ALTOONA, Pa. -- Bowl games often come down to who really wants to be there, which team has the most to play for and which side is more focused.
It will be very interesting to see how a short-handed Penn State team that has had six key players opt out will fare in those areas against Arkansas in Saturday's Outback Bowl in Tampa.
From an intangible component, it's easy to assume Arkansas would be more excited and have more to play for in this game. The Razorbacks have struggled for most of the past decade and will be playing in their first bowl game in five years, plus their first New Year's Day bowl game since 2008.
Even though Penn State had a down year, the Arkansas folks absolutely would consider this a nice signature win to end their solid season under second-year coach Sam Pittman.
Penn State, on the other hand, actually got a nice break getting selected to the Outback Bowl despite its 7-5 record. The Nittany Lions were expected to go to a lesser bowl but wound up with the nice New Year's Day contest instead.
Still, this has been a tough season for Penn State, which has lost five of its last seven games after reaching No. 4 in the country and dreaming about a College Football Playoff berth.
THE ESSENTIALS
• What: Outback Bowl: Penn State (7-5) vs. No. 21 Arkansas (8-4)
• When: Saturday, noon
• Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
• Forecast: 84°, sunny
• TV: ESPN2
• Satellite: Sirius XM 83, online 83
• Box score: ESPN
• Media notes: Penn State | Arkansas
Even if the Lions truly are psyched up about this game, there's the tangible reality that they will be severely short-handed from a talent and experience standpoint. Star wide receiver Jahan Dotson opted out of the bowl game, as well as five defensive starters: DE Arnold Ebiketie, S Jaquan Brisker, DT Derrick Tangelo, LB Brandon Smith and LB Ellis Brooks.
The good news is that we'll get to see a number of younger players have an opportunity to showcase what they can do with all of those starters out.
The bad news is that starters are starters for a reason, and backups are backups for a reason, plus the starters Penn State is losing are all NFL-caliber players.
Arkansas will be without leading receiver Treylon Burks, who opted out, but the Hogs come into this game with a strong rushing attack that finished second in the SEC. That ground attack very well could decide this game.
Here's my game breakdown.
OFFENSE
Penn State: Sean Clifford should be fully healthy with the bowl rest, and he is capable of having a big game all things being equal. The problem is, all things are not equal when you take Dotson out of the mix. Dotson caught 91 passes and was far and away the best receiver on the team. Parker Washington is a good receiver, but now he's the No. 1 guy and will command No. 1 receiver attention for the first time in his college career, so it will be interesting to see how he does.
Penn State's running game has been a disaster all year, and James Franklin seemed hell bent on getting that fixed in the regular-season finale against Michigan State. He doesn't want to go an entire season without a 100-yard rusher, so look for Keyvone Lee or Noah Cain to get a lot of opportunities to see if they can get on track.
I still think Penn State's best opportunity is to just fire up 50 passes and see what happens. Use the tight ends and backs out of the backfield more as receivers, two things the offense did not do well during the regular season.
Arkansas: It's no secret what Arkansas is going to do. They Hogs can run the ball, ranking 12th in the nation with 217.3 yards per game, and they're going to see if they can run over Penn State's defense without the five starters.
The Razorbacks have four players who have rushed for between 498 and 592 yards, so they get a lot of people involved. Trelon Smith leads the team with 592 yards rushing, while Dominique Johnson leads the way with seven rushing TDs.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson has thrown for 2,578 yards with 21 TDs and only three interceptions while completing 66.9 percent. He won't have Burks to throw to, and that's a big loss since he had 66 catches and no one else on the team has more than 21.
The Hogs know Penn State will be looking to sell out to stop the run, so don't be surprised if they catch the Lions by surprise through the air a good bit.
Advantage: Arkansas
DEFENSE
Penn State: Who knows?
How's that for some hard-hitting analysis?
Seriously. There's absolutely no way to know what the Lions will do on defense without five starters. The last time they were missing this many defensive starters in a game was the 49-10 loss at Michigan in 2016.
We can look forward to guys trying to fill new roles, such as Jonathan Sutherland at linebacker or more playing time for Keaton Ellis or burning some redshirts. But the bottom line is the defense will be completely different from anything we saw during the regular season, AND it is going up against a good offense.
I just don't have a lot of faith that the Lions' defense will be able to stop the Razorbacks.
Arkansas: The Hogs have been good at times this season against decent competition, but also allowed 52 against Ole Miss and 42 against Alabama. Then again, Penn State's offense isn't anywhere near as good as those two.
If Arkansas had to face Dotson, I would think Penn State's offense would have a chance for some big plays. But without Dotson, the Hogs will do what everyone else does, and that's stack the box to stop the running game and take their chances to see if Clifford can beat them through the air with Washington and the tight ends.
I don't think Penn State can do that consistently enough, and again, I have little faith in the Lions' running game.
Advantage: Arkansas
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
Penn State: There's no question James Franklin was distracted this season by all the uncertainty about his future. And that clearly hurt this year's team.
Now that he's got his 10-year contract, Franklin can focus back in on getting the team ready to play. And if the Lions had all their usual starters, I would pick them to win this game.
But this will be a different Penn State team than we saw all season without Dotson and the defensive starters. Yes, the backups will be fired up to get their opportunity, and that could go a long way. But if Penn State gets down, I could see this one getting out of hand to a degree.
Arkansas: Sam Pittman has done an excellent job in his two seasons to turn the Hogs back into a quality program. They had really fallen on some hard times in recent years, and Pittman changed the culture quickly.
This is not a great Arkansas team by any stretch. And again, I would pick Penn State to win if it had all its players. But the Lions don't have all their starters, and you truly have to wonder how motivated they are for this game.
I can guarantee you that Arkansas is motivated for the game, because a win in a New Year's Day bowl would be a huge accomplishment for Pittman as he builds the program.
Advantage: Arkansas
PREDICTION
I see Arkansas' offense having a big day against the revamped Penn State defense, both on the ground and even through the air at times.
Arkansas 33, Penn State 23
