Pitt Kickoff: Pickett's shot at history with ACC Championship, Heisman

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Way back in training camp, everyone associated with the Pitt football program made it clear that the objective for the 2021 season was to win the ACC Championship. 

Now, four months later, the Panthers are on the cusp of doing just that with their Saturday matchup with Wake Forest at Bank of America Stadium.

It's been well earned as Pitt only lost to one conference opponent all season and never lost a game by more than three points. The Panthers have the fourth-highest scoring offense in the country with 42.8 points per game. But now they face the third-highest scoring offense in the country in Wake Forest who averages 42.9 points per game.

Kenny Pickett has earned his way to be a finalist for the Heisman Trophy by beating several other respected ACC quarterbacks like North Carolina's Sam Howell and Virginia's Brennan Armstrong, but now he has one last game against Wake Forest's Sam Hartman.

• What: No. 17 Pitt (10-2, 7-1 ACC) vs. No. 18 Wake Forest (10-2, 7-1 ACC)
• When: 8:02 p.m.
• Where: Bank of America Stadium
• TV: ABC-TV
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan
• Satellite: Sirius 85, XM 85, SXM App Channel 85
• Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
• Media notes: Pitt | Wake Forest

TOP STORYLINES

Pickett vs. Hartman: Pitt has been put on a national stage with stout run defense, a stifling pass rush, a top flight receiver in Jordan Addison who should win the Biletnikoff Award, but at the head of all that success has been Pickett's stellar play and leadership.

Pickett's 40 touchdown passes this season is tied for second-most in all of college football with Alabama's Bryce Young, and his 4,066 passing yards are fifth-most in the country. Hartman is not far behind him though, with his 3,411 passing yards and 34 touchdowns both being the ninth-most in the country.

It's a matchup that will get national attention on ABC Saturday night.

"I met Sam at the Manning camp," Pickett said of Hartman. "I know he's a great player. I got a chance to watch him play and how he plays against different defenses. He makes all the throws, he's a competitor, he runs, and I know it's a tall task to beat him Saturday."

Pickett has had an abnormal week preparing for the ACC Championship Game after getting the flu this week, first reported by DK Pittsburgh Sports. Pickett's recovered and practiced throughout the week, so he seems beyond the illness and sources have told DK Pittsburgh Sports that the Panthers' roster won't have to worry about any players missing because of any illness stemming from the team dealing with the flu.

Hartman and Pickett have both been very good decision makers for their offenses without a substantial run game. Pitt's rushing offense averages 156.1 yards per game at 11th in the ACC while Wake Forest's 168.1 rushing yard per game ranks 9th in the conference.

But it's Pickett who's earned national recognition as ACC Player of the Year, ACC Offensive Player of the Year, First Team All-ACC, finalist for the Max Browne Award, finalist for the Heisman Trophy and finalist for the Walter Camp Award. None of that fazes him though, as he's still just focused on being the most prepared quarterback on the field each week.

"It's just about the hard work," Pickett said when asked about his accolades. "I've said it before, all the individual accolades are team oriented. It starts with the guys up front and then everyone else who lines up in the huddle with me. I play with a lot of great players on this team and I'm very grateful for all the hard work they've put in this year."

Pickett has shattered records this year, but now he'll be on a national stage against another top quarterback and a ranked team with the chance to win Pitt's first ACC championship. If he does that with another stellar performance, he'll put himself in a strong position to be just the second Pitt player to win the Heisman Trophy in program history.

Major implications: Forget about the simple payoff of winning Saturday and the gratification it would deliver Saturday night. Instead, think about how the impact of an impressive performance Saturday could have ripple effects for the program that bring plenty of advantages in the coming years.

Sure, winning the ACC Coastal division for a second time and being the only team to do that since Pitt joined the ACC in 2013 is a big deal. So would be the Panthers becoming the first team to win the ACC that isn't Clemson or Florida State since Virginia Tech won the conference in 2010. 

