ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State is favored to beat Illinois by 23 points, a big number that led some people to believe that Vegas is expecting Sean Clifford to play Saturday.
Because how could the number be that high, given what Ta'Quan Roberson showed at Iowa?
Well, Illinois' offense is awful, for starters. The Illini were shut out in their last game at home against Wisconsin, and their quarterbacks have completed only 49.8 percent of their passes.
Penn State's defense, meanwhile, has been strong all season and pitched a shutout in the last home game against Indiana.
Can the Nittany Lions even score 23 points if Clifford is not playing to cover the point spread? Will Mike Yurcich keep the game plan very simple for Roberson and perhaps Christian Veilleux, creating a lower-scoring game?
Here's a look at how statewide members of the Penn State beat see the game playing out. We have 14 pickers this week, and only three are picking Penn State to cover the 23-point spread.
As always, many thanks to all of these folks for sharing their predictions. And best comments this week go to Ben Jones (obviously) and Neil Rudel for throwing in the Mike Yurcich at QB reference.
Frank Bodani, York Daily Record: Penn State 27-13. A motivated defense won't need much help. Roberson and the offense really just need to stay out of their way.
Donnie Collins, Scranton Times-Tribune: Penn State 17-9. Look, if Clifford plays and is healthy, it's a 42-9 game. But we don't know if he plays, and I'm not sure how Roberson or Veilleux -- who hasn't played a meaningful high school snap in two years, nevermind a college snap -- are magically going to be good enough to dominate any Big Ten team. Illinois is awful against the run, but that's not exactly a Penn State strength. I think the Lions will win no matter who the QB is. But I don't think they'll look great if it's not Clifford.
Cory Giger, DK Pittsburgh Sports: Penn State 23-6. I think the only way Illinois scores is if Penn State's offense turns the ball over and gives the Illini a short field. I also see Illinois going nowhere on offense and punting a ton, giving Roberson and the offense a whole bunch of possessions. But still not a ton of points for Penn State, and not covering the 23 number.
Mike Gross, Lancaster Online: Penn State 27-9. Roberson gets his bearings and the defense dominates a bad opponent.
Elton Hayes, CNHI Pennsylvania: Penn State 31-10. Whether it's Clifford, Roberson or Veilleux at quarterback, Penn State's defense shines against an Illinois offense that ranks last in the conference in scoring.
Ben Jones, StateCollege.com: Penn State 28-6. Illinois sucks.
Andrew Kalista, Fox 43: Penn State 27-10. Defense makes for an easy score. QB2 or QB3 puts together two TD drives. Jordan Stout adds two field goals. If Clifford plays, it's 49-3.
Joe Juliano, Philadelphia Inquirer: Penn State 24-10. Don't sleep on Illini defense, which has more takeaways and sacks than Nittany Lions. Roberson must focus on ball security.
Kevin McGuire, Nittany Lions Wire: Penn State 34-16. Regardless of who is playing QB for Penn State, there is no excuse to losing this week. Penn State should be in perfect position for a comfortable rebound, even if they don't cover due to a late garbage time score.
Jarrod Prugar, DK Pittsburgh Sports: Penn State 38-13. Penn State defense is too strong for Illinois. Fighting Illini struggle offensively after Bielema's comments, and the Penn State offense is in control throughout no matter who the starting QB is.
Neil Rudel, Altoona Mirror: Penn State 29-10. No matter if it's QB1, QB2, QB3 or Yurcich, defense should carry the day.
Jon Sauber, Centre Daily Times: Penn State 35-7. Defense laser focused in Mustipher's absence and no matter who the QB is.
Rich Scarcella, Reading Eagle: Penn State 27-0. This game shouldn't be close regardless of who is at quarterback.
Mark Wogenrich, Sports Illustrated: Penn State 23-3. The Lions won't need much offense against the Big Ten's worst offense.