Analysis: For Dotson, Brisker, Pickett, skipping bowl would make sense

ALTOONA, Pa. -- They don't owe anybody anything. Not their school, their teammates or the fans. They only owe it to themselves to protect their most important investment -- their bodies.

This is a decision where these guys can and should be selfish.

There was a time not too many years ago when a college football player opting out of a bowl game would have been seriously frowned upon. We're talking less than 10 years ago, actually, proving just how quickly things have changed in this discussion.

All because of the enormous amount of money involved. And when, coupled with the risk factor, makes it really easy to accept this reality:

There's very little reason for some football players who are months away from being high NFL draft picks (think top three rounds) to participate in bowl games. Especially lesser bowl games, which, let's be honest, really don't matter.

But what about a prestigious bowl game, such as a New Year's Six game?

And what if the player plays a position where he's less likely to get injured?

Hmmmm. Those are the things that make all of this such an interesting topic.

Because every situation is different.

Let's consider several situations:

JAHAN DOTSON

The Penn State wide receiver has to decide if he'll play in the Outback Bowl. He's a projected first-round draft pick, so it would make perfect sense for Dotson to opt not to play.

Now, as a receiver, there's less of a chance for Dotson to get injured than a running back or linebacker. Then again, Alabama's John Metchie III just suffered a torn ACL in last week's SEC title game against Georgia, so that sort of thing very well could be lingering in Dotson's mind.

Dotson only needs six more catches to tie Allen Robinson's single-season Penn State record of 97, so that could be a motivating factor. But he's already high on many draft boards, so he really can't benefit himself from a draft standpoint in the game.

What will Dotson decide? Tough call on this one. He was asked after the regular-season finale and was non-committal. He's a great teammate and highly respected member of the Penn State program, and the Nittany Lions will need him if they want to beat Arkansas.

My prediction: He'll play

JAQUAN BRISKER

As a safety, he's a defender who hits people. The chance of injury for him is significantly higher, so he'll have to weigh that.

Brisker was named first-team All-American on Wednesday by CBS Sports/247, and his stock is very high. He's expected to be a late first or early second-round draft pick.

He's the kind of player who has everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing a bowl game.

My prediction: He'll sit out

ARNOLD EBIKETIE

The defensive end had a strong season after transferring from Temple and is considered a third-round draft pick. That's not guaranteed, though, and he still could improve his stock if he has a big game going up against an SEC team on New Year's Day.

My prediction: He'll play

KENNY PICKETT

Wow, what an interesting case we have here. The Pitt quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist was non-committal about playing in the Peach Bowl when asked Wednesday on "The Dan Patrick Show." His offensive coordinator, Mark Whipple, just left for Nebraska, so Pickett has to weigh a lot of factors.

You can watch for yourself what Pickett had to say:

I personally would not have a problem if Pickett decides to skip the bowl game. He's a first-round pick, and if he gets hurt, it could cost him millions of dollars.

But there is another side to this, and the bottom line is a lot of people would have a problem with Pickett if he skipped the bowl game.

He's a quarterback. Rules are in place to protect him. He could play and play at a high level with lesser chance of getting injured.

He's going up against the worst passing defense in the country in Michigan State. Everyone has been joking that Pickett could throw for like 700 yards against that defense.

Pitt is in the Peach Bowl. A great bowl game. A New Year's Six game. For him to skip that bowl, when Pitt's program has not enjoyed this kind of success in a long time, would be a really bad look to some people.

I don't cover Pitt, so I don't know anything about Pickett as a person. And I am on the record saying I personally wouldn't mind if he skips the bowl game. His future and those millions of dollars are at stake.

But would Pickett really want to end his college career by skipping Pitt's biggest bowl game in a long time? Seems unlikely to me.

My prediction: He'll play, although it sure didn't sound overly promising in that video clip above.