But success Saturday could have the potential to bring a long-lasting impact to Pitt's football program. First, it would give Pitt another national stage and an appearance in the Peach Bowl against a major ranked opponent for another chance to show just how good the Panthers have been this season.

Even beyond that, it would be a sign that Pitt has a program that players should want to be part of moving forward. Pickett could've been an NFL Draft pick last year, but decided to come back and rejoin the Panthers despite the team losing six players to the draft. It's been the best business decision of Pickett's young life, as his performance has catapulted him into the discussion with quarterbacks who should be picked in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Pitt's players have talked about the environment Pat Narduzzi has created all year long, praising it for being a nurturing familial space that has pushed players to be better and to look within the program for resources to become the best versions of themselves. That's been backed up with Pitt recording its first ten-win regular season since 2010 and Pitt being ranked No. 17 by the Associated Press, the highest ranking of the Narduzzi era.

As Pitt prepares for its final two games with Pickett, the inevitable question emerges for who the team might have at quarterback next season. Nick Patti is the team's top backup, but he doesn't come with the experience or pedigree of Pickett. But if Pitt can show it's a serious contender in college football, the answer at quarterback might come from the Transfer Portal.

Every year has quarterbacks transferring across college football to look for the program that will give them the best chance to shine and make their case for the NFL Draft. Joe Burrow transferred to LSU and Justin Fields transferred to Ohio State before both being first round picks over the last two years.

Pitt has a chance to show it should be the top destination for such players in the Transfer Portal, like Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler, who announced he would enter the Transfer Portal this week:

What quarterback wouldn't want to work with the best receiver in college football in Addison, with plenty of talented returning targets like Jared Wayne, tight end Gavin Bartholomew, a good offensive line and a defense with several returning playmakers? Especially if Pickett gets picked in the first round, Pitt would be a place quarterbacks can look at as a premier destination to play next season.

There's still the long term implications of that as well, as Pitt could waive a bigger flag on its recruiting trips in the coming years with an ACC championship the Panthers can brag about. If recruits see Pitt as a potential threat to win the ACC in the coming years, it could be a stage that several players see a chance for themselves to make their case to be ready for the next level.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Calijah Kancey: Pitt's three First Team All-ACC players are Pickett, Addison, and Kancey. Kancey's become the key force up the middle for Pitt's defense with his seven sacks being second-most on the team and his 12 tackles for loss being the most on the team.

Against Wake Forest's top-ranked ACC offense, the Panthers will need that kind of pressure to stop Hartman from taking over the game. Kancey emphasized Wednesday that Pitt has put a plan in place to control the line of scrimmage and neutralize the run-pass-option (RPO) concepts Wake Forest has lived off this season.

"They've mastered the RPO as a program," Kancey said. "They use slow motion with how the quarterback walks with the play. But they haven't seen anyone run traps like our defense does. We have to knock back their offensive linemen to disrupt their play. We still look back on that Western Michigan game. It helps motivate us. We look back on how we struggled that day all the time. I think we're ready." 

Jordan Addison: Pitt's connection of Pickett to Addison has been lethal all season. Addison is a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award for the best receiver in the country. His 1,353 receiving yards is fourth-most in the country while his 17 touchdowns is the most in the nation. He now has the second-most touchdown receptions in a single season in Pitt history behind Larry Fitzgerald's 22 touchdown catches in 2003.

Pickett will need a big game for Pitt to come out on top against Wake Forest, but it will also need Addison's unreal ability as a playmaker. He flashed that in his four-touchdown performance against Virginia to clinch the ACC Coastal division, and the last of which was a spectacular grab that essentially put the game away:

If Addison can create more stellar moments against Wake Forest, the Panthers might be able to run up the score on the Demon Deacons. The sophomore receiver has averaged three touchdowns per game over his last two contests. If he maintains that average for the ACC Championship Game and Pitt's eventual bowl game, he would pass Fitzgerald for the most touchdown receptions in program history.

