UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- Some teams, including Penn State, will always look back at the 2020 season with a mental asterisk, feeling deep down inside that a lot of the troubles they endured could be linked to having to deal with all the craziness of the COVID year.
James Franklin, as much of a routine-oriented coach as you'll find, doesn't even like to compare anything with this year's Penn State team to last year, because so many things were just all out of sorts for the Nittany Lions in 2020.
But for as much as Penn State and its fans may feel like 2020 comes with an asterisk, the opposite can be said about Indiana -- or any team, really, that enjoyed a successful season.
The Hoosiers rode the momentum of their controversial 36-35 opening win over Penn State in overtime and put together one of the best seasons in program history. Indiana went 6-1 during the regular season and rose as high as No. 9 in the polls. Its only regular-season loss was a 42-35 decision at Ohio State.
Tom Allen's Hoosiers ended their year with a 26-20 loss to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl.
• What: Indiana (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) at No. 4 Penn State (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)
• When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
• Where: Beaver Stadium
• TV: ABC
• Boxscore: ESPN
• Media notes: Penn State | Indiana
Indiana entered this season with high expectations and a No. 17 ranking, only to get drilled in its opener at Iowa, 34-6. The Hoosiers also fell in week three at home to Cincinnati, 38-24.
A big part of their struggles has been the inconsistent play of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who has six interceptions and only four touchdowns, while completing just 55 percent of his passes.
Penix is a talented veteran who can hurt defenses, but he has not played up to expectations this year.
Now the Hoosiers come into this game at Penn State as 13-point underdogs, a big number considering they've generally played the Lions tough in recent years. Penn State is 22-2 all-time against Indiana, but the games have been more contested over the past decade or so. A look back:
2020: Indiana 36-35
2019: Penn State 34-27
2018: Penn State 33-28
2017: Penn State 45-14
2016: Penn State 45-31
2015: Penn State 29-7
2014: Penn State 13-7
2013: Indiana 44-24
2012: Penn State 45-22
2011: Penn State 16-10
Here's what Franklin said about why Indiana has been a tough matchup for Penn State:
"First of all, I think Tom has done a really good job. I think they have a good scheme and they play hard. I think they have recruited well. To be honest with you, I don't think it's just Penn State. I think their program has improved, and they're doing that against a lot of people. I've watched them on tape, on TV, on Thursday night games. I think for a couple years, if I remember correctly, getting home from my radio show on a Thursday night watching them play Ohio State real tough one year.
"So, they've improved. That improvement has allowed them to win a few more games and allowed them to play pretty much everybody in a competitive way."
One major reason Penn State is a big favorite in this game is its defense, which has been outstanding through four games. With the starters in the game -- not the deep reserves late -- the Lions have allowed 10 points to Wisconsin, six to Ball State, 20 to Auburn and three to Villanova -- for a total of only 39 points in four games.
Penn State's defense played poorly early last year, a big reason the Lions started 0-5. But the group has rebounded in a big way this season under coordinator Brent Pry, who said a lot of good lessons were learned with the struggles of 2020.
"I think that's been kind of the foundation of this is the experience we had through those first four or five weeks last season," Pry said. "As players and coaches. I was asking too much of a group that didn't go through a spring practice (in 2020). ... I was asking too much.
"And then at the same time, it's out of good nature, but guys think they need to guess to make a play, they're trying too hard to make a play and not just locked in on framework and reading keys. And sometimes it just dominoes a little bit. One guy's trying to make a play and isn't where he's supposed to be, so the guy next to him tries to make his play, and it just carries through a little bit. I just kind of saw it erode over those first couple of weeks.
"Honestly, once we addressed it and kind of hammered it for a couple of weeks, we backed off on the menu, shrunk it down on what we were practicing and calling and just said, hey, let's get back to play good fundamentals and some good base stuff and just go from there. And those last four or five weeks of the season (were better).
"Definitely lesson learned, from all of us, really."
Here's my game breakdown for the matchup:
OFFENSE
Penn State: The running game has been terrible, to be blunt, and I place most of the blame on poor run blocking by the line. But Sean Clifford has looked outstanding throwing the ball and making up for it. The Lions certainly will try to run in this one, but if it's not working, don't be surprised to see Clifford throwing a bunch, including short, quick tosses that will supplement the run game. Look for another big game from Jahan Dotson, and to get the tight ends involved.
