On Monday, the Pirates made what will end up being their most surprising, and controversial, moves of the offseason by trading Jacob Stallings to the Marlins for three players.
For those hoping that the teardown portion of the Pirates’ rebuild was over, the answer is apparently no, net yet.
The club ended up trading away their Gold Glove catcher and clubhouse leader. The 2022 season didn’t look particularly promising before, but now it looks bleaker. And without a catcher on the 40-man roster, it raises questions of exactly the Pirates handle the position in 2022.
I touch more on that and the impact of losing someone like Stallings in the podcast embedded below. For now, let’s take a look at the players the Pirates got back from the Marlins.
Coming the Pirates’ way are 28-year-old right-hander Zach Thompson, right-hander Kyle Nicolas, the No. 23 prospect in the Marlins’ system according to Baseball America, and outfielder Connor Scott, their 2018 first-round draft pick. Like many of the other trades Ben Cherington has made since becoming the Pirates’ general manager, there is some unexplored upside with these prospects. Unlike the other trades though, that upside may not be as high.
Of the three players the Pirates acquired, Thompson has the highest floor since he already has reached the majors and did quite well in a decent sample size. Over 26 appearances, 14 of which were starts, he went 3-7 with a 3.24 ERA with 66 strikeouts.
It was a pleasant surprise for the Marlins, who signed him as a minor-league free agent ahead of the 2020 season. The plan was to originally use him as reliever depth, but he was slowly built back up into a starter, all while impressing his new team.
“It's like, ‘How does this guy get away from teams?’ ” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said to reporters, including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola, last season. “I liked his stuff, but you never know where that goes, too, after Spring Training. Sometimes those guys go to Triple-A and you never see them again. Zach, I think, started a little slow, and then kind of got it going.”
He kept it going by relying on his cutter, which he threw more than any of his five pitches (35.1%). It has good spin, averaging 2,545 RPM, and late movement. Emphasize late movement, because while it doesn’t get a ton of break, the observed movement makes that break seem like it’s greater than it actually is:
Normally, a 6’7” right-hander profiles as a sinkerballer, and while Thompson does have one at his disposal, the cutter is his main pitch, getting some natural sink with the pitch’s horizontal movement. That made it a tough pitch for hitters to get a hold of last year, hitting .186 against it with a .262 expected wOBA. Out of the 39 pitchers who had at least 100 plate appearances end with a cutter, that .186 average was the fourth-lowest in baseball.
The rest of the repertoire is more serviceable than exciting. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s, and while he tried to throw it up in the zone, that natural sink would often take it down over the middle. His curve doesn’t get a lot of spin, but its spin mirrors the fastball’s, making it tunnel well. Batters hit .213 with a .298 slugging percentage against it, but that might be more reflective on how he mostly threw it when ahead in the count and seldomly when behind. He also mixes in a changeup that played pretty well to both lefties and righties.
If that repertoire sounds appealing, well, remember that he had a 3.24 ERA last year. The stuff was good enough to have a season like that. Also remember that he was a minor-league free agent a little over a year ago. He has a potentially plus cutter and some complimentary offspeed and breaking pitches, so if he can navigate his fastball, he could work as a junkballer. He has a higher floor, but without any real pedigree or history as a noteworthy prospect, the ceiling is the question, especially at 28. The assessment I got was he is either backend of the rotation starter or a swingman, which is a label he probably will not shake unless he puts in a quality full year in the majors.
The other two players acquired have the pedigree of being early-round draft picks, but more uncertainty about their future.
Nicolas was a Competitive Balance Round B pick in 2020, meaning he was picked at the end of the second round. He got his first taste of professional games in 2021, and while he was hit hard in Class High-A, posting a 5.28 ERA despite striking out one-third of his batters faced, he found success at Class AA, recording a 2.52 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate over eight starts.
Watching some video on him from last year, he works quickly and mostly out of the stretch, even if no one is one base. As a result, it’s a simple, direct motion to home plate:
I talked to a National League analyst shortly after the trade, and they said they really liked his fastball and slider combo. The former sits around 94 mph, though it has touched 97, while the latter hovers around 2,500 RPM of spin, which is a little above major league average. Those two pitches are his bread and butter, because his changeup doesn’t seem to have much potential and he’s still developing feel for his curve, going off of Baseball America’s report. He also also control issues, like many young pitchers making the jump to pro ball.
So he’s a righty with a mid-90s fastball and potentially plus slider, but has trouble hitting his spots and doesn’t have a reliable third pitch? Yeah, guys like that usually profile into the bullpen. He’s still early enough in his development cycle that he still will be given an opportunity to start, and if he can improve in those two facets, he could be a No. 3 or 4 starter.
The bullpen is a fallback option if that doesn’t work out. I would expect him to start with Class AA Altoona next year, where he will be joining one of the best young rotations in baseball with last year’s Greensboro staff.
That leaves Scott, who looks to be the most boom or bust player of the bunch. Like Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler, Greg Allen and other outfielders the Pirates have picked up before him, he’s definitely toolsy. Good speed, can field well, some raw power. It’s just not translated into game situations.
This is most apparent with the bat, where he had only modest results in pro ball his first two years in pro ball. He enjoyed his best campaign in Class High-A this season, but a .276 average and .779 OPS are only good, not great. It was an adventure to get there, too. Despite being a left-handed swinger, Scott was batting under .200 against right-handers heading into July. He eventually learned to handle right-handers more, but it’s risky to put too much stock into someone who relies on reverse platoon splits.
He showed improved power in 2021, going deep 10 times with 25 doubles, but the batted ball data also fell into the “good, not great” category. A 107.5 mph max exit velocity and 28% hard-hit rate (going by Baseball Savant’s measure of batted balls at a 95+ mph exit velocity) are well below major league averages, but you would expect a player still in Class A to grow and improve. With a jump to Altoona looking probable, if not expected, for 2022, he’s going to need to show an uptick in his batted ball peripherals.
There's a lot of concern he'll never live up to his first-round billing. Not to sound too one-sided, the swing is pretty:
His hands are close to their load position to cut down on unnecessary movement and help get the ball out in front more. He makes a quick stride forward and instead of a big leg kick or toe tap, and when all goes right, he leverages his body well. That last one isn’t a given, though, and he’s prone to going into stretches where he just can’t get the barrel to the ball.
Without the fallback of being a platoon, Scott has the defensive flexibility to play any spot in the outfield, but an inconsistent hit tool has kept him in the lower levels of the farm system so far. He’ll get a call to Altoona in 2022, and if he doesn’t hit there, he’ll be Rule 5 eligible next winter and may force the Pirates to make a tough decision regarding him.
In a best case scenario, Thompson proves last year isn’t a fluke and adds depth to the rotation, Nicolas finds that third pitch to stick in the rotation and Scott finally breaks out and lives up to the hype his first-round selection brought. There are a lot of ifs there, and it’s unlikely all three will pan out like that.
The analyst I talked to said that in their opinion, Stallings was traded for a swingman/backend of the rotation starter, a pitcher who will probably wind up as a reliever and a fourth outfielder. If that’s what ends up being the case, it’s a very light return for Stallings, who didn’t need to be traded. He had three years of team control remaining. The only reason to make the trade was to maximize on his trade value being at its highest.
If this return was the best offer available, Stallings could have provided at least this much value with the Pirates, not to mention his off the field intangibles.