Damarri Mathis: Pitt's pass defense ranks towards the bottom of the ACC at 12th with 261.1 passing yards allowed per game. Wake Forest's passing offense ranks fourth in the conference with 315.5 passing yards per game and its leading receiver is A.T. Perry, whose 1,112 passing yards ranks 20th in the country and his 13 touchdown receptions ranks second in the NCAA behind Addison's 17.

Perry is Hartman's primary target out of Wake Forest's RPO offense, especially on slants in single coverage. We know Narduzzi's defense lives off defensive backs in single coverage, and you can expect Mathis to draw the responsibility of covering Perry Saturday.

The biggest factor for Mathis will be establishing and maintaining inside leverage while also not getting beat deep. If he can limit Perry, it would force Hartman to find other outlets for the passing game and may buy the time needed for Pitt's offense to take over the game. As the Panthers' top cornerback in his final season, it would be a career-defining moment have a big game.

BEHIND ENEMY LINES

Gurus of the RPO: Wake Forest's offense lives off the RPO, as I showed in my film feature on their offense Thursday. Pitt knows it's put out bad tape against the RPO with its loss to Western Michigan, but teams have tried to attack the Panthers with the RPO and haven't had nearly that kind of success the rest of the season.

"We've gotten better at it," Narduzzi said of Pitt's defending against RPOs Thursday. "But it comes down to making plays in the schemes. We're going to have our opportunities. They're the gurus of the RPO. They do it as good as anyone in the country. I've never see a guy ride the RPO for that long and you can't tell who he's reading, Hartman does a nice job."

Wake Forest's RPO is unique in how it allows Hartman to have more time each play to read the defense. 

"What they do is a belly play," Narduzzi said. "It looks like their quarterback is blocking for a sneak, they're wedge blocking. We have to get penetration and that's not going to be easy. They're big and they know what they're doing. They don't do everything on offense, but what they do is really good. They execute and Hartman is sharp. They're unbelievable on third down."

Narduzzi's right, Wake Forest has the best third down offense that converts 51 percent of their attempts. But Pitt's third down offense is second-best at 47.5 percent, and has the second-best third down defense at 31.3 percent of attempts allowed.

Look for some key third and fourth downs to come with Pitt having to defend the RPO in this game. It could provide season-defining moments and show if the Panthers' defense and coaches can make the adjustment to overcome their biggest weakness. Read my full study of Wake Forest's RPO offense and how it might collide with Pitt's defense here.

Leaky defense: Where Pitt has an edge in this potential shootout is how Wake Forest's defense has not been good this year. The Demon Deacons allow an average of 29.1 points per game, tenth-best in the ACC. That includes giving up 56 points to Army, 58 points to North Carolina, 42 points to North Carolina State, and 37 points to Syracuse. 

Pitt's defense ranks fifth in the ACC with 23.3 points allowed per game, and could give the Panthers the edge in a big game even if it only gets a few key stops. Wake Forest's defense faces an offense that's just as lethal as it's own, and Pitt's pass rush that's racked up 46 sacks, the second-most in the country, could be what puts Hartman in check.

Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons don't have that kind of a unity that's been able to slow down explosive offenses this season. Look for this to be a game where Pickett and Addison connect for big plays to break open Wake Forest's defense.

PREDICTION

Pitt, 45-38.

As much as this should be a shootout, Pitt's defense can be a difference maker in this game with a couple of splashy turnovers that can stop any momentum Hartman and the Demon Deacons pick up. Look for the Panthers' defensive front to create opportunities for those turnovers.

The bottom line for Pitt should be how the offense shouldn't be stopped by Wake Forest. Pickett and company will have to start fast, but it's shown that it can this season. If that happens, a few early turnovers forced by Pitt's defense could force Wake Forest to be one-dimensional and negate the advantage of the RPO that forces the defense into a guessing game.

Look for Pitt to take an early lead and then for the teams to exchange blows the rest of the way. But if Pitt avoids crucial mistakes in the final quarter, that'll be the key to victory that prevents Wake Forest from ever catching up and getting the Panthers their first ever ACC championship.