-yard touchdown pass to Chase Claypool against the Broncos that traveled approximately 38 yards in the air. As Roethlisberger had pressure in his face and would get hit, he still let go of a pretty ball down the sideline against single coverage.
The ball led Claypool enough for him to run under it, was placed on his outside shoulder so that even if the cornerback was in his hip pocket, Claypool wouldn't have to work too hard to get it:
You don't make that throw if you can't throw the deep ball.
There are several factors as to why Roethlisberger's completion percentage was so low, and explaining that context is important to any evaluation on the matter. For one, recovering from his elbow surgery meant Roethlisberger had to throw the ball a great many times to get his arm back into playing shape. That played a role in his arm getting tired as the season wore on, as did the question of where Roethlisberger was throwing the ball.
NEXTGENSTATS.NFL.COM
As you can see in the above chart, Roethlisberger's passer rating numbers to the left side of the field were significantly higher than league average across the board. Those passing numbers to the middle of the field were only slightly above league average, and to the right of the field he was either slightly or significantly below average.
That didn't stop Randy Fichtner from dialing up deep passes to Roethlisberger's right side. For example, Claypool, the Steelers' best deep threat, received 32 deep targets on the season. But 17 of those deep targets, or 53 percent, went to the right side of the field. Only eight such targets were on the left side, and seven were thrown down the middle.
That's got to change in 2021.
Some of those deep passes that didn't connect weren't completely on Roethlisberger, either. Like this deep ball to Claypool that turned into a jump ball with Josh Norman. It hit the rookie's hands, but still fell incomplete:
But consistently, the right side was still a problem.
Another factor to remember is that while Roethlisberger can still target receivers downfield, his deep ball doesn't have the same zip it did when he was in his prime. The more air time requires more touch on the ball, increased accuracy, and gives defenders a better chance to react to it.
Having to figure that out while his arm was tiring at the end of the season was a challenge that proved to be too much.
Here's a deep crossing route in a game against the Bengals late in the season where Diontae Johnson had a step on his man, but Roethlisberger just flat-out missed him. You can see he doesn't step into his throw and the flick of his wrist didn't lead Johnson down the field in a way that could've led to a big play, maybe even a touchdown, if it's thrown correctly:
But again, that's late in the season when Roethlisberger wasn't as sure about his arm.
There are plenty of ways to scheme up situations where he would be more comfortable throwing the ball where he could lead a receiver into open space instead of just fitting a tight passing window. More concepts that allow for him to target the middle of the field can help with that, as targeting receivers on go routes down the sideline allow cornerbacks to pinch receivers to the sidelines and drastically shrink that passing window.
But this still will come down to just how good Roethlisberger's arm feels. During a season when he averaged more than 40 passes per game, that wear and tear also impacted his cerebral approach to quarterbacking.
Roethlisberger was diagnosing defenses consistently well into the middle of the season. But late in the season you saw him miss an increasing amount of open opportunities by not even looking at open receivers. Watch this attempted deep ball where he stared down Eric Ebron for too long, letting Jessie Bates bite hard on his corner route. That left Claypool wide open on a post pattern that had Roethlisberger could've floated well down the field and led to a game-changing touchdown in a game they would eventually lose:
But even in the final games of the season, it wasn't about Ben's arm being unable to get the job done. He had just burned it out after a year of intense rehab and a year of the offense heavily relying on the passing game.
Even in the playoff loss to the Browns when Roethlisberger threw four interceptions, deep passing wasn't his problem as he completed 3 of 6 deep balls for 89 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions.
He especially showed that in his final regular season game against the Colts when he completed this deep ball, which might've been his best of the season, to Johnson:
Perfectly in stride, and put in a place where only Johnson could get to it.
Roethlisberger's deep passing will be present in 2021 if he stays healthy. And with a much less intense offseason that won't wear down his arm before the season even begins, maybe his deep passing game will remain present for much longer.