Indiana: Penix has not played well, and the Hoosiers cannot compete in this game if he struggles. He did look better last week in a 33-31 win over Western Kentucky, completing 35-of-53 for 373 yards but with no touchdowns. If he has to throw the ball 53 times against Penn State, he's going to take a whole bunch of hits. RB Stephen Carr has rushed for 336 yards on 86 carries, just 3.9 per attempt. Ty Fryfogle leads the team with 21 catches for 224 yards and one TD. WR D.J. Matthews (13 for 165) will miss the rest of season with a torn ACL.
Advantage: Penn State
DEFENSE
Penn State: Lions need to be ready for Penix to throw a lot. They've been blitzing on about 50 percent of plays, according to Pry, compared to the usual 40 percent. Pry also noted the defense hasn't been able to play as many players this year as usual, which was expected because some of the backups aren't quite ready for the big role. The secondary should have a good day and could get a couple of picks.
Indiana: Hoosiers have been pretty bad, giving up 34 points to Iowa, 38 to Cincinnati and 31 to Western Kentucky. They likely will, as other teams have done, focus on shutting down Penn State's running game and forcing Clifford to beat them. Which he probably will be able to do.
Advantage: Penn State
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
Penn State: Don't buy anything the coaches or players have been saying about this not being a revenge game. It is. The stripeout will be cool to see at Beaver Stadium.
Indiana: This has been a tough start for Tom Allen and the Hoosiers, who are in danger of falling to 2-3 with a loss here. Yes, last season was very good. But it's always just been so difficult for the Hoosiers to string together long stretches of success -- either within one season or over multiple years. They expected a lot out of Penix this season, and if he plays great, the Hoosiers will have a chance.
GIGER'S PREDICTION
I've long felt Penn State has had this game circled for some payback. The Lions will get it.
Penn State 37, Indiana 20
THE BEAT GOES ON
This is a new weekly feature where many of the esteemed members of the Penn State beat will give their predictions for the game. As far as I know, there's never really been a weekly picks roundup from the beat like this, so hopefully everyone will enjoy it. This isn't including some well-known members of the beat who work for outlets where they all combine to do their own staff picks.
Most folks provided a comment, but some just a score.
Frank Bodani, York Daily Record: Penn State 30-14. Disrupt Michael Penix, running back renaissance.
Donnie Collins, Scranton Times-Tribune: Penn State 38-13. PSU players have said all week they don't believe in "revenge games." I don't believe them. They'll remember last year, and they'll be as sharp as they've been all season this time around.
Mike Gross, Lancaster Online: Penn State 38-23. Penn State got a cruise control week out of its system last week, and there's no way the Hoosiers don't have their attention.
Ben Jones, State College.com: Penn State 31-24
Joe Juliano, Philadelphia Inquirer: Penn State 42-20. The Nittany Lions' secondary shuts down Michael Penix, and Sen Clifford continues to find receivers at a high percentage.
Andrew Kalista, Fox 43: Penn State 38-22. Lions don't have to look far for motivation in this one. Indiana goes for two just for fun.
Kevin McGuire, Nittany Lions Wire: Penn State 31-17. Indiana keeps things tense for a while but eventually Penn State connects on a big play to help seal the deal with a late game-clinching drive.
Jarrod Prugar, DK Pittsburgh Sports: Penn State 42-14. Penn State is going to be looking for some payback or at least it should be. This is the game the offense comes out big on the ground. Expect the Nittany Lions to get up early and keep at it throughout.
Neil Rudel, Altoona Mirror: Penn State 31-16. No controversial calls needed.
Jon Sauber, Centre Daily Times: Penn State 31-17. Penn State should be better on both sides of the ball and has the explosive offense to potentially break this one open.
Rich Scarcella, Reading Eagle: Penn State 34-20
Nubyjas Wilborn, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Penn State 27-24. Indiana uses its run game and Penn State's inability to rush the ball to make the game close.
Mark Wogenrich, Sports Illustrated: Penn State 34, Indiana 17. Sean Clifford and the Penn State defense have come a long way since October 2020.