ALTOONA, Pa. -- Sometimes it can be tough to find two or three big story lines in a given college football game. This is not one of those times.
There are a slew of good angles and focal points in Penn State's showdown with SEC power Auburn on Saturday night at Beaver Stadium. Let's get into them:
This is a defining moment for both of these teams
Whoever wins this game will take a tremendous amount of confidence into the rest of the season.
No. 10 Penn State is already a confident group after a season-opening win at Wisconsin, the best road victory of James Franklin's tenure with the Nittany Lions. No. 22 Auburn surely feels confident after a 2-0 start against bad competition, but if it can pick up a huge road victory over a top 10 team from the Big Ten, that would do wonders for new coach Bryan Harsin.
This game offers both programs a chance to pick up a signature win on the national stage, and whoever does so will gain a whole bunch of momentum.
What do we really know about _________?
This is a fill-in-the-blank question because you can put either Penn State or Auburn in there.
Yes, the Lions won at Wisconsin, but in some ways they were lucky to do so. The Badgers played uncharacteristically sloppy football and wasted several golden opportunities to score in the red zone. Penn State came away with the win, but it certainly could have gone the other way in Madison. And last week's blowout over Ball State really didn't teach us anything about the Lions, who were merely working on some things for most of the day.
Auburn beat Akron 60-10 and Alabama State 62-0. You can throw both of those games out the window, because the competition level or game situations in those won't be remotely close to what the Tigers will face in this one.
• What: Penn State (2-0) vs. Auburn (2-0)
• When: 7:30 p.m.
• Where: Beaver Stadium
• TV: ABC
• Boxscore: ESPN
• Media notes: Penn State | Auburn
It's a whiteout, so Penn State should win. Right?
Not exactly. Sure, some of the best Penn State moments of this century have occurred during whiteouts, namely the 2016 block and score win over Ohio State and the 2005 victory over the Buckeyes that put the Lions back on the national map after the dark years of 2003 and '04.
But did you know that Penn State has gone just 8-8 in whiteout games? On one hand, that's sort of hard to believe given how great the atmosphere is at Beaver Stadium. But on the other hand, the Lions always play a very difficult opponent in the whiteout, so these games are almost always hotly contested. Here's the breakdown:
2004: vs. No. 9 Purdue - L 21-13
2005: vs. No. 6 Ohio State - W 17-10
2006: vs. No. 4 Michigan - L 17-10
2007: vs. Notre Dame - W 31-10
2008: vs. No. 22 Illinois - W 38-24
2009: vs. Iowa - L 21-10
2010: vs. Michigan - 41-31
2011: vs. No. 3 Alabama - L 27-11
2012: vs. No. 9 Ohio State - L 35-23
2013: vs. No. 18 Michigan - W 43-40 (4 OT)
2014: vs. No. 13 Ohio State - L 31-24 (2 OT)
2015: vs. No. 14 Michigan - L 28-16
2016: vs. No. 2 Ohio State - W 24-21
2017: vs. No. 19 Michigan - W 42-13
2018: vs. No. 4 Ohio State - L 27-26
2019: vs. No. 16 Michigan - W 28-21
As you can see, the Lions have won three of the last four whiteout games. And they'll go into this one as 5-point favorites over Auburn.
ESPN's "College GameDay" is in town
It's a night game, but fans can start getting fired up early Saturday morning with the ESPN show being broadcast from Penn State. The "GameDay" shows alway lead to great crowds and a ton of exposure for the PSU program, and the impact of those things cannot be overlooked. Today's show is expected to include a feature on how the whiteout came to be at Penn State, as it was the brainchild of former marketing man Gudio D'Elia.
Let's talk football, not coaching possibilities
The big story all week has been speculation about James Franklin being a potential candidate for the USC coaching job. And while that certainly will come up on the "GameDay" show, we now get to focus squarely on football.
Who will Lee Corso pick?
It's gotta be Penn State. No way he's putting that Auburn head on.
Which QB will show up -- for both teams?
