A year ago, the AFC North was a regular-season powerhouse, the only NFL division to send three teams to the playoffs. The division champion Steelers won 12 games, the Ravens and Browns 11 each.
A year later, the Ravens are the only club among those three with a chance to reach 11 victories, and there’s a real chance that only the division winner will participate in the postseason.
National pundits have delighted in cataloging the division’s missteps, ripping into the teams like batting-practice fastballs. From Baker Mayfield’s struggles to John Harbaugh’s two-point-conversion flops to the Steelers’ failings along both front lines, critics are wondering if anyone is fit to win this division.
Context is important when analyzing the regression, and let’s start by reminding folks that the AFC North is one of just two divisions — the AFC West is the other — in which all four clubs have at least seven wins. None of these franchises are in line to draft Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux or Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson without a significant trade up.
But this weekend’s slate of games offers a glimpse into why 2021 has been such a slog for the Steelers (7-6-1), Browns (7-7) and Ravens (8-6). The Steelers face the surging Chiefs (10-4), and their best hope of victory might lie in the COVID-19 test results for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The Browns meet the Packers (11-3) who, like the Chiefs, look to be in Super Bowl form. The Ravens, meanwhile, battle the Bengals (8-6), who throttled Baltimore, 41-17, on Oct. 24.
Where are the Jaguars, Texans and Giants when you need them?
Last season, the Steelers, Browns and Ravens benefitted from a remarkable bit of good scheduling fortune. Each played a combined 10 games against the AFC South, NFC East and the Bengals. Seven of those nine opponents finished with losing records, including the NFC East champion Washington Football Team and the one-win Jaguars.
You can only play the teams on your schedule, and Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore capitalized in spectacular fashion, combining for a 27-3 record. The Steelers went 8-2. The Ravens went 9-1. The Browns went 10-0.
Those marks were aided by key injuries to quarterbacks Dak Prescott (Cowboys) and Joe Burrow (Bengals). And, yes, the Steelers somehow managed to lose to the immortal Ryan Finney, whose 23-yard touchdown gallop highlighted a shocking 27-17 setback at the hands of the four-win Bengals.
While teams will never use strength of schedule as a reason or an excuse for outcomes — we know Mike Tomlin rarely thinks “globally” — it cannot be discounted. At the start of the 2020 season, the Ravens, Steelers and Browns were judged to have the first-, second- and fourth-easiest schedules, respectively.
That changed dramatically this season as the AFC North drew the AFC West and NFC North in the rotation. Add the much-improved Bengals to the schedule stew, and you see why the records aren't exactly twinkling. The Steelers entered the campaign with what was considered the league’s hardest schedule. The Ravens were next in line, while the Browns were ninth.
With three weeks remaining, here’s how the Steelers, Ravens and Browns have fared against those two divisions and the Bengals: The Steelers are 2-6-1. The Ravens are 6-3. The Browns are 5-3.
That’s a combined 13-12-1, and it factors heavily into the division standings.
This is not to suggest strength of schedule makes a massive difference in the overall fortunes of a club from season to season. Give any fan base Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and they will like their chances over the course of any 17-game schedule.
Naturally, players and coaches minimize schedules and what divisions are up next in the rotation. T.J. Watt said when the Steelers’ schedule is released in the spring, he’s focused on two dates.
"More than anything, you look to see if you’re playing on Thanksgiving and if you’re playing on Christmas,” Watt said. “When the family is coming to town. That’s pretty much it.”
Clubs concentrate on their own strengths and weaknesses, believing them to be the reason for success and failure. No argument here. The Steelers would be hard up for points against any schedule with their offensive line. The Ravens’ list of injuries, which started in the preseason, is stunning. As for the Browns, well, is there another franchise in sports that struggles more to cope with high expectations? That, and they simple can’t score touchdowns in fourth quarters.
But as much as teams like to believe their fates rest solely in their hands, non-divisional schedules do play a part. The Chargers and Raiders, who each went 3-1 against the AFC North, represented stiffer competition than the Jaguars and Texans. Even the Lions and Bears were problematic.
So we’ll see how it goes this weekend. Maybe the Steelers and Browns can spring road upsets to give their playoff hopes a boost.
And in case you’re wondering, the Steelers face the AFC East and NFC South next year.
MORE FROM PRACTICE
• The Steelers will be without tight end Pat Freiermuth, who remains in concussion protocol, and defensive lineman Chris Wormley (groin) and linebacker Buddy Johnson (foot) against the Chiefs. They all have been ruled out. The team did receive a bit of good news as defensive lineman Montravius Adams was activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
We likely won't know until tomorrow whether Kelce and Hill will be fit to play for the Chiefs.° The Steelers will be wary of the Chiefs ball-hawking defense, which ranks fifth in the NFL with 25 takeaways. The ball figures to be in secure hands with running back Najee Harris. The rookie, who leads the league in touches with 311, has yet to fumble this season. In fact, he’s only fumbled once in the past five seasons, dating to his time at Alabama.
“The main thing about being a running back or a ball carrier is protecting the ball,” Harris said.
He's well aware of the stat that's circulating on the internet about his one fumble in the past five years.
“A lot of you guys have been jinxing me,” he said smiling. “I have been seeing a lot of stuff about that.”
• Harris enters the weekend ranked sixth in rushing with 891 yards, but he’s struggled to produce many big carries. Running behind a young and patchwork offensive line, he’s managed just three attempts of 20 yards or more with his longest carry going for 23 yards.
He asked running backs coach Eddie Faulkner to put together clips of all of his runs, and he plans to watch them in the next few weeks.
“It takes a team effort to create that kind of a hole, I guess,” Harris said diplomatically. “If you take a look at all the good running teams, I guess you could look at the Colts, a lot of them are executing their assignments. We're not just there yet, I guess, but we are going to get there. It just takes time.”
• The NFL doesn’t do a great job statistically of breaking down how much time a team spends leading or trailing in games through the course of the season. There is at least one indicator, however, of how often a club trailing thanks to the website Pro Football Reference.
The site lists the number of offensive snaps a team takes while leading, trailing and tied. These are ugly numbers for the Steelers. They have taken 521 snaps while losing in games this season, accounting for 58.6 percent of all snaps. That is well ahead of any division rival. Here is the breakdown percentage of snaps when trailing followed by the actual total:
Steelers 58.6 (521).
Ravens 42.1 (416).
Bengals 41.6 (359).
Browns 35.3 (302).
The Steelers are actually closer to the Lions (64.9) in the percentage of snaps taken while trailing than any of their division rival.
• Harris said Cam Heyward bought him a small Christmas tree this week when learning the running back didn’t have one at his place. “Nobody in my life has gotten me a tree,” he said.
Heyward has been among several teammates calling Harris “The Grinch” for not getting into the spirit of the holidays.
THE INJURY REPORT
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Defensive end Chris Wormley, tight end Pat Freiermuth and linebacker Buddy Johnson were all ruled out Friday afternoon. By the looks of it, everybody else should be good to go barring any unforeseen setbacks Saturday.