ALTOONA, Pa. -- The biggest game of the season is next week. It's the game that will define the 2021 campaign for Penn State, the same as it does most years. It's also the game that could play a very large role in whether James Franklin will still be coaching the Nittany Lions after this season.
Penn State at Ohio State. For a chance to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race.
Wow! Who can't wait for that game?
But there is another opponent waiting Saturday. An Illinois team that's not any good. An Illini program that's been shockingly bad for a long time.
This is the perfect week for Franklin to preach his 1-0 mentality, to make sure that everyone is focused on the task at hand instead of looking ahead to the massive showdown with enormous implications against the Buckeyes.
One would think being focused for this game should not be a problem for the Lions, who are coming off a very disappointing loss at Iowa two weeks ago before having a bye week. This Penn State team still has a ton to play for, and in the grand scheme of things, that loss really doesn't even matter.
As long as the Lions win out, facing the brutal schedule they have to face, and win the Big Ten championship game, they absolutely will be in the College Football Playoff.
The process can begin Saturday when Penn State goes in as a 23-point favorite against Illinois, despite most likely having to turn to backup quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson to play in place of injured Sean Clifford.
- What: No. 7 Penn State (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) vs. Illinois (2-5, 1-3 Big Ten)
- When: Saturday, noon
- Where: Beaver Stadium
- TV: ABC
- Box Score: ESPN
- Media notes: Penn State | Illinois
Most believe whoever is at quarterback for Penn State won't matter against Illinois, which has its own QB issues. Illini coach Bret Bielema hasn't named who will start between Rutgers transfer Artur Sitkowski and Brandon Peters, who is coming back from an injury. Neither has been very good this season.
Bielema is a solid coach and did a nice job at Wisconsin before struggling at Arkansas. He has a very tough task at Illinois, which has been lousy for a long time. In case people aren't aware, this is Illinois' season-by-season record this century, and it is ugly to say the least.
- 2021: 2-5
- 2020: 2-6
- 2019: 6-7
- 2018: 4-8
- 2017: 2-10
- 2016: 3-9
- 2015: 5-7
- 2014: 6-7
- 2013: 4-8
- 2012: 2-10
- 2011: 7-6
- 2010: 7-6
- 2009: 3-9
- 2008: 5-7
- 2007: 9-4 -- went to Rose Bowl
- 2006: 2-10
- 2005: 2-9
- 2004: 3-8
- 2003: 1-11
- 2002: 5-7
- 2001: 10-2 -- went to Sugar Bowl
- 2000: 5-6
This will be the 10th consecutive losing season for Illinois, which has had just four winning seasons since 2000. Put simply, this is absolutely one of the worst football programs in the Big Ten and has been for some time now.
"Bret Bielema's got a tremendous resume, has been successful in this conference as a head coach, highly successful," Franklin said this week. "Obviously, been a head coach in the SEC, coached in the NFL with a storied organization (Patriots), and now as a head coach again in the Big Ten at Illinois. So, tremendous respect for him and the university as a whole."
Bielema does have a nice resume, but he got himself in hot water this week with critical comments about his roster.
"As this roster continues to transition, I've got to make tough decisions," he said. "The players have to make decisions. The roster is going to have to change to get to where we want to be to win a championship. I recognized that probably midway through the spring last year, through the summer. Certain positions haven't probably played out the way they envisioned them to, in particular the offensive line. I don't believe we have a player in the two-deep that they've recruited here over the last three years that is really significantly doing anything for us in the playing department, and that's a major concern."
There's really no ambiguity in those comments. This is not a talented roster because of poor recruiting.
But Bielema attempted to backtrack Thursday by saying he wasn't trying to be critical.
"I was stating facts about where we are when I mentioned offensive linemen and defensive linemen," he said. "That is a position of need because of numbers, not because of who I do or don't have. We don't have the numbers at the offensive and defensive line, which is a premium in our program. ... If you want to take it in any other direction, that's your prerogative. But that's not the intent whatsoever. And it wasn't anything derogatory at the past staff.
"They're my words, I said them, but they were completely taken out of context," Bielema also noted. "(The media has) got jobs to do, and sometimes clickbait and comments are part of it. That's what you've got to do. Unfortunately, when you're a 2-5 football team, sometimes those things get amplified."
Here's my game breakdown:
OFFENSE
Penn State: Will Clifford play? Not unless he has to would be my guess. Penn State can win this game easily with Roberson and a strong defense. It actually will be a good opportunity to get Roberson as much experience as possible. If he struggles or gets hurt, maybe we see Clifford. Or, it's possible Clifford isn't ready to play and Franklin won't risk using him with Ohio State waiting next week. Expect Roberson to have a reduced package of plays that he knows well and can run effectively. We also could see a little bit of Christian Veilleux, but I would expect not much.
Illinois: Sitkowski is a decent game manager but not a major threat to beat you throwing the ball. He's completing 51.2 percent with six TDs and one interception. Peters is completing 48 percent with one TD and one pick. Neither should be overly effective against Penn State's defense. The Illini do run the ball well, led by Chase Brown (414 yards, 6.9 per carry) and Joshua McCray (334 yards, 5.3 per carry). That could be an issue for a Penn State defense without injured tackle PJ Mustipher.
Advantage: Penn State
DEFENSE
Penn State: Lions are looking for a second consecutive home shutout. They might get it against this offense, which was shut out its last game two weeks ago against Wisconsin.
Illinois: The Illini are actually decent on this side of the ball. Look for them to load up the box to stop Penn State's running game and force Roberson to throw the ball. So don't expect the Lions to necessarily have a big day on the ground. If Roberson is effective throwing, Illinois may have to change its game plan. But if Roberson struggles, this defense is good enough to at least make things somewhat respectable.
Advantage: Penn State
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
Penn State: Franklin is 3-5 coming off a bye week at Penn State. But some of those were against really good teams. Illinois is not a good team at all. The Lions will be ready to play in this one. But the big question will be whether Roberson can play a solid game. We'll see. This is also homecoming, which adds more motivation for Penn State.
Illinois: Given Bielema's comments questioning the talent on the team, one has to wonder if the Illini players will be truly motivated this week, or if they may quit on their coach if they get down. As mentioned above, the defense is decent, so people shouldn't necessarily expect a Penn State blowout. The 23-point line seems too high given that Roberson is expected to play.
Advantage: Penn State
PREDICTION
Penn State 23-6. A lower-scoring game and an easy win, then it will be time to look ahead to the Buckeyes.