ALTOONA, Pa. -- I've covered Penn State for 16 years now, so I usually know what to expect from the fan base whenever I write any particular story. Earlier this week, I explained my five reasons I'm picking Iowa to beat Penn State, and obviously, I knew that wouldn't go over well with a lot of the Nittany Lions' fans.
But it's not like I'm disrespecting Penn State here with some bad loss. I picked Iowa to win, 26-23. I happen to believe the Hawkeyes are the slightly better team, plus they're at home.
Still, I know Penn State fans aren't going to forget my Iowa pick, as this tweet aptly points out:
I just hope you’re ready for the backlash when Penn St wins 🤷🏽♂️ #weare 🦁⚪️🔵
— Mike Vails (@rooney6) October 8, 2021
I'll be ready, believe me.
It should be a good game. A close game. A game that either team will have a chance to win. That's to be expected in a battle between the No. 3 and 4 teams in the country.
- What: No. 4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Iowa (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten)
- When: Saturday, 4 p.m.
- Where: Kinnick Stadium
- TV: Fox
- Box Score: ESPN
- Media notes: Penn State | Iowa
I've tried to have fair coverage of the big game this week. Here is one story asking if Penn State is ready for Iowa. And here's the follow-up story asking if Iowa is ready for Penn State.
So, since I already gave the reasons why I think Iowa will win, here are 5 reasons why the Lions can win.
1. Protect the football and don't give Iowa short fields
If Penn State does this, its chances to win increase significantly. Iowa, as we've discussed all week, leads the nation in forcing turnovers with 16, and those have led to nearly half of the Hawkeyes' points this season.
The formula, therefore, is simple: Don't turn the ball over and force Iowa's offense to have to drive the length of the field to score.
Sean Clifford has thrown three interceptions in five games, and one of them wasn't his fault as the ball bounced off the receiver's hands. Penn State has fumbled twice but recovered both. So that's only three turnovers total, proving the Lions have been good at protecting the ball.
Doing so against Iowa's tough defense will be more challenging, but if Penn State can do that, it will have a very good chance to win.
2. Jordan Stout
I will always remember the 2006 game at Ohio State when punter Jeremy Kapinos kept PSU in it all day with tremendous punting. He averaged 50.5 yards on six punts and pinned the Buckeyes inside their 20 three times.
Stout could end up being a huge factor in this game if he can do what Kapinos did 15 years ago.
Stout is having an excellent season punting, averaging 48.46 yards on his 24 kicks. He has 11 punts over 50 yards and 10 inside the 20.
Here's what Penn State needs to do. The Lions probably won't be able to sustain a bunch of long scoring drives against this good Iowa defense. But if they can get 2-3 first downs on each possession and get to around midfield, then Stout would have a chance to drill kicks and pin the Hawkeyes deep.
It all sounds so simple, right? But hey, even if PSU is punting from, say, its own 30, Stout's big leg will still give him a chance to pin Iowa deep and force it to drive the field.
3. Penn State's red zone defense
The Lions' defense is very good, but I do see Iowa moving the ball well at times. I just think Penn State is more susceptible against the run than people want to realize.
Where the defense has excelled has been shutting down teams in the red zone. In 15 attempts, opponents have only scored eight times, with just five touchdowns. That is outstanding.
Now, it's not like the Lions have played any great offenses. Wisconsin's offense is awful. Auburn scored 20 points at Beaver Stadium. So I do think Iowa will score some, even if its defense doesn't force turnovers.
For Penn State to win, it will need to shut down those drives and force the Hawkeyes to kick field goals. That's where the outstanding secondary can come into play, with guys like Joey Porter Jr. and Jaquan Brisker stepping up to make plays.
4. The deep ball
I don't believe Penn State will have a bunch of sustained 70- or 80-yard TD drives, but I can see the Lions hitting a couple of big passes that either get to the end zone or set up touchdown opportunities.
Mike Yurcich wants to throw the ball deep. Clifford likes to throw it deep and is good at it. Jahan Dotson is a tremendous receiver who can get open deep, as he did in last year's meeting with a 68-yard touchdown.
All the elements are there for Penn State to be able to hit some big plays, no matter how good Iowa's defense is otherwise. And in what should be a low-scoring game, just one or two explosive plays like that could be the difference.
5. Been there, done that
Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play, but a lot of the members of this Penn State team went there and won in 2019. That includes running back Noah Cain, who has struggled this season but surely will fondly recall his big game that helped the Lions beat the Hawkeyes, 17-12.
Penn State also won at Iowa in 2017 on the walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley to Juwan Johnson. So it's not like Kinnick Stadium has been some kind of house of horrors for the Lions.
James Franklin also has gone 4-1 against Kirk Ferentz -- it was 4-0 before losing last year, 41-21 -- so Franklin knows the formula to getting by the Hawkeyes' longtime coach.