ALTOONA, Pa. -- We've got No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa this week, which should be a great game and a great atmosphere at Kinnick Stadium.
I honestly cannot wait to see how things play out Saturday evening.
But how much does this game mean to Penn State's chances of reaching the College Football Playoff?
Is it a must-win game in that regard?
The answer, from this perspective, is no.
Certainly, a win would be enormous for the Nittany Lions. But even if they lose, there still would be a pretty clear path to a playoff berth.
Let's break it all down.
Here's a look at the playoff contenders:
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
These are the two best teams in college football, and I don't think it's really close. Let's go ahead and assume that both of them will get into the playoff.
The Tide and Bulldogs should run the table and win their divisions, then meet in the SEC title game. Regardless of who wins, as long as that game is relatively close, it's a good bet that both teams will advance to the College Football Playoff.
OKLAHOMA
This is the team that Penn State fans need to pay attention to, if the Lions lose to Iowa.
If No. 6 Oklahoma goes undefeated and wins the Big 12, it will definitely be in the playoff. But if the Sooners lose even once, their hopes take a big hit.
Oklahoma has not beaten a ranked team yet and has struggled to close wins over Tulane (40-35), Nebraska (23-16) and West Virginia (16-13). The Sooners have looked mediocre at times, but they are still undefeated.
This is their remaining schedule:
vs. No. 21 Texas
vs. TCU
at Kansas
vs. Texas Tech
at Baylor
vs. Iowa State
at No. 12 Oklahoma State
That's not exactly a gauntlet, but there are still some losable games. Because Oklahoma hasn't looked great so far and doesn't have many chances for huge wins left, it would be in a tenuous spot if it loses one time, depending on how things shake out around the rest of the country.
Primarily because of ...
CINCINNATI
The Bearcats are ranked No. 5 after their 24-13 win over Notre Dame and absolutely look like they will go undefeated. Their only real challenge remaining should be No. 24 SMU at home on Nov. 20.
Cincy's schedule is weak. No question. But if the Bearcats are undefeated, I believe the CFP committee will face a lot of pressure to put them into the field. That would be especially true if Notre Dame goes on and has a strong season, either 11-1 or maybe even 10-2.
OREGON
I don't see the Ducks getting in with one loss, unless there's a bunch of chaos around the country. They do have the best win in the nation so far at Ohio State, but the loss to Stanford was crushing, and the remaining schedule is really weak.
OHIO STATE
Obviously Penn State cannot lose to both Iowa and Ohio State. If the Buckeyes beat PSU, go 11-1 and then win the Big Ten championship game, they'll have a strong case to get in. But that home loss to Oregon still could hurt them, depending on scenarios with other teams.
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So, let's take a pause here. To recap:
Alabama and Georgia both probably get in. If Oklahoma wins out, it will be in. If Cincinnati wins out, it very well could be in.
If you look at things that way, then a Penn State loss to Iowa could indeed knock the Lions out of the playoff, even if they beat Ohio State and go on to win the Big Ten championship game.
But I just don't see it that way.
If Oklahoma wins out, then yes, the Sooners will get in. So like I mentioned above, Penn State fans need to keep an eye on the Sooners.
All of the following is assuming Penn State loses at Iowa, but runs the table after that, including winning at Ohio State and winning the Big Ten championship game in a rematch with Iowa.
If all of that happens, I can't see a 12-1 Penn State team missing the playoff.
If Oklahoma wins out, the final playoff spot very well could come down to either 12-1 Penn State or undefeated Cincinnati.
I mean, come on now.
I know, I know, going undefeated would be a terrific achievement for the Bearcats, and they would get a lot of support. But they would have one good win -- over Notre Dame -- compared to Penn State having a resume that would be far, far superior.
Even if the Lions fall at No. 3 Iowa, that would not be a bad loss by any stretch. And if Penn State goes 12-1, it would mean wins over current No. 3 Iowa (in the Big Ten title game rematch), at No. 7 Ohio State, vs. No. 9 Michigan, at No. 11 Michigan State and vs. No. 18 Auburn.
There's no way a team with that resume gets left out of the playoff. Right?
And let's go a step further. If Penn State does go 12-1 against that schedule, a very strong case could be made that it would deserve a playoff spot over whoever loses the SEC title game between Alabama and Georgia.
The only caveat I can make to that is Ohio State's loss to Oregon. I wrote when it happened that it was a bad loss for the Buckeyes and the Big Ten, and it could -- repeat could -- come back to haunt Penn State.
The Lions going in and potenially beating an undefeated Ohio State team would have been tremendous. But Ohio State does get dinged for its loss to Oregon, thereby somewhat diminishing a potential Penn State victory in Columbus.
There are a lot of what ifs and assumptions going on here, and lots of craziness still could take place.
But the way I see things right now, Penn State certainly can afford to lose to Iowa and still have a really strong chance to make the College Football Playoff by winning out.
GIGER'S PREDICTION
If Oklahoma wins out:
Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Big Ten champ
If Oklahoma loses:
Alabama, Georgia, Big Ten champ, Cincinnati