Sean Clifford is off to a good start, and he will have the advantage of playing at home in this one. But he also is playing against a good defense that has size and speed, and the Tigers will be coming after Clifford every chance they get. He must protect the football, make good decisions, be accurate and hit the big plays deep down the field when he gets the opportunity.
Bo Nix has been awful on the road in his Auburn career, so this game gives him an early season opportunity to exorcise some of those demons. He can be a really good quarterback when he has time to throw the ball and can look over the field. But he is going to be playing in an extremely loud stadium where the fans will make things tough on him. Just like with Clifford, he must protect the ball and hit open receivers.
Can Auburn run the ball on Penn State's defense?
This will be a GIGANTIC factor in the game. The Tigers have two outstanding running backs in Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby. (Fun fact: Both of these teams have a running back named Tank, with PSU's being Tank Smith.)
If Auburn can run the ball effectively, it certainly can win the game. The Tigers usually are able to run on just about anybody, and they have a good offensive line that should give Penn State some problems.
Wisconsin rushed for 180 yards in the loss to Penn State. What's the magic number for Auburn if it wants to win? Let's go with about 150. Because if the Tigers do pile up that many yards, it will take a lot of pressure off Nix having to win this by himself throwing the ball.
Will Penn State's defensive line be up to the challenge?
The line was the biggest question mark entering the season, and it made people feel a whole lot better by playing a good game at Wisconsin. But it didn't play a great game by any stretch. The Badgers had running lanes and did pick up 29 first downs. Penn State also failed to get a ton of pressure on QB Graham Mertz for most of that game.
The D-line must must hold its own here against both the run and in pushing the Tigers back so they can get pressure on Nix. The Lions' secondary is outstanding and should be able to slow down Auburn's passing game, but that will be largely dependent on how the front seven plays and if Nix has much time to throw.
Bend but don't break
The guess here is that Auburn will pick up a lot of yards and first downs and will be able to move the ball down the field. The Tigers will move the chains between the 20s by balancing their offensive attack.
But can Auburn get into the end zone against this Penn State defense? That will be another massive factor in the game.
Wisconsin had all kinds of opportunities but either shot itself in the foot with bad plays, or Penn State's defenders came up with big plays. Field goals will NOT win this game for Auburn, so no matter how good the Tigers may look at times moving the ball, the Lions will have to be tough in the red zone.
Can Penn State rely on its running game?
The Lions could not at Wisconsin, yet they still won because of some deep balls. Even against Ball State last week, there were times when the offensive line didn't get a lot of push and the running backs were stopped at or near the line of scrimmage.
My guess is Penn State will have a tough time racking up a bunch of yards on the ground, meaning Clifford will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting with his arm. On that note ...
Deep ball could rule the day
I'm a big believer that Penn Sate should take as many shots as it can down the field. The Lions have the weapons in Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, and Mike Yurcich has always liked calling those plays.
Since I don't necessarily believe Penn State's running game will have a great night, it might take a handful of long completions for the Lions to keep Auburn honest and win the game.
This is an enormous recruiting weekend
Dozens of top prospects will be on hand for the game. And Franklin indicated earlier this week just how important whiteout games have been in the past with regards to landing key recruits who came and took in the atmosphere. Don't be surprised if there is a commit or two Saturday, or Sunday at the latest.
Here's a list of the recruits expected to be on hand. It's a VIP story from Lions247.
Welcome to the HALLS Bowl!
It is going to be really loud at Beaver Stadium. Franklin wants everyone to scream their lungs out, and if they have sore throats the next day, Franklin wants to take care of them. He suggested giving away a bunch of HALLS lozenges, so we'll see if the company comes through in some capacity.
Hey Coach Franklin, we heard you loud and clear and we are here to help soothe your fans sore throats for this Saturday's game. Drop us a DM asap so we can get the relief going! 😉
— HALLS (@halls) September 16, 2021
How to bet the game
Penn State is favored by 5 points. If I had to bet that line, I'd go Auburn. You'll see why below.
The over/under is 52. That looks like a better number to me. I'll take the over.
Prediction
Penn State 31, Auburn 27. I was way off taking the over at Wisconsin in what turned out to be an ugly offensive game. But I'll take another shot at here and predict a lot